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FantasyPros Dynasty Football Podcast · Wednesday, October 7

Dynasty Trade Block: Biggest Ranking Changes + Live Buy, Sell & Hold Advice (Ep. 407)

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Ryan Wormeli and Pat Fitzmaurice break down the October Dynasty Trade Value Chart, highlighting the biggest risers and fallers a month into the season, including the changing QB hierarchy behind Josh Allen, Kenneth Walker's huge breakout, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba overtaking Ja'Marr Chase as the top dynasty receiver. The back half covers live Dynasty Trade Block listener questions on buy-low, sell-high, rebuild, and win-now trade scenarios.

This episode is FantasyPros' monthly Dynasty Trade Block, pairing reactions to the October dynasty trade value chart update with live buy/sell/hold rulings on listener trades. Ryan Heath Wormley and Pat Fitzmaurice argue the four weeks of real football have produced the most volatile chart update of the year, reshuffling the quarterback and receiver hierarchies in particular.

The arguments

Drake May has slipped from co-QB1 to a clear QB2, but neither host is panicking. Fitzmaurice says May's slow start is a reminder he hasn't fully arrived, yet his confidence as an investor is unshaken, and he'd still take May second behind Josh Allen in a superflex startup — ahead of Lamar Jackson given Lamar's age and mounting injury history. Wormley agrees May stays top-five-ish positionally but wouldn't go as far as valuing him over a top running back like Bijan Robinson or Ja'Marr Chase-tier receiver; he'd only consider a non-QB over May if it's Brock Bowers in tight-end premium.

Several second-tier quarterbacks are moving fast in opposite directions. Brock Purdy, Trevor Lawrence and Caleb Williams climbed past veterans like Burrow and Mahomes, while Jayden Daniels fell due to elbow concerns and a shakier offensive outlook, and Justin Herbert dropped hard as the Chargers' offensive line collapses again. Tyler Shough jumped the most of anyone outside the top five, with Fitzmaurice calling him possibly a better fantasy quarterback than real one; both hosts still say they'd rather roster Herbert than Shough on name recognition and ceiling despite the ugly supporting cast.

Both hosts prefer Fernando Mendoza to Bo Nix despite Mendoza never having played an NFL snap. They view Nix as overvalued by the market, crediting Sean Payton's offense more than Nix's own level of play, and peg Mendoza's floor as a league-average starter with real upside if the Colorado/Indianapolis infrastructure around him is as good as it looks.

Kenneth Walker is the lone top-10 running back riser, now RB5 and closer in value to the top four than to James Cook at six. Fitzmaurice says Walker's workhorse role has revitalized the Chiefs offense and he'd argue for ranking him even higher if not for workload/injury risk; both hosts say they'd trade a young asset like Jeremiah Love or Ashton Jeanty for Walker if they're a top championship contender. Conversely, Omarion Hampton fell to RB8, but both hosts attribute this to a bad Chargers offensive line and a poor scheme fit with Mike McDaniel rather than any Hampton shortcoming, and advise holding rather than selling at a discount.

Jackson Smith-Njigba has overtaken Ja'Marr Chase as the WR1 in the chart, while Zay Flowers posts historically absurd efficiency. Wormley notes JSN's value (91) now clears Chase's (88) with Amon-Ra St. Brown a clear third. On Flowers, both hosts marvel at a yards-per-route-run figure north of six through limited healthy snaps with Lamar Jackson, with Fitzmaurice calling it one of the best efficiency stretches either has tracked. Chris Olave and Flowers both jumped into the top 10, and the hosts view them as near-equivalent dynasty assets.

Marvin Harrison Jr. has cratered to WR45, and both hosts admit there's no clean explanation. Fitzmaurice chalks it up to unmeasurable factors like competitive drive rather than any flaw in the scouting profile, while Wormley still ranks Brian Thomas Jr. ahead of MHJ and says both need a change of scenery to matter again. Parker Washington, by contrast, has rocketed to WR14 and is now valued by the chart as equal to a 2027 early-to-mid first-round pick — both hosts call that fair to slightly conservative.

Tight end order has shaken up beneath Bowers, with Colston Loveland's value sliding toward Tyler Warren and away from the Bowers/McBride tier. Fitzmaurice's concern isn't the slow start itself but that Loveland was a late-season focal point last year and hasn't been featured early this year, while Dalton Kincaid and Kyle Pitts moved in opposite directions — Kincaid up on snap share despite a healed-but-limited PCL, Pitts down to TE12, with both hosts saying they'd flip Pitts for Terrance Ferguson straight up given Michael Penix's apparent preference for Drake London.

What it means for your roster

  • Buy/hold Drake May as a top-two superflex QB investment; the market dip after a slow start is a buying window, not a red flag, per both hosts.
  • Target Kenneth Walker in trades if you're a true contender — both hosts endorse paying a late 2027 first (or a Jeanty/Love-caliber young RB) to acquire him given his workhorse role in KC.
  • Hold, don't sell, Omarion Hampton at depressed value; both hosts frame his struggles as offensive-line/scheme issues, not talent, and expect a buying opportunity once Mike McDaniel's staff situation resolves.
  • Buy Zay Flowers and Chris Olave if available near current prices — both are viewed as paired, ascending assets, with Flowers given a slight efficiency edge.
  • Trade for Parker Washington aggressively; the hosts call paying a late first-round rookie pick (111/112 range) for him a "grand slam," and he's rated as equal to a 2027 104th pick.
  • Sell Kyle Pitts now — both hosts say they'd flip him straight up for the injured Terrance Ferguson given the Falcons' passing-game usage patterns.
  • Don't bail on Carnell Tate despite a ranking dip to WR21; usage metrics (7th in target share, 3rd in air yard percentage) support holding through Cam Ward's slow start.
“He is completely uncoverable... absolutely breaking the sport.” — Ryan Wormeli

Players in this episode

Ja'Marr Chase · WR, CIN

→ Dropped to WR2 behind JSN, though hosts say it reflects JSN's rise more than any decline in Chase.

Josh Allen · QB, BUF

↑ Still the unanimous QB1 in dynasty, with hosts saying age gap and injury risk of alternatives don't change that ranking.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba · WR, SEA

↑ Now the WR1 in the dynasty chart ahead of Ja'Marr Chase, fully living up to hype.

Lamar Jackson · QB, BAL

↓ Hosts now prefer Drake Maye over Lamar long-term given Lamar's ankle injury and mounting injury history.

Drake Maye · QB, NE

↑ Hosts remain bullish despite a slow start, still ranking him as a top Superflex QB2 behind only Josh Allen, citing youth and last year's near-MVP season.

Omarion Hampton · RB, LAC

→ Dropped to RB8 due to poor Chargers offensive line and committee usage under Mike McDaniel, but hosts say don't sell low—talent remains if coaching changes.

Kenneth Walker · RB, KC

↑ Biggest riser among top-10 RBs, now RB5 and closer to the top four than to RB6; hosts say he could arguably be ranked even higher if ignoring workload/injury risk.

Jayden Daniels · QB, WAS

→ Dropped in value due to elbow concerns, but hosts see it as a buy-low opportunity given his rare rushing/passing skill set.

Brock Bowers · TE, LV

↑ Still TE1 despite a slight value dip; hosts say don't lose faith, as he's looked great since returning from injury.

Chris Olave · WR, NO

↑ Big riser, nearly tied with Zay Flowers in value; hosts debate ranking order but both seen as ascending.

Justin Herbert · QB, LAC

↓ Offensive line issues (Slater/Alt injuries) have tanked his outlook; unlikely to produce QB1 numbers this year despite preseason hype.

Colston Loveland · TE, CHI

↓ Dropped to tier two among TEs after a slow start, now tied with Tyler Warren rather than near Bowers/McBride, due to reduced featured usage.

Zay Flowers · WR, BAL

↑ Posting historic yards-per-route-run efficiency (over 6, compared to elite seasons around 3) even with limited healthy snaps alongside Lamar Jackson; hosts call his play 'breaking the sport.'

David Montgomery · RB, HOU

↓ Has looked very bad this season; hosts would rather roster younger Bears backs (Monangai, Corum) than him.

Bo Nix · QB, DEN

↓ Considered overvalued in the market; hosts prefer unproven Mendoza over him currently.

Carnell Tate · WR, TEN

↑ Despite a bad offense, Tate ranks highly in target share, air yards, and first-read percentage, suggesting his WR21 ranking may prove too low after a breakout game vs. Baltimore.

Kyle Monangai · RB, CHI

↑ Hosts prefer him over David Montgomery given age and contingent upside, despite a thumb injury.

Chuba Hubbard · RB, CAR

→ Rose significantly in value as this year's starter in a fun offense, but hosts question his long-term dynasty value and suggest rebuilding teams should sell him.

Parker Washington · WR, JAX

↑ Jumped ~15 spots to WR14 after a breakout month; hosts call him 'just flat out a star' and compare his rookie-pick value to a late/early-mid 2027 first.

Kyle Pitts · TE, ATL

↓ Fell hard to TE12; hosts say they'd trade him straight up for injured rookie Terrance Ferguson, noting Michael Penix rarely targets him.

Marvin Harrison · WR, ARI

↓ Continues to fall, now WR45; hosts call it a disappointing bust so far despite elite draft hype.

Brian Thomas · WR, JAX

↓ Continues falling in value, now ranked just ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr.; hosts hope for a change of scenery/usage.

Tyler Shough · QB, NO

↑ Big riser in the chart; praised as possibly a better fantasy QB than real-life QB despite a rough Monday night game.

Fernando Mendoza · QB, LV

↑ Hosts say they'd rather roster Mendoza than Bo Nix right now, viewing Nix as overvalued and Mendoza's floor as a league-average starter.

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