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Establish The Run Fantasy Football · Tuesday, September 22

Team-by-Team: Everything To Know Heading Into Week 3 (Episode 1025 with Evan Silva and Adam Levitan)

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Adam Levitan and Evan Silva go team-by-team through Week 2, dissecting a slate marked by major injuries (Caleb Williams, Jaden Daniels, Jackson Dart, Saquon Barkley) and offensive surprises (Chargers' collapse, Bryce Young's leap, Deshaun Watson's revival). They weigh whether early-season struggles/breakouts are real or matchup-driven and update buy-low/sell-high stances on several skill players.

# PLAY ACTION Deep-Dive Brief: Establish The Run, Episode 1025

This episode is Evan Silva and Adam Levitan's team-by-team sweep of Week 2, built around a simple thesis: small samples are lying to everyone, injuries are reshaping half the league's backfields and passing games, and the hosts want listeners to separate real signal (role changes, target shares, offensive line collapses) from noise (weather-affected box scores, one-game outlier performances). They move through all 32 teams flagging usage shifts, injury fallout, and specific buy-low/sell-high calls for the rest-of-season Top 150.

The arguments

Caleb Williams' hamstring injury is a best-case outcome, but the Bears passing game context through two weeks is genuinely confusing. Silva notes the grade-one hamstring diagnosis is a relief given how gruesome the injury looked, but he's skeptical Williams plays Monday against Philadelphia. Levitan and Silva agree Colston Loveland's near-invisibility (one catch for three yards before the injury) is partly explained by facing a tough Brian Flores defense in bad weather, and both are comfortable buying low on Loveland and Luther Burden despite the ugly start.

Bryce Young's fantasy QB2 surge under new play-caller Brad Idzik is more matchup-driven than transformational. Levitan flags Young's move to fourth in pass-rate-over-expectation, but Silva pushes back that Carolina has only faced the Bears and Falcons — two defenses uniquely bad against the pass. Both agree Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker's combined 49% target share is legitimately strong regardless of opponent quality.

The Chargers offense is a full-blown disaster, and the hosts are split on whether Mike McDaniel is to blame. Silva points to Joe Alt getting dominated by Max Crosby and cites Nate Tice's read that Omarion Hampton doesn't fit McDaniel's scheme; Levitan cites Daniel Popper's framing that the Chargers bet the franchise on McDaniel as OC and it's failing. Both entertain the idea McDaniel could be fired mid-season, while noting the receiving corps behind Ladd McConkey (Quentin Johnston, Trey Harris) simply isn't good enough to matter.

Jaden Daniels' second left-elbow dislocation could be season-ending, forcing a real downgrade across the Commanders' skill players. Silva notes some reports suggest Daniels could return in a brace, but both hosts are low on information. Levitan argues Marcus Mariota isn't a dead-end streamer given his 2024 track record, but confirms McLaurin, Diggs, and Sam Cook are all getting downgraded in the rest-of-season rankings.

Travis Etienne's usage in New Orleans makes no sense and shouldn't be trusted as signal. Levitan is baffled that a $48M free-agent signing is playing behind Alvin Kamara, calling it inexplicable given Kamara's poor 2025 metrics. Silva agrees there's no rational explanation and says to just accept it, but both maintain a hold/buy stance on Etienne, betting playing time normalizes over the season.

The Chuba Hubbard and Kenneth Walker backfield situations are the two clearest "smash" roles in fantasy right now. Levitan says Hubbard's role is unambiguous now that Jonathan Brooks has re-aggravated his groin (with real doubt about whether Brooks can stay healthy as a pro). On Walker, both hosts have him at three overall in their rest-of-season rankings, with Silva calling him the best running back in football and noting his missed-tackle numbers are absurd, though the failed goal-line conversions are a small red flag.

49ers and Rams have found effective backfield/receiver splits that mirror each other. Silva compares Christian McCaffrey/Kalen Sanders to Kyren Williams/Blake Corum — the "lead back gets the juice from a complementary piece" model — and both agree CMC's receiving and goal-line role keeps him safely in the top-10 range despite touch-share erosion.

What it means for your roster

  • Buy low on Colston Loveland and Luther Burden — both hosts see the poor Week 2 usage as context-driven (weather, elite defense) rather than a real ceiling problem; Loveland projected in the round 5-6 range depending on Caleb Williams' return timeline.
  • Hold, don't drop, Travis Etienne — the hosts call the Kamara-over-Etienne usage inexplicable and expect it to correct; scoop him up if someone's selling.
  • Chuba Hubbard and Kenneth Walker are locks to rise in rest-of-season rankings — Walker is being valued third overall behind only Gibbs and Bijan; Hubbard's role is now unambiguously the lead back in Carolina.
  • Fade or bench Chargers skill players outside Ladd McConkey — Quentin Johnston and the tight ends (Kolar, Njoku both on IR) offer no reliable production; Tucker Gadsden could be a deep-league/TE-premium streaming option.
  • Downgrade the entire Commanders passing-game corps (McLaurin, Diggs, tight ends) pending clarity on Jaden Daniels' elbow, with Marcus Mariota as a stopgap who isn't hopeless given his 2024 rushing/passing floor.
  • Monitor injury-driven waiver adds: Rashod Bateman (Ravens, if Zay Flowers lingers), Jalen Warren (Steelers, if Rico Dowdle's toe injury persists), and Emmanuel Wilson (Seahawks, if Jadarian Price's chest injury keeps him out) were all flagged as actionable streaming/handcuff plays.
“He's just not that good... but he needs so many targets because he's not that dynamic.” — Adam Levitan

Players in this episode

Josh Allen · QB, BUF

↑ Five total TDs in a 41-point outburst; considered the overwhelming MVP favorite through two weeks amid a much more aggressive, vertical pass-heavy scheme.

Puka Nacua · WR, LAR

→ Missed the game with a hip issue, clearing the way for Devante Adams' huge performance; his eventual return will reduce Adams' target share.

Ja'Marr Chase · WR, CIN

↑ 7 catches, 175 yards(?)/2 TDs on 9 targets against a respected Texans secondary after a quiet Week 1; called a game-changing talent who 'moves different.'

Christian McCaffrey · RB, SF

→ Ceding early-down carries to Kalen Black (10 vs 7) similar to Rams' Corum/Williams split, but remains the goal-line back and primary receiver, kept at #10 overall in rest-of-season rankings.

Jonathan Taylor · RB, IND

↑ 28 touches, 132 total yards, 2 TDs, playing every situation; called an awesome, unstoppable asset regardless of team context.

James Cook · RB, BUF

↓ Left with a shoulder injury after a slow Week 1; situation to monitor.

Amon-Ra St. Brown · WR, DET

↑ Target share up to 35% (from 29% last year); considered a top fantasy WR again.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba · WR, SEA

↑ 42% target share (up from 34% last season), called one of the best receivers in the NFL alongside Jefferson and Chase.

Derrick Henry · RB, BAL

↑ Caught 3 of 3 targets (plus another negated by penalty) in the passing game under new OC Todd Monken/Declan Doyle scheme, seen as a positive receiving trend.

De'Von Achane · RB, MIA

↓ 26 opportunities but offense can't reach the end zone, now fantasy's RB23 through two weeks; hosts push back on 'volume will fix it' narrative.

Saquon Barkley · RB, PHI

↓ Left the game with what's being evaluated as a possible shoulder/neck issue after an ineffective return from a reported stinger; MRI pending.

Drake Maye · QB, NE

→ Struggled again without AJ Brown, throwing to a thin receiver corps (Mack Hollins, Kayshon Boutte, Pop Douglas); considered matchup-dependent DFS-only play.

Ashton Jeanty · RB, LV

→ 57 opportunities through two weeks vs. Mike Washington's 11, but inefficient outside of good matchups (21 carries for 48 yards, 4 catches for 15 yards vs. Chargers).

Omarion Hampton · RB, LAC

→ Played mostly well with 23 carries but cost the team the game with a critical fumble; questioned as a fit for Mike McDaniel's scheme.

Chase Brown · RB, CIN

↑ Given 25 opportunities vs. Samaje Perine's 3, continuing strong lead-back usage.

Kyren Williams · RB, LAR

→ Ceding real work to Blake Corum (14 vs 13 opportunities) but retains all red-zone/goal-line work (6 carries inside the 20 vs Corum's 0), seen as safe unless injured.

Jeremiyah Love · RB, ARI

→ Ankle looked fine but was out-snapped by Tyler Allgeier 32-20 even while trailing; hosts expect his role to grow but note team isn't rushing to a one-back approach.

Kenneth Walker · RB, KC

↑ 24 carries, 117 yards, plus 10 targets (21% share) and 6 catches for 61 yards; called the best running back in the NFL right now, ranked 3rd overall in rest-of-season rankings.

Jayden Daniels · QB, WAS

↓ Suffered a second dislocation of his left elbow, same injury as last year; unclear timeline, possibly out for the season; Commanders skill players getting downgraded as a result.

Caleb Williams · QB, CHI

↓ Suffered a grade 1 hamstring injury that looked scarier than it was; unlikely to play Monday night in Week 3 against the Eagles.

Trey McBride · TE, ARI

↑ 8 catches on 10 targets despite tough Seattle matchup; continues elite chemistry with Jacoby Brissett (12 TDs in 14 career games together).

Nico Collins · WR, HOU

↓ Out injured, forcing the offense through Dalton Schultz; hosts call his absence a major offense-crippling factor, timeline murky (50/50 for Week 3).

Brock Bowers · TE, LV

↑ Expected to return in Week 3, which should further limit Tucker's target share.

Malik Nabers · WR, NYG

↓ Left briefly with a subluxed shoulder (history of shoulder issues), finished with just one catch.

Chris Olave · WR, NO

↑ Playing at an elite level, now considered fantasy's #3 WR behind JSN and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Rashee Rice · WR, KC

↓ Only a 10.8% target share, confirming the pre-season fade; hosts don't see the situation improving much given Kelce and Walker's roles.

Javonte Williams · RB, DAL

↑ Played 44 of 55 snaps despite modest box score due to game script; role remains elite according to hosts.

Bucky Irving · RB, TB

↑ Clearly separating from Kenny Gainwell (51 vs 23 snaps, 17-2 carries, 22-12 routes); expected to maintain lead role.

Justin Herbert · QB, LAC

↓ Held under 200 yards, threw two picks, took three sacks in an ugly loss; offensive line issues (Joe Alt struggling) compounding problems.

Ladd McConkey · WR, LAC

→ Played through a cracked rib, ran 22 routes but only 3 catches for 35 yards; still the receiver hosts trust most in this offense.

Travis Etienne · RB, NO

→ Only 11 opportunities to Alvin Kamara's 15 despite being the big free-agency investment; hosts call the usage split inexplicable but recommend holding/buying, not dropping.

Colston Loveland · TE, CHI

→ Only 1 catch for 3 yards in a brutal Vikings matchup; hosts view him as a buy-low given tough defensive matchup context, would value him around round 5-6 in rest-of-season rankings.

Cam Skattebo · RB, NYG

→ Led Giants backs with 34 snaps and 16 opportunities, but Singletary's passing-down role and Tracy's special-teams-only usage make hosts less excited about his receiving ceiling than after Week 1.

Dak Prescott · QB, DAL

↑ Went 26-of-31 for 279 yards and four TDs in a near-perfect bounce-back game against Washington.

Tetairoa McMillan · WR, CAR

↑ Combined with Jalen Coker for 49% of Bryce Young's targets; strong early usage in the new offense.

TreVeyon Henderson · RB, NE

↑ Out-carried Rhamondre Stevenson 16-6 and out-snapped him 33-20 after Stevenson fumbled on the first drive; expected to remain in a roughly even committee going forward.

Luther Burden · WR, CHI

→ Led team with 7 targets (20% share) but only 3 catches for 32 yards; hosts still comfortable buying low despite frustrating start and Khalif Raymond stealing targets.

Jaxson Dart · QB, NYG

↓ Suffered an MCL sprain after just seven snaps against the Rams; hosts clarify he got hurt in the pocket, not from scrambling, pushing back on pre-draft health concerns.

Jaylen Waddle · WR, DEN

↑ Bounced back with 10 targets after a quiet Week 1; team invested a first and third-round pick in him and made a point to get him the ball.

Quinshon Judkins · RB, CLE

→ 5 catches on just 12 routes after Dylan Sampson's absence; needs to develop pass-game role given inefficiency on the ground (2.3 YPC).

Davante Adams · WR, LAR

↑ 8 catches, 195 yards, 2 TDs without Puka; hosts say this puts to bed any 'washed' talk, though context (no Puka, weak Giants secondary) mattered.

Jadarian Price · RB, SEA

↓ Lost goal-line work to Emmanuel Wilson and then suffered a chest injury (x-rays negative); situation described as concerning for his outlook.

Jameson Williams · WR, DET

→ 17% target share but poor catch rate (6-of-13) driving disappointing box scores; hosts still view him as a buy-low given his volatile-but-explosive profile.

Brock Purdy · QB, SF

↑ 20-of-22 for 287 yards, 2 TDs, no INTs plus a rushing TD; called an underrated fantasy QB.

Kyle Monangai · RB, CHI

↑ Outplayed Roschon Johnson in routes (16 to 10) despite coming off a knee injury, surprising the hosts and showing he isn't going away.

Christian Watson · WR, GB

↑ Part of strong two-man passing-game usage with Golden; expected to benefit further from Reed's absence.

Rico Dowdle · RB, PIT

→ Left with a toe injury (carted, then returned, then left again); Jalen Warren could be a PPR-friendly play if Dowdle misses time.

Tucker Kraft · TE, GB

↑ Full-time role coming off ACL, running 27 routes on 32 dropbacks (58 of 59 snaps); expected to benefit further from Reed's absence.

Chuba Hubbard · RB, CAR

↑ Fully in control of the backfield, scored a short touchdown, expected to move up significantly in rest-of-season rankings.

Blake Corum · RB, LAR

↑ Getting a near-even split of touches with Williams; would be a top-five asset if Kyren were to go down.

Parker Washington · WR, JAX

↑ 34.6% target share through two games, called truly elite usage continuing from his late-season breakout last year.

Marvin Harrison · WR, ARI

↓ Down to 0.53 yards per route run, being badly outplayed by Kendrick Bourne and Michael Wilson; hosts question if it's mental and whether he'd be in the league without his father's name.

DK Metcalf · WR, PIT

↓ Part of a passing game that's 0-for-9 on 20+ yard throws this season with Aaron Rodgers; some drops noted but overall lack of downfield production.

Baker Mayfield · QB, TB

↓ Ranked 26th in QBR through two weeks, extending a stretch of poor play dating back to last season; growing concern expressed.

Brian Thomas · WR, JAX

↓ Looking much worse than his rookie year, shying from contact and jumping unnecessarily; hosts unsure if it's a Mac Jones carryover issue.

George Kittle · TE, SF

↑ 14 routes on 25 dropbacks (shared role with Luke Farrell) but produced 4 catches, 80 yards, and a TD; role could expand in closer games.

Oronde Gadsden · TE, LAC

↑ Ran 15 routes with Kolar and Njoku both landing on IR; hosts see him as a potential streaming/tight end premium start given expanded role.

Aaron Jones · RB, MIN

→ Given a near-workhorse role (23 carries, 42 snaps) in poor weather conditions, though hosts think weather skewed the run-heavy game plan.

Jonathon Brooks · RB, CAR

↓ Aggravated groin injury, getting a second opinion; hosts question if he's simply an injury-prone player who may never separate.

Tyler Shough · QB, NO

↑ Went 27-of-34 for 252 yards and a TD, continuing strong play and running ability from second half of Week 1.

Alec Pierce · WR, IND

↓ Re-aggravated his foot/ankle injury, likely out until midseason; called a disastrous outcome for a $114M contract.

Dallas Goedert · TE, PHI

↓ Suffered an MCL sprain, week-to-week, forcing Eagles into more 11 personnel and Zach Ertz signed off the street as depth.

Jake Ferguson · TE, DAL

→ Scored twice but role remains limited (23 routes on 36 dropbacks), production seen as touchdown-dependent and not fully sustainable.

Jayden Reed · WR, GB

↓ Suffered a scary back injury and was hospitalized overnight; unclear timeline for return.

Jordan Addison · WR, MIN

→ 51 routes on 54 Vikings dropbacks but only 16% target share (7 targets); hosts think share can rise to 18-20% but voice some worry he 'may not be that good.'

Woody Marks · RB, HOU

↑ Out-touched David Montgomery again (8 carries/5 catches vs. Montgomery's 6 carries/2 targets), expected to see even more work in negative game scripts.

Josh Downs · WR, IND

↑ 7 catches for 72 yards after a slow start; benefiting from Pierce's absence and Keenan Allen's poor play.

Cam Ward · QB, TEN

↓ Under 200 passing yards in 10 of 18 career starts and 3-15 as a starter; hosts remain skeptical despite improved weaponry.

Jonah Coleman · RB, DEN

↑ Got first extended look with Dobbins/Harvey both banged up—10 carries for 39 yards and a TD plus 3 catches; hosts like him as a talent (compared to Deuce McAllister-type build).

Matthew Golden · WR, GB

↑ Combined with Christian Watson for 17 of Jordan Love's 29 attempts; usage has been a smash even before Reed's injury, setting up well going forward.

Bryce Young · QB, CAR

↑ Fantasy's QB2 through two weeks under new OC Brad Idzik with a much more aggressive, vertical pass-heavy approach, though schedule (Bears, Falcons) has been soft.

Terrance Ferguson · TE, LAR

↑ Second on team in routes behind Adams with Puka out; versatile alignment (slot, backfield, inline) with 6 catches, 54 yards, a TD on 9 targets, seen as a potential WR3 replacement in the passing game.

Tank Bigsby · RB, PHI

→ 13 carries, 33 yards and a TD with goal-line work in Saquon's absence; considered a viable start if Saquon misses time, though not a clear workhorse over Will Shipley.

Denzel Boston · WR, CLE

↑ Led team in targets (7) with another long TD catch; considered a strong best-ball asset given his contested-catch/deep-threat profile.

Adonai Mitchell · WR, NYJ

↑ 12 targets (29% share) after a quiet Week 1; seen as an every-down player capable of spike weeks but not a must-start yet.

Kaleb Johnson · RB, GB

→ Getting significant work in a three-man committee with Marshawn Lloyd and Chris Brooks; Lloyd fumbled and was benched, and a possible Josh Jacobs suspension outcome/return looms over the backfield.

Tre Tucker · WR, LV

→ 5 catches, 119 yards, TD on 7 targets in a somewhat lucky game; viewed as a deep-league-only play once Brock Bowers returns.

Aaron Rodgers · QB, PIT

↓ 86 dropbacks resulting in only 408 yards (20th most); hosts worried about the Steelers' passing game and Rodgers' comfort level throwing deep versus checking down.

Rashod Bateman · WR, BAL

↑ 7 catches, 88 yards, a TD on 9 targets while Zay Flowers was out with a hamstring injury; surprised hosts with his step-up game.

Michael Penix · QB, ATL

↑ Returning in Week 3 vs. Green Bay after three career ACL tears; hosts see him as a major offensive upgrade over Cooper Rush but uncertain given lingering knee confidence questions and a leaky O-line.

Deshaun Watson · QB, CLE

↑ 24-of-30, 238 yards, 2 TDs, no INTs in a stunning win at Tampa; best play seen from him since his Houston days, will start Week 3 home opener.

Darren Waller · TE, CAR

→ Scored two short touchdowns, but hosts flag red-zone TE usage as annoying for other pass catchers given Waller's history of scoring short TDs.

Marcus Mariota · QB, WAS

→ Takes over for Daniels facing a tough Seattle matchup in Week 3; hosts note his past rushing/passing production gives some floor with Diggs/JCM in the room.

Xavier Legette · WR, CAR

→ Unable to play, contributing to concentrated target shares for McMillan and Coker.

Tyson Bagent · QB, CHI

→ Expected to start Week 3 vs. Eagles; hosts note team is high on him as a game-manager pocket passer, tough matchup ahead.

Demarcus Robinson · WR, SF

↓ Suffered a high-ankle sprain, further thinning the 49ers' receiver room behind Deebo Samuel and Mike Evans.

Jimmie Hunt · WR

↓ Played only 7 offensive snaps and 37 of 62 defensive snaps, far below expectations for a No. 2 overall pick; called a potentially disastrous usage decision.

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