QB position preview: Who we love and hate at ADP
Matt Harmon and Scott Pianowski kick off position preview week with a deep dive on quarterbacks, breaking down the top-12 at Yahoo ADP with red/yellow/green light designations. The central argument is that 2026 is the deepest QB class in memory, so both hosts are fading the top tier (Allen, Jackson, Daniels, May, Burrow) to prioritize running back and wide receiver, instead shopping the QB7-QB12 arbitrage tier (Herbert, Williams, Lawrence, Prescott, Goff) and loading up on late sleepers. They also cover breaking training camp injury news to Laramie Tunsil and Luther Burden and how it reshapes the Commanders and Bears passing games.
# Yahoo Fantasy Forecast: QB Position Preview
Matt Harmon and Scott Pianowski kick off position preview week with a full breakdown of the 2026 quarterback landscape, arguing this is the deepest QB position in memory — deep enough that both hosts plan to actively avoid the top tier and shop almost exclusively in the middle class, letting their leaguemates fight over the vanity names.
The arguments
Laramie Tunsil's likely season-ending triceps injury materially downgrades the Commanders offense and specifically dings Terry McLaurin. Harmon notes Tunsil is a top-three left tackle whose absence threatens Jayden Daniels' pass protection, and while backup Brandon Coleman is a real starter (not a scrub), Harmon is moving McLaurin from a green-light "40th overall" ADP-beater down closer to a hold, since McLaurin's per-target profile skews vertical (5th in air yards/target over two years) rather than the quick-game "layup" receiver Stefon Diggs represents — a profile more exposed if protection worsens. Pianowski agrees the offensive line is a Jenga piece and that no one ever says "great offense, bad O-line."
Quarterback should be the last starting position you fill on your roster. Pianowski calls the position a subway system — miss one train, another comes in five minutes — and says he's hard-fading the top tier (Allen, Jackson, Daniels, May, Burrow) because the roster-construction cost at RB/WR isn't worth the marginal QB points. Harmon agrees, adding that in Superflex he wants aggressive waiver-wire activity on backup QBs (Purdy came from exactly this approach in a dynasty league) rather than paying up in the top tiers.
The QB7–QB12 tier (Herbert, Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence, Prescott, Goff, Bo Nix) is where both hosts want to live. Both flag Herbert/McDaniel, Caleb Williams/Ben Johnson, and Lawrence/Liam Cohen as green-light plays because the play-callers are trusted even if the pass-catcher pecking order is murky. Harmon adds Bo Nix as an under-discussed green light — a proactive runner in a strong offensive ecosystem (good line, Jalen Waddle added) who's finished QB7 two years running yet is being drafted like an afterthought, likely due to lingering injury memory from the AFC title game.
Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson are red-light plays purely on cost relative to arbitrage options. Pianowski's core argument: Burrow (18.7 PPG, 2023–25) offers almost nothing over Dak Prescott (18.4 PPG) or even Jared Goff (17.85 PPG) at a fraction of the price, given nearly identical team infrastructure (two big receivers, bad defense). On Jackson, both hosts question whether Baltimore's passing game has a real touchdown scorer (Flowers and Bateman haven't delivered), pushing scoring back toward a Derrick Henry-centric run game rather than Jackson's arm or legs.
Patrick Mahomes at ADP 100 is a red-light fade because the offense may run through Kenneth Walker, not the passing game. Pianowski cites three straight years of Kansas City finishing outside the top-15 in scoring, plus concerns about Xavier Worthy's re-injured shoulder and Rashee Rice's risk profile. Harmon's counter-scenario: Mahomes only beats ADP if Jalen Coker/Xavier Legette-type receiver Xavier Worthy underperforms and rookie/depth piece "Cyrus Allen" (their shared late sleeper) becomes the real man-coverage beater in the offense.
Kyler Murray has flipped from a confident green light to a genuine yellow-red concern within the last two months. Pianowski reports whispers that Murray is "still having to win the job," receivers reportedly frustrated with his timing in camp, and points to Jacoby Brissett unlocking Arizona's skill players the moment Murray left last season as damning evidence. Both hosts now treat Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison as diminished shares tied to this uncertainty.
Deep-league sleepers Tyler Shough, Jordan Love, and Baker Mayfield are being under-drafted relative to their proven or probable environments. Pianowski notes Shough was a top-12 fantasy QB in 4 of his final 6 starts last year behind Kellen Moore's play-calling and a talented Saints skill group. On Love, both expect Matt LaFleur to finally stop rotating pass-catchers and feed Jacobs/receivers/Tucker Kraft with real target volume. Harmon champions Mayfield (ADP 126) as the market's most overcorrected QB, pointing to three straight seasons as a top-12 cumulative scorer despite an offensive line and Zach Robinson play-calling that Harmon rates highly.
What it means for your roster
- Draft strategy: Avoid Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Drake May, and Joe Burrow at their ADPs (all top-tier/second-tier); shop instead in the QB7–12 range (Herbert, Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence, Prescott, Goff) or even later (Bo Nix).
- Fade/downgrade: Move Terry McLaurin down from a prior green-light, ahead-of-ADP ranking given the Tunsil injury and his vertical-receiver profile; treat Rashee Rice, Justin Jefferson, and Jordan Addison as diminished shares given Kyler Murray's murky QB1 status in Minnesota.
- Target for Superflex: Prioritize a "best QB2" strategy (e.g., Prescott/Goff pairing) over paying up for one elite QB1; be aggressive on waiver claims for backup QBs (Darnold, Stroud, Ward, Brissett) rather than drafting a third QB proactively.
- Late-round/sleeper claims: Add Baker Mayfield (ADP 126) as a value target given his top-12 cumulative finishes three years running; consider Tyler Shough and Jordan Love as strong Superflex QB2/QB3 options; Malik Willis is a legitimate wait-and-grab QB1-in-flashes play in one-QB leagues.
- Injury-driven pause: Treat Luther Burden as a "don't draft into injury" situation and shift Bears WR equity toward Rome Odunze if Burden's groin injury lingers.
- Fade at ADP: Patrick Mahomes (100th overall) and Brock Purdy (downgraded from green to yellow) both carry more risk than price suggests — Mahomes because Kenneth Walker may be the offense's engine, Purdy because of an aging, injury-prone supporting cast (Mike Evans not practicing).
“I challenge anybody to screw up quarterback this year.” — Scott Pianowski
Players in this episode
↓ Best pure quarterback but a red-light pick due to opportunity cost of paying up; hosts say they aren't drafting him this year.
→ Both hosts love him personally (AJ Brown, Romeo Doubs, McDaniels) but still consider him a red/no-draft due to price versus depth of the position.
→ Previously a target, but Harmon has cooled after the Tunsil injury; Yahoo ranks him ahead of ADP as QB3 at 55th overall.
↓ Red light; nearly identical 3-year scoring average to Dak Prescott, so there's no clear edge to justify his higher price and injury history.
↓ Red light due to cost and lack of a proven dynamic touchdown-scoring weapon; Derrick Henry likely vultures goal-line work.
↑ Green light; Ben Johnson's offense projected as a potential top-five fantasy offense if injuries to Burden/Odunze aren't severe.
→ Yellow light; young, proactive runner who could beat drafters, but concerns about OC Matt Nagy and lack of chemistry with Malik Nabers.
↑ Green light; paired with Mike McDaniel, could challenge for MVP if the offensive line and skill talent stay healthy.
↓ Red light; concerns about a slow start with a new coordinator and banged-up new receivers (Devonta Smith, Makai Lemon hamstrings), plus declining rushing production.
↓ Red light at 100th overall ADP; offense has trended run-first/defense-first the last three years, and Kenneth Walker may be the key offensive piece instead.
↑ Green light; finished last season strong, Liam Cohen a strong play-caller, and career-high rushing numbers expected to continue.
↑ Green light; finished as QB7 in each of his two seasons, added Jalen Waddle, deep pass-catcher room, proactive runner, possibly disrespected at ADP.
→ Downgraded from green to yellow light due to concerns about an aging, injury-prone supporting cast including Mike Evans not practicing.
↓ Suffered a groin injury in camp and will 'miss a little bit of time'; hosts say it's a reason to pump the brakes given his rising ADP.
↓ Downgraded from a green-light target due to the Tunsil injury, his vertical-receiver profile (susceptible to worse pass protection), and being in his age-31 season.
↑ Green light and called possibly the most underrated QB in football; historical resume (36 TDs in 2023, multiple 4,400-yard seasons) supports his ADP as a bargain vs Burrow.
↑ Sleeper green light; expects Matt LaFleur to finally streamline the passing offense around three healthy weapons instead of rotating personnel.
↑ Being drafted ~10 spots behind Burden despite comparable/positive camp buzz; seen as the beneficiary if Burden's injury lingers.
↑ Sleeper green light; industry has overcorrected after losing Mike Evans, but he's finished QB10, QB4, and QB12 the last three years with strong weapons and O-line remaining.
↑ Green light 'arbitrage of the arbitrage'; leads the league in TD passes and yards over the last four years, indoor schedule and strong weapons.
↑ Sleeper green light; finished as a top-12 weekly QB in 4 of his last 6 starts under Kellen Moore, strong chemistry with Chris Olave.
↓ Downgraded from a planned green light to yellow/near-red after reports he hasn't clearly won the Vikings job and has had shaky camp connections with Justin Jefferson.