Fantasy Football Trade Values: WRs & TEs to Buy and Sell Before Week 5 (Ep. 2245)
Ryan Wormeli and Andrew Erickson run part two of their weekly buy/sell trade show, focusing on wide receivers and tight ends ahead of Week 5. They identify buy-low windows on players coming off bad games (Parker Washington, Matthew Golden, Dalton Kincaid) and sell-high opportunities on players riding hot streaks or shaky situations (Terry McLaurin, DK Metcalf), then run through a round of buy/sell/hold on bigger-name receivers.
This is the receivers-and-tight-ends half of FantasyPros' weekly buy/sell trade show, hosted by Ryan Warmly and Andrew Erickson. Beyond individual player calls, the episode's throughline is a strategy lesson: sell-low and buy-low targets should be packaged with neutral players rather than offered as the centerpiece of a trade, because naming a struggling player outright triggers automatic rejections from the other manager.
The arguments
Package deals, not one-for-ones, are the better vehicle for buying low. Erickson argues that when you want to acquire a player whose stock is down, bundling him with a solid-but-unspectacular piece makes the offer harder to reflexively reject than a straight swap. Warmly notes one-for-one trades are easier to evaluate using rest-of-season rankings when both managers agree on value, but Erickson counters that package deals are the more "advanced" technique for actually upgrading a roster. Data pulled mid-show backed this up: true one-for-ones are only about 37% of trades, lopsided (2-for-1 type) deals are about 34%, and balanced multi-player deals round out the rest.
Parker Washington is a buy-low after an uncharacteristic dud. Despite a one-catch, seven-yard week against Cincinnati, both hosts point to 80%+ snap share, team-leading routes run, a long catch wiped out by a boundary step, and Liam Cohen's postgame comment that Washington will "get plenty next week." Warmly suggests flipping a sell-high Tedaroa McMillan (coming off a big Lions game, now on bye) for Washington, since rest-of-season rankings have them back-to-back (WR11 vs WR12); Christian Watson is floated as an alternative sell piece but Warmly prefers the McMillan swap.
Matthew Golden is undervalued relative to teammate Christian Watson. Erickson's pick: Golden actually leads Watson in both targets and air yards this season despite being ranked well behind him, and he just jumped from WR26 to WR21 overnight in consensus rankings. Both hosts cite the Packers' plus schedule (Bears, Cowboys, Lions, Panthers near-term; Bills, Dolphins, Bears, Texans in the fantasy playoffs) and agree Golden is now more attainable than Watson. On a separate Discord question, they lean toward preferring Golden over an injury-flagged DJ Moore (recurring AC-joint/shoulder issue), while acknowledging it's a close, defensible call either way.
Terry McLaurin and DK Metcalf are sell-high candidates riding unsustainable spikes. Erickson sells McLaurin, noting he's scored better with backup QB Marcus Mariota than with Jayden Daniels since 2025 began, carries a below-alpha 22.4% target rate, and faces real injury risk at 31 (Daniels' elbow, Mariota's knee). Warmly sells DK Metcalf after back-to-back good games, distrusting a 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers and a Steelers offense that's only throwing more because Rodgers is under heavy pressure (16 hits, 40 pressures in four games). Both agree McLaurin's market value is comparable to Jalen Coker, Jameson Williams, or Cardinal Tate — all players they'd rather roster.
Dalton Kincaid is a buy despite two ugly games. Erickson leans on efficiency metrics (3.2 yards per route run, 14.2 yards per target, both tops among tight ends) that survived a 17-route, two-target dud, plus Joe Brady publicly admitting in his presser that Kincaid wasn't used enough and the Bills lost partly because of it. Warmly agrees Kincaid can hold top-five rest-of-season value, especially with DJ Moore's shoulder injury clouding his availability.
In the receiver trio round, the hosts split hardest on Malik Nabors. Erickson calls Nabors a buy off his big game with Jameis Winston, holds Devontae Adams (owners shouldn't sell after one bad game following two monster ones), and sells Jalen Waddle given Denver's offensive inconsistency. Warmly instead wants to sell Nabors due to recurring injury concerns, and is torn between Adams and Waddle before leaning toward buying Adams in case Puka Nacua gets hurt again.
What it means for your roster
- Target Parker Washington (WR11 rest-of-season) now; a reasonable cost is a sell-high Tedaroa McMillan, who's one spot behind him in rankings and coming off a bye-week, Lions-matchup spike.
- Buy Matthew Golden before his price catches up further — he already jumped five spots in a day — and consider him a fair side in a DJ Moore trade given Moore's recurring shoulder issue.
- Sell Terry McLaurin now; the hosts peg his realistic trade value at the level of Jalen Coker, Jameson Williams, or Cardinal Tate, not a true WR1.
- Sell DK Metcalf into his two good games rather than waiting for more proof the Steelers passing game is sustainable with an aging, pressured Rodgers.
- Buy Dalton Kincaid as a rest-of-season top-five tight end bet; his efficiency metrics didn't collapse even in a two-target game, and the coaching staff has publicly committed to getting him more involved.
- When shopping any of these sell-candidates, package them with a neutral, productive depth piece rather than naming them as the centerpiece — this avoids the instant-reject reflex the hosts say kills low-value offers.
“It's not about winning. It's about making your team better.” — Andrew Erickson
Players in this episode
→ Erickson wants to buy him off a big game with an improved Jameis Winston, but Wormeli prefers to sell him due to recurring injury concerns/health flags.
↓ Coming off a monster primetime game vs. Detroit's bad defense while Jaylen Cokes(?) and Jalen Coker's teammate questions; suggested as a sell-high trade chip to acquire Parker Washington since he's ranked just ahead in ROS rankings.
↓ Continues to disappoint ('ship taking on water') though hosts debate if he's fallen enough to become a buy soon; for now still viewed as a sell/fade, possibly a hold given an upcoming matchup vs. Dallas.
↓ Coming off a decent game with a touchdown, but hosts are skeptical of the Dolphins' offense under Tua, calling him a sell after the score.
→ Had a down game once Puka Nacua returned; Wormeli sees him as a hold given his track record of big games, while Erickson suggests buying low in case Nacua gets hurt again.
↓ Dealing with a recurring AC joint/shoulder injury that's flared up twice this season; hosts view him as a risky 'ticking time bomb' compared to the healthier Matthew Golden in a rest-of-season swap.
↓ Proposed sell after returning from hamstring injury; has performed better with Marcus Mariota than Jayden Daniels since 2025, has a low target rate per route run (22.4%) for a WR1, and faces QB injury risk with Daniels' elbow and Mariota's knee.
→ Proposed as a trade chip to acquire Parker Washington; hosts note his route percentage dipped slightly last week but mostly dismiss it as noise; ranked ahead of Golden but viewed as getting fewer targets.
↑ Coming off his best game of the season; Erickson leans sell due to the Bears' rotating weekly pass-catcher usage, but Wormeli wants to buy, citing a favorable long-term schedule (Jacksonville, Miami, Buffalo, Green Bay, Detroit) and belief in his talent.
↑ Referenced from part one of the show as a buy given the Packers' favorable upcoming schedule, used to support the Matthew Golden buy case.
↑ Coming off a dud game (1 catch, 7 yards) but still led the Jaguars in routes run and played 80%+ snaps; hosts call him a screaming bounce-back candidate and a buy, suggesting he's attainable now after the down week.
↓ Coming off back-to-back strong games (including 5-115 vs. Cleveland) but hosts want to sell high given lack of faith in 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers' offense long-term; upcoming matchup vs. Sauce Gardner seen as boom-or-bust test.
↑ Posted season-low usage (2 targets, 1 catch) last week but leads Bills in catches on the year with elite yards per route run; head coach Joe Brady publicly admitted he needs to get Kincaid more involved, fueling a buy-low case as a top-5 ROS tight end.
→ Referenced as historically exploiting the Bengals' poor tight end defense, supporting the case that Jaguars pass-catchers (including Washington) should still produce against Cincinnati-style defenses.
→ Cited as having a far higher target rate per route run (30%) than Terry McLaurin, used as evidence McLaurin isn't commanding alpha-level target share.
↑ Struggled against Washington but still ran a full route tree; hosts remain buyers given uncertain target competition (Alec Pierce timetable unknown, Keenan Allen banged up/potential suspension).
↑ Despite a down game (21 yards on 7 targets), he leads Christian Watson in targets and air yards this season and is seen as undervalued relative to Watson; hosts prefer him over an injury-prone DJ Moore in a straight rest-of-season swap.
↑ Suggested as a near even-value swap target for Terry McLaurin, ranked just ahead of McLaurin in rest-of-season rankings amid a surging Panthers passing offense.
→ Rookie third-round pick posting a higher target rate per route run (27%) than Terry McLaurin, cited as a sign McLaurin isn't the clear top target in Washington's offense.