8 Dynasty Players You’ll Regret Holding | Sell High or Sell Low Before It’s Too Late! (Ep. 392)
Ryan Wormeli, Pat Fitzmaurice and Scott Bogman went through dynasty sell-high and sell-low candidates across positions, debating whether hype around rookies and situational changes (Carnell Tate, Chris Olave, Quinshawn Judkins, Kenneth Walker, tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Ronde Gadsden) means it's time to cash out before value drops. They closed with a mailbag covering dynasty trade evaluations and rookie quarterback/receiver rankings.
This episode of the FantasyPros Dynasty Football Podcast has Ryan Heath, Scott Bogman, and Pat Fitzmaurice building a sell-high and sell-low list for dynasty managers, then working through a mailbag of trade evaluations. The core framework: sell-high candidates are players whose value may never be better than right now, whether due to age, injury history, or unsustainable efficiency, while sell-low candidates are guys you should cut bait on even at a discount because the situation has genuinely soured.
The arguments
Carnell Tate's dynasty ECR of WR14 is indefensible given the Titans' situation. Fitzmaurice argues Tate is ranked ahead of established veterans like Garrett Wilson and DeVonta Smith despite Tennessee's offensive line grading 31st in composite preseason rankings and Cam Ward still unproven; he floated trading Tate for Nico Collins or James Cook. Bogman pushed back that 24 (his own ranking) is too low and preferred "late teens," noting Tate's dynasty trade-chart value of 12 is being carried by analyst Dave Braugler-style buzz rather than proven production.
Chris Olave is a classic peak-value sell despite (or because of) his new contract. Bogman argued the Saints' extension and health optimism have inflated Olave's price right as target competition (Chan, Tyson, Lance) arrives and Tyler Shough's efficient stretch came against soft defenses. Fitzmaurice, ranking Olave WR18, is even more skeptical, worried Jordan Tyson could match him as a target earner.
Quinshawn Judkins' rookie-year workhorse numbers mask a bad situation. Fitzmaurice noted Judkins is RB14 despite Cleveland's offensive line ranking dead last (32nd) in composite rankings, unresolved quarterback play, a thin pass-catching profile, and a serious late-season ankle/fibula injury. Bogman agreed he's a "listen" candidate at RB16, open to moving him for a rebuild-appropriate veteran like Jonathan Taylor or even Christian McCaffrey if contending.
Ken Walker is the show's biggest disagreement — Bogman calls him a peak-value sell, Fitzmaurice calls him a buy. Bogman argued Walker's proven inability to handle a massive workload (255 touches max, zero 20-touch games before the playoffs) makes him a sell now that Chiefs hype has inflated him to RB9, especially with Isiah Pacheco insurance and Elijah Mitchell's collegiate volume in the mix. Fitzmaurice strongly disagreed, citing Walker's explosive playoff usage (22.5 touches/game) and Andy Reid's screen-game pedigree, saying he'd happily overpay; Ryan noted he'd pay fair market price, which Bogman still considers an overpay.
Both tight end sell-highs are driven by target competition and unsustainable efficiency rather than a bad team. Fitzmaurice targeted Dalton Kincaid, whose gaudy per-target efficiency (2.70 yards per route run) came on only 302 snaps due to a lingering PCL injury Buffalo may manage again in 2026; he'd deal Kincaid for names like Chuba Hubbard or Rico Dowdle. Bogman targeted Ronde Gadsden, noting 36.6% of his production came from two huge games while the Chargers added Charlie Kolar and David Njoku; both hosts agreed the “outlier weeks” inflate his TE1 dynasty ranking beyond what the offense's pecking order (Ladd McConkie, Omarion Hampton first) supports.
Sell-low candidates get cut even without full value because the underlying situation has changed. Fitzmaurice targeted Brian Thomas Jr., arguing his rookie explosion was inflated by Mac Jones's small sample and that new target competition (Parker Washington, Jacoby Myers, Travis Hunter) plus Trevor Lawrence's historical preference for slot/tight-end targets caps his outlook; he'd take a low WR2/RB2 in return. Bogman targeted Cortland Sutton, whose target-share metrics were dwarfed across the board by newly added Jaylen Waddle, arguing this is simply the right time to move on from an aging receiver behind younger talent.
What it means for your roster
- Shop Carnell Tate now, especially if he has a hot September — the hosts agree his current WR14 (or even Bogman's 24) may be as good as it gets; target a rebuilding team and ask for a proven veteran (Nico Collins, James Cook, even Jonathan Taylor) rather than picks.
- Move Chris Olave and Dalton Kincaid while the market is optimistic — both are getting inflated by recent good news (extension, past efficiency) that the hosts think won't repeat given incoming target competition.
- Ken Walker is a buy-low/hold, not a sell, for at least one host — if you own him, don't panic-sell into hype; Fitzmaurice would pay a premium (up to an early first) and thinks the committee/injury-history concerns are overstated.
- Be willing to sell Quinshawn Judkins for a win-now veteran if you're contending — both hosts see Cleveland's offensive infrastructure as a multi-year drag on his ceiling.
- Cut bait on Brian Thomas Jr. and Cortland Sutton even at a discount — Fitzmaurice would accept a low second-round rookie pick or a marginal RB2/WR2 for Thomas; Sutton is a clear age/target-competition sell against Waddle.
- In the Carnell Tate vs. Zay Flowers debate, Fitzmaurice and Bogman prefer Flowers given his top-7 finish in a run-heavy, banged-up Baltimore offense; Ryan is the lone dissenter favoring Tate's youth and ceiling — treat this as a toss-up trade rather than a clear win for either side.
“You want to get that guy off the mountain before he falls off the cliff.” — Scott Bogman
Players in this episode
↑ Both hosts call a trade of Kyren Williams, Blake Corum, Jayden Reed, and Cade Otton for Gibbs 'highway robbery' in Gibbs' favor.
↑ Used as the benchmark for peak dynasty value and as the only player hosts would rank ahead of Jeremiah Smith.
→ Fitzmaurice floats him as a possible trade target in exchange for Carnell Tate.
→ Fitzmaurice suggests he could be a fair return for Carnell Tate given Cook's proven production versus Tate's rookie risk.
↑ Discussed as a hypothetical target a contending team might trade for in exchange for Judkins.
↑ Preferred over Caleb Williams by both hosts due to his rushing upside (891 yards) combined with solid passing ability.
↑ Ranked ahead of Caleb Williams in a superflex startup question due to proven track record, despite being older.
→ Hosts like his pairing with Ben Johnson and improvisational arm talent but rank him behind Jayden Daniels due to accuracy concerns and less rushing production.
→ Bogman suggests a rebuilding team might give up Nico Collins for Carnell Tate.
→ Bogman argues he's at peak value amid Chiefs hype and could be capped by a committee with Bashard Smith/Emmitt Johnson; Fitzmaurice and Wormeli are buyers, citing his playoff workhorse stretch and fit in Andy Reid's screen game.
↓ Bogman calls him a sell-high after his big extension, worried new weapons like Jordan Tyson will cut into his volume; Fitzmaurice is even lower, ranking him WR18.
↑ Both hosts rank him as a top-2 dynasty receiver prospect, comparing him favorably to Jamar Chase and Calvin Johnson-tier prospects rather than Marvin Harrison Jr.
↑ Cited as clearly outproducing Cortland Sutton in efficiency metrics, establishing him as Miami's clear top receiver.
↑ Fitzmaurice and Bogman rank him ahead of Carnell Tate, citing his 1,200-yard season despite Baltimore's low pass-attempt volume and expectation of better QB health/play-calling this year.
↓ Fitzmaurice and Bogman both see him as overvalued at RB14 given Cleveland's terrible offensive line, unresolved QB situation, and lingering ankle/fibula injury from last season.
↓ Fitzmaurice views him as a sell-high at WR14 given the Titans' poor offensive line and Cam Ward's inconsistency; Wormeli and Bogman think his ranking (WR14-24 debate) is inflated by rookie hype.
↓ Fitzmaurice sees him as a sell-low, boom-or-bust vertical receiver behind Travis Hunter and Parker Washington, facing a brutal early cornerback schedule; Bogman and Wormeli expect modest improvement over last year's dip but not a return to rookie-year numbers.
↓ Bogman calls him a sell-low given Jalen Waddle's clear target-efficiency edge and Sutton's age; Fitzmaurice is more neutral, noting Sutton still has back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons.
↓ Fitzmaurice flags a lingering PCL injury limiting snaps despite elite efficiency numbers, making him a sell even at a discounted price (e.g., for Trey Harris or Rico Dowdle-level assets).
↓ Bogman notes over a third of his production came from just two games, and new additions (Njoku, Kohler) plus target priority to McConkie/Hampton limit his outlook; Fitzmaurice agrees he's not a lock for a starting role.