Players to Trade For & Trade Away - Fantasy Football Podcast for 9/30
The Footballers break down early-season trade market inefficiencies after three weeks of play, highlighting buy-low wide receivers and running backs whose underlying metrics outpace their touchdown production, plus sell-high candidates riding unsustainable scoring. They also preview a defensive, low-scoring Thursday night Steelers-Browns matchup and field mailbag questions on RB2s, tight ends, and WR depth charts.
This episode is built entirely around trade value three weeks into the season — identifying players whose box-score production lags their underlying opportunity (buy-low) and players whose touchdown-heavy stat lines are unlikely to hold (sell-high). Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright also work through a cluster of mailbag trade scenarios and preview a low-total Thursday night Steelers-Browns game with thin start/sit value.
The arguments
George Pickens is being undervalued because his advanced metrics don't match his box score. Mike points to Pickens' target share, targets per route run, and yards per route run all trending up versus last year, with zero touchdowns and no 20-yard catch through three weeks dragging down his perceived value. Jason and Andy agree, noting Pickens is nearly even with CeeDee Lamb in targets (25 to 26) and that Dallas' receivers face the league's third-easiest rest-of-season schedule.
Jeremiah Love's breakout is happening now, and the trade window is closing. Jason argues Love's 19.4-point, 26-opportunity week three performance is a real, sticky usage shift for a top-five draft pick on a bad defense that will be trailing often. He floats trading DeAndre Swift straight up for Love (Andy agrees) and debates Ashton Jeanty, where Andy pushes back that Jeanty belongs in the same top tier as Love rather than being traded away for him.
Chase Brown's slow start is red-zone randomness, not a talent or role problem. Jason notes Brown ranks top-10 in routes run, targets, and total opportunities among backs, but Cincinnati has run only six plays inside the 20 in the last two weeks combined (31st in the league), suppressing his scoring. Both hosts frame him, plus Cam Skattebo and Josh Downs, as buy-low targets whose price should be below their true rest-of-season outlook.
Brock Purdy is a sell candidate because his ecosystem is collapsing even though his play is elite. Mike argues Purdy is a legitimate top-5/top-10 quarterback but that the position is replaceable off waivers, and the 49ers' receiver injuries (Mike Evans's health, Trent Williams's recurring neck issue) make this the moment to flip him to a QB-needy team. Jason agrees with the logic but doubts the market will actually pay QB2 prices for Purdy given his pre-season ADP.
Christian Watson's touchdown rate is unsustainable, and Matthew Golden is the better buy. Jason argues Watson won't finish with anything close to 23 touchdowns and that his target total (29) is barely ahead of Golden's (30) with nearly identical yards-per-catch; he'd try to flip Watson for Chris Olave or Garrett Wilson. Mike, who drafted Watson, agrees the sell-high logic is sound and flags a possible hamstring tweak as added reason to move him now rather than wait.
Deebo Samuel's production is manufactured and won't hold. Jason points out roughly half of Samuel's routes this year are running-back-style routes with a 3.4-yard average depth of target, meaning his fantasy points are gadget-play dependent. He suggests packaging Samuel to a receiver-needy team for a struggling young wideout (Roome Dunze, Jordan Tyson types) before his value disappears entirely.
Puka Nacua is simultaneously the best trade-for and trade-away candidate, so the right move is to hold if owned and avoid acquiring given the injury risk. All three hosts wrestle with Nacua's unresolved health status; Mike's rule of thumb is hold him if you have him, don't trade for him if you don't, since he could either be fine or need surgery.
What it means for your roster
- Buy George Pickens now — the hosts expect his touchdown drought to end and believe he's being valued as a tier below CeeDee Lamb when the season-long numbers argue otherwise.
- Trade for Jeremiah Love aggressively — moving DeAndre Swift straight up is framed as a clean win; moving a Jeanty-or-better asset is debated but not dismissed.
- Target Chase Brown, Cam Skattebo, and Josh Downs as discount buy-lows whose opportunity metrics outpace their current price.
- Shop Brock Purdy to a quarterback-needy league-mate and use the return to upgrade a more replaceable position.
- Sell Christian Watson at peak value, then pivot to acquire Matthew Golden, whose underlying numbers are nearly identical minus the touchdown spike.
- Shop Deebo Samuel for a younger, cheaper receiver before his gadget-play scoring dries up.
- For Week 4 starts: play Jalen Warren over any Steelers hesitation, start Braylon Allen over Travion Henderson, sit DK Metcalf if you have any alternative, and get Tre'Quan Fannin into lineups given his rising target share.
“He's your biggest bat in either direction.” — Andy
Players in this episode
→ Called the biggest 'swing' trade chip in fantasy right now — hold if you have him, don't trade for him if you don't, given uncertainty over a potential injury/surgery.
↑ Hosts noted he's reaffirmed as the clear 'dude' in Dallas's passing game after early-season questions, getting downfield shots alongside Pickens.
↑ Off to a slow start (RB14/22/30 weekly finishes) due to Cincinnati's lack of red-zone opportunities, but hosts view him as a clear buy-low given he's the unquestioned lead back in a good offense.
↑ Called a top-five rookie RB talent whose workload spike (19.4 points, 26 opportunities) last week is expected to stick; hosts suggested trading for him even over established backs like DeAndre Swift or Kyren Williams/Chuba Hubbard.
↑ Ranked among the top rest-of-season assets because Michael Penix Jr. is funneling nearly all passing production to him.
↑ Dealing with a hamstring injury but considered a great buy-low/trade-for target given his locked-in WR1 role once healthy, with a chance to return in Week 4.
↑ Despite zero touchdowns through three weeks, his target share, routes run and yards per route run are strong, and Dallas has a favorable rest-of-season schedule, making him a buy-low trade target before touchdowns start coming.
↑ Ranked very highly (top-5 rest-of-season) and viewed as a strong target in trades involving Christian Watson.
→ Hosts expressed concern he isn't the clear No. 1 target in Chicago's offense, making him a riskier hold than Tucker Kraft.
↑ Praised as a buy-low after a sloppy, low-yardage game; still got 20 carries and 4 targets, showing the workload is secure.
→ Hosts said he's a boom/bust flier with upside but no guaranteed volume, so Braylon Allen is the safer start this week.
↓ Ranked near the bottom of the league in yards per carry, rush success rate, and yards before contact, making him a 'don't mess around with' flex play despite talent.
→ Currently RB6 in fantasy output, but hosts said they'd trade him straight up for Jeremiah Love given Love's higher ceiling.
↑ Praised for strong efficiency and explosive plays while filling in, and considered a must-start given volume and talent.
↓ Named a trade-away candidate; hosts argue he's overperforming relative to his situation (injured weapons around him) and quarterbacks can be streamed off waivers, so now is the time to sell.
↓ Currently WR4 overall on 4 touchdowns, but hosts say his target share/yardage profile is comparable to Matthew Golden's, meaning his TD pace (23-pace) is unsustainable and he's a prime sell-high, especially given his hamstring injury history.
↑ Preferred over Colson Loveland and Isaiah Likely rest-of-season due to target consolidation in Green Bay amid other injuries.
↓ Hosts advised sitting him if possible against Cleveland's tough defense in an ugly, low-scoring matchup.
↑ Had 17 targets and is viewed as a strong No. 2 option who could finish top-15/16, but hosts say trade him for Nico Collins if possible since Collins is the clear WR1.
↓ Placed on IR with a neck injury that looks indefinite to season-ending, impacting Green Bay's receiver target distribution.
↑ Host called him his favorite buy-low target right now, noting opportunity outpaces production; a trade partner wanted a third-round pick for him.
↑ Nearly identical target share and yards-per-catch profile to Christian Watson, making him a strong trade-for target if his owner doesn't realize his similar underlying production.
↓ Flagged as a trade-away candidate since much of his production comes from gadget/backfield touch plays (3.4 aDOT, half his routes are RB-style), making his points unreliable going forward.
↑ With Breece Hall out, Allen is the clear lead back to roster/start over Isaiah Davis or Tyrod/Trevion Henderson, aided by an improved offensive line.
→ Went for huge FAAB bids (~80+) on waivers, but hosts cautioned it's risky given Miami's poor offense and unclear role certainty versus Jaylen Wright.