Buy Low & Sell High Trade Targets Ahead of Week 4 + Worry-O-Meter (09/30 Fantasy Football Podcast)
The FFT crew reviews early-week waiver FAAB activity on Dolphins backfield pieces, then dives into buy-low/sell-high trade targets, bust and steal-of-the-draft candidates, and closes with start/sit and worry-o-meter debates for Thursday Night Football and several high-profile names like Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley. The overarching argument is that running back and receiver values are swinging wildly based on small samples, so managers should exploit name-brand overvaluation (sell-high) while targeting committee backfields and underperforming but talented pass-catchers (buy-low).
This episode of Fantasy Football Today is a Worry-O-Meter Wednesday hybrid: Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath run through buy-low/sell-high trade targets for Week 4, rate how nervous they are about Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley and several other names, and close with Thursday Night Football start/sit calls for Steelers-Browns. The through-line is that running back scarcity should drive trade strategy right now, while several preseason "locks" — Hurts, Barkley, Colston Loveland, Ladd McConkey — are trending in the wrong direction enough to warrant real, if not panic-level, concern.
The arguments
Running back buy-lows should target backfield committees, not just stars. Dave argued that with starting-caliber backs scarce, the smartest trade play is acquiring both backs in a crowded committee from different managers — Vikings' Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason, Jets' Breece Hall, Saints' backfield pieces behind Alvin Kamara — so you can platoon your way to a weekly starter. He flagged Chase Brown as the single best true buy-low at the position, worth paying close to second-round value for, and named cheaper committee flyers (RJ Harvey, Woody Marks, Keaton Mitchell) as low-cost adds for managers desperate for an RB2.
DJ Moore is as cheap as he'll get, but the timing is debatable. Jamie pushed Moore as a buy-low given his 8-and-10-target workload in his two healthy games despite a shoulder injury. Adam pushed back that a Patriots-then-Rams stretch makes this a bad week to pay full price, while Jamie countered that if the acquisition cost is low, the near-term schedule shouldn't matter.
Davante Adams should be sold now, even for Saquon Barkley straight up. Jamie's case: Adams is playing above the role he'll have once Puka Nakua returns, and last year's data shows Nakua scored roughly 50% more fantasy points per game without Adams on the field. Dave went further, saying he'd rather have DeAndre Swift than Barkley right now, a stance Adam and Heath weren't ready to endorse.
Bucky Irving's value is at its ceiling and should be flipped before the schedule gets ugly. Heath flagged the Jaden Daniels elbow/surgery timeline, the Packers-Cowboys stretch ahead, and the reduced passing-game role that tends to accompany a scrambling rookie quarterback as reasons to sell Irving now, ideally into Chase Brown.
Several preseason favorites look like legitimate bust risks. Jamie pointed to Colston Loveland, whose target competition from Kalif Raymond has undercut the expected breakout. Dave flagged Ashton Jeanty's stalled per-carry efficiency (unchanged yards-before-contact from last year, 3.3 yards per carry) as more concerning long-term than Chris Godwin's quarterback change. Heath called Kyle Pitts essentially unusable, citing his near-total erasure from the Falcons' passing game.
Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley carry rising, legitimate worry. Worry scores averaged 26 on Hurts and Barkley alike. Heath's case on Hurts: three straight weeks of declining fantasy production, carries nearly halved from career norms (5.3 per game), the NFL's lowest play-action rate, and a bottom-five three-and-out rate — against a soft early schedule, no less. On Barkley, the concern is route participation collapsing to 27% and 45% in his two full games versus 61% last year, with Dallas Goedert's eventual return threatening to squeeze him further.
Ladd McConkey's dip is offense-driven, not talent-driven. The group's 41 average worry score centered on the Chargers' offensive line problems forcing McConkey's average target depth deeper than his skill set suits. Jamie still wouldn't bench him given strong yards-per-route-run marks, and the panel wouldn't trade Chuba Hubbard for him straight up.
What it means for your roster
- FAAB tonight: expect Ollie Gordon bids in the 25-40% range and wide variance on Jaylen Wright and Kalif Raymond (5-35%); don't overbid just because one league reported a high number.
- Trade for: Chase Brown (pay close to second-round value if available), DJ Moore (buy now post-injury discount), and cheap committee pieces (RJ Harvey, Woody Marks, Keaton Mitchell) if you whiffed on Dolphins backs.
- Trade away: Davante Adams (even straight-up for Barkley per Jamie), Bucky Irving (before the Packers/Cowboys stretch), and Harold Fannin (his two touchdowns were fluky, not role-driven).
- Start: Jalen Warren over Barkley this week regardless of Rico Dowdle's questionable tag; DK Metcalf only as a flex given shadow-coverage risk from Denzel Ward.
- Bench/avoid stashing: Kyle Pitts and Colston Loveland no longer merit roster spots if you're pinched at the position.
- Monitor, don't panic-drop: Hurts and Barkley remain startable given lack of better streaming options, but their worry scores are trending up — have contingency plans ready if the three-and-out/route-participation trends continue.
“I just look at it and feel sad.” — Heath
Players in this episode
→ Buy-low target due to depressed fantasy output, but hosts are worried about minimal passing-game role and low route participation compared to his draft capital.
↓ Bust concern due to declining yards per carry, same yards-before-contact as last year, and coaching comments favoring Mike Washington.
↓ Cited as a bust due to Chargers' offensive line collapse, with only two targets through three games.
↑ Best true buy-low RB available, though costly in trade; still worth paying up for given the running back market.
↓ Worry-o-meter subject; fantasy points declining three straight weeks, rushing attempts way down, offense struggling with three-and-outs despite an easy early schedule.
↓ Sell-high candidate; Jalen Daniels at QB likely reduces RB passing work, and tough upcoming schedule (Packers, Cowboys) could limit volume.
→ Worry-o-meter concern due to Chargers' struggling offensive line and unusually deep average target depth; still viewed as a solid WR2.
↓ Named a bust so far due to QB injury and emergence of Kalief Raymond stealing target share; not worth rostering in shallow leagues.
↑ High-end flex play this week with 17+ touches and a favorable matchup against Pittsburgh's run defense.
↓ Sell-high target since his huge usage is unsustainable once Puka Nacua returns to full health and target share.
↑ Named a buy-low target coming off a shoulder injury; still getting heavy targets (8 and 10) in his two healthy games despite tough upcoming matchups.
↑ Top start recommendation for Thursday night vs. Cleveland given strong per-carry efficiency and a favorable Browns run-defense matchup.
→ Cheap buy-low handcuff who gets targets and has a favorable rest-of-season schedule even without being the lead back.
↓ Sell-high candidate after two fluky touchdowns where he wasn't the primary read; inconsistent before that game.
↑ Steal of the draft, currently a top-4 target-share WR with top-12 upside if Jordan Love keeps throwing heavily.
↑ Late-round steal who became the clear lead back after Jonathan Brooks' injury, now viewed as a rest-of-season RB1.
↓ Called the biggest bust of the year, completely uninvolved despite a big contract; unrostered in some leagues.
↓ Listed among bust candidates, partly tied to the QB change to Jalen Daniels.
→ Another cheap buy-low option posting modest weekly point totals and flashing goal-line usage.
↑ Steal-of-the-draft candidate, outproducing Tetairoa McMillan before his injury and performing like a top-20 WR.
↑ Explosive backup who could carve into Omarian Hampton-type roles; compared to Devon Achane's role under Mike McDaniel.
→ Bids varied wildly (5-35% of FAAB) for the complementary Dolphins back.
→ Went for roughly 20-40% of FAAB across leagues on waivers, with one extreme $75 bid reported.
↑ Undrafted but now a top-20 PPR receiver with 7 targets/game and 91% catch rate; seen as steal of the waiver wire and a threat to Bears teammates' roles.