Late-Round Perspectives: Dave Richard
JJ and CBS Sports' Dave Richard break down three weeks of fantasy surprises, highlighting disappointing new play-callers, a brutal running back landscape, and the shocking emergence of Kalief Raymond in the Bears offense. They then run through a rapid-fire drop/hold evaluation of struggling veterans like Marvin Harrison Jr., Brian Thomas Jr., Justin Herbert, Drake May, and Chris Godwin, plus some under-the-radar waiver stashes and buy-low running backs.
This episode features CBS Sports' Dave Richard joining the Late-Round hosts for a week 3-into-4 reset, built around one core idea: when your preseason reasoning is proven wrong, drop it immediately and deal with what's actually happening on the field rather than what you hoped would happen. That principle gets applied across new-coordinator disappointments, the Bears' receiver room, and a run of midseason drop/hold calls.
The arguments
New play-callers have mostly underwhelmed, with a few shocking exceptions. Dave points to the Chargers, Giants, and Bucs as offenses that look unprepared under new play-calling, while flagging Brad Idzik in Carolina and Clint Kubiak getting three touchdowns out of Kirk Cousins as the surprising success stories. His takeaway is that the industry gave too much credit to too many new coordinators heading into the season.
The running back landscape is unusually barren, and several hyped pass-catchers have busted. Dave singles out Emeka Egbuka, Colston Loveland, and Jameson Williams as players who've topped out as low-end WR2s or unreliable bench stashes, while JJ notes the league had a hot, high-scoring week one that has since reverted to the flatter, two-tier landscape fantasy has seen in recent years.
Preseason priors should be dropped the moment the reasoning behind them is invalidated — not after some arbitrary sample size. Dave cites Malik Nabors (fine once Jaxson Dart got hurt) and Drake May (he benched May across every team the moment A.J. Brown went down and Baker-level line issues emerged) as easy calls, versus Egbuka, where the injury to Baker Mayfield rather than Egbuka himself is what sank the outlook.
Khalif Raymond, not Loveland or Odunze, is the real beneficiary of the Bears offense, and the industry miscast Chicago's receiver room entering the year. Dave backs this with hard numbers — roughly 70% snap share, a target-per-route-run rate near 26%, catch rate over 90% — and compares the arc to Russell Gage's 2020 season (WR3-5 production, 9-11 PPR points weekly) as the realistic ceiling/floor. JJ agrees Odunze is stuck running deep routes (17-yard aDOT) while Raymond and Luther Burden soak up the quick, high-value targets Ben Johnson's scheme creates, calling this one of the more instructive lessons of the season on why aDOT alone isn't predictive without volume attached.
The Dolphins backfield (Ollie Gordon, Jaylen Wright) isn't worth heavy FAAB, and Malik Washington/Greg Dulcich look like the better siphon targets off Malik Willis's quick-game tendencies. Dave notes Miami has run only 26 non-garbage-time snaps and been inside the five twice all season, calling that profile disqualifying for Gordon specifically. Both hosts agree Braylon Allen was the better speculative add this week for managers chasing immediate RB2 production rather than a long-shot timeshare.
On drop/stash calls, Dave is willing to cut Chris Godwin and lean toward moving on from Justin Herbert in 12-team leagues, while holding Brian Thomas Jr. over Marvin Harrison Jr. He argues Herbert is missing safeties and avoiding his best receivers because defenses have learned Chargers' weak links are better targets than Ladd McConkie; JJ separately flags Trey Harris as a speculative Chargers add. Both agree BTJ is more valuable to Jacksonville's offense (and thus more tradeable/sellable) than Harrison is to Arizona, since Arizona has no in-house replacement for Harrison's downfield-clearing role.
What it means for your roster
- Add Khalif Raymond now in all formats — Dave has already rostered him everywhere and projects a realistic floor/ceiling similar to 2020 Russell Gage (WR3-5, ~9-11 PPR points/game), not a one-week fluke.
- Fade or bench Rome Odunze until Chicago sees more man coverage; his 17-yard aDOT and sub-15% target share make him boom/bust at best behind Raymond and Burden in the weekly target pie.
- Don't spend significant FAAB on Ollie Gordon or Jalen Wright; target Malik Washington and Greg Dulcich as cheaper plays tied to Miami's quick-passing usage, and keep an eye on Jarquez Hunter as the next man up once the current committee fails.
- If choosing between a committee stash and immediate production, prioritize the chunk-week option (Braylon Allen) over a long-term bet in a muddled backfield — points-per-game beats survivorship.
- Drop Chris Godwin before Brian Thomas Jr., Quentin Johnston, or Marvin Harrison Jr. in standard 12-team leagues; hold BTJ specifically because Jacksonville's offense still bends around him and because a trade (if it happens) would likely cost a real draft asset, not a waiver-wire churn.
- Consider benching/dropping Justin Herbert in shallower leagues given his coverage-reading issues and receiver corps injuries; buy low on Drake May in dynasty but keep him benched in redraft until A.J. Brown is fully healthy again.
“I root for the players that I tell people to start.” — Dave Richard
Players in this episode
→ Struggled badly without AJ Brown and behind a weakening offensive line; hosts say hold on bench until Brown returns healthy, and view him as a buy-low dynasty asset given last year's strong play.
→ Hosts are less concerned about him than Nabors, viewing him as a thunder-lightning complement who should retain a role and goal-line value.
↑ Looking improved post-ankle injury and viewed as the Cardinals' key offensive weapon this week against the Giants.
↑ Seeing strong per-target efficiency and increased volume, now preferred by hosts over Brock Bowers for rest-of-season outlook.
→ Outlook tanked after Jackson Dart's injury and poor Jameis Winston play, but hosts remain hopeful once J.J. McCarthy or better QB play returns, given his track record producing with bad quarterbacks.
↓ Missing safeties and throwing ill-advised deep balls; hosts recommend dropping him in 12-team leagues due to poor coverage reads and weak receiving corps.
↓ Miscast as a focal point of the Bears passing game; has been a disappointing 'shiny bench piece' you can't trust given his lack of target share so far.
↓ Flashed big rookie potential early but situation worsened with Baker Mayfield's decline and now Jalen Daniels' insertion, cratering the Bucs passing offense.
→ Despite early disappointment, flashed real ability after the catch in Week 3 and is getting short, high-percentage targets similar to Raymond; viewed as a legit piece of the passing attack.
→ Getting consistent ~10 PPR points in recent games; a reasonable buy-low target for managers needing a running back body, though price should reflect modest production.
↓ Cited among the season's most disappointing pass catchers, now viewed at best as a low-end WR2.
↑ Looking decent with a favorable pass-catching matchup this week; viewed as an interesting RB3/flex given JK Dobbins' struggles.
↓ Being used mainly on deep routes (17-yard aDOT) with only ~12% target share, making him inconsistent; hosts fear this role continues unless defenses shift to more man coverage.
↓ Considered a 'sacrificial X' receiver drawing coverage downfield with inconsistent production; Cardinals have no incentive to trade him, but he's barely startable, though a Giants matchup could produce a spike week.
↓ Schedule/coverage data soured hosts on him in August; still valuable enough that Jacksonville won't trade him, but he's facing shadow coverage and the offense doesn't need him weekly—droppable only in smaller leagues.
↓ Post-injury he hasn't looked the same, and with Tez Johnson emerging, hosts consider him droppable in 12-team leagues.
↑ A murky IR stash candidate who could reclaim value once healthy, viewed as better than Trey Benson and Marshawn Lloyd.
↓ Rough start to the season; hosts essentially write him off, joking they don't know who he is anymore.
↑ Host's bold take: projected to be a top-15 or even top-20 wide receiver this week, jokingly extended to 'WR1 for the next four years.'
↑ Undersized but explosive; hosts like stashing him as a potential big-play option in the Chargers backfield.
↑ A 10-year veteran who has emerged as a 70% snap, ~26% target-per-route player catching over 90% of targets; hosts view him as a legitimate WR3 or better given Ben Johnson's scheme and Caleb Williams' checkdown tendencies.