Jalen Hurts
Hurts enters the year as a low-end QB1 by ADP but a QB2-caliber projection by expected points, with his value split between rushing touchdown equity and a passing offense in transition under new coordinator Kevin Patullo. He's coming off a season without a 300-yard passing game and a dip in tush push conversion, but camp reports point to more work over the middle of the field.
FantasyPros has been the loudest bull, calling him a discount 'cheat code' twice in the last two weeks and betting touchdown regression corrects upward toward Lamar Jackson-level rushing scores. That optimism runs against Yahoo's Matt Harmon, who flagged a shaky new scheme and injury questions around Devonta Smith and Makai Lemon, and Fantasy Focus Football, which named him the tier's most divisive arm given the rhythm-passing shift and fading tush push numbers. The Ringer's crew stayed out of the fantasy debate entirely, just crowning him the best-looking QB in a lighthearted vote.
The line: Draft him for rushing touchdown upside at a discount, but know the passing offense is a real question mark this year.
▼ Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon: Red light; concerns about a slow start with a new coordinator and banged-up new receivers (Devonta Smith, Makai Lemon hamstrings), plus declining rushing production. listen ↗
▲ FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast: Available at a discount (QB6-8 ADP) despite expected fantasy points that would have made him QB2 overall last year; touchdown regression expected upward. listen ↗
▶ The Ringer Fantasy Football Show: Voted the No. 1 hottest quarterback with nearly 45% of first-place votes; hosts called him objectively the best-looking, if a bit 'boring' personality-wise. listen ↗
▼ Fantasy Focus Football: Considered the most divisive QB in the tier due to a shift to a timing/rhythm passing scheme under Kevin Patullo and declining tush push conversion rates; lacks A.J. Brown and a 300-yard passing game last year. listen ↗
▲ FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast: Undervalued 'onesie' cheat code; could match Lamar Jackson's rushing TD upside (14-15) with better weapons/offensive line, and camp notes show improved passing over the middle. listen ↗
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