RB position preview: Who to target, monitor and avoid at ADP

This episode is Yahoo Fantasy Forecast's running back position preview, with Matt Harmon and Justin Boone walking through where the position's cliffs sit, which top-12 backs they disagree on, and a full slate of green light, yellow light, red light, and sleeper calls. The central argument: running back depth collapses hard after the fifth round this year, so managers should be doubling up on the position early (two backs in the first four to five rounds) while trusting that receiver, tight end, and quarterback depth allows for flexibility elsewhere.

The arguments

Grab two running backs in your first four to five rounds because the position's depth vanishes after that. Boone wants two RBs in the first five rounds and is open to a robust-RB build taking three in the first four; Harmon pushes it further, preferring two in the first four rounds specifically because he loves the wide receivers available in rounds four and five. Both agree the board splinters into two real cliffs: one around the two-three turn, and a harder one at rounds five-six, after which starting-caliber RB2 production becomes a coin flip.

Christian McCaffrey's 450-touch workload (including playoffs) makes him a bigger risk than his ADP suggests, and Boone prefers Jonathan Taylor instead. Boone points out no back has handled that kind of workload past age 30 with a strong follow-up season, and questions whether Daniel Jones returns to early-season form; Harmon counters that he still ranks CMC in his top five because the receiving-work upside offsets some risk, calling it a personal risk-reward disagreement rather than a real analytical gap.

Saquon Barkley and Kenneth Walker are being underrated relative to Ashton Jeanty in the industry, according to Boone, though he stresses this whole RB2 range (Chase Brown, Jeanty, Amariyon Hampton, Devon Achane, Barkley, Walker) is packed with players he likes. Boone says he's actually trying to talk himself into ranking Barkley and Walker higher since he ends up rostering them less often, and defends Achane's touch-volume ceiling despite Miami's shaky offensive outlook. Harmon notes this range is deep enough that he's now breaking ties toward RBs like Devon Achane and Chase Brown over receivers like Drake London and Nico Collins in the same range.

Kyron Williams remains undervalued every year and should be bought whenever his stock dips on Blake Corum hype, per Boone. Boone notes Williams and Corum are the same age (26) and Williams has finished top-10 at the position three straight years, arguing the Rams' scheme itself produces value regardless of who's back there; Harmon is only marginally lower (RB16 vs. Yahoo's positional ADP) purely for structural roster-construction reasons, not doubts about Williams himself.

Cam Akers/Scattaboo's efficiency last season (RB7 in fantasy points over his final six healthy games, 22 touches per game down the stretch) makes him worth his ADP, but Harmon is much lower, viewing him as partly a meme-driven price. Boone argues the "committee" reports out of the Giants camp are overstated since Tyron Tracy Jr. never got close to an even split last year; Harmon counters he's not confident the Giants offense or Cam Skattebo individually are good enough to support a top-40 overall price, ranking him 16 spots below ADP.

Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs get yellow-light (proceed with caution) treatment for very different reasons — age curve versus statistical decline plus suspension risk. Boone keeps saying father time should catch Henry but concedes his yards after contact actually rose last year, landing him as Boone's RB8; on Jacobs, Harmon argues the underlying metrics (explosive run rate down from 7.6% to 6%, yards after contact down) plus suspension risk make him closer to a true red-light player, while Boone still expects low-end RB1/high-end RB2 value when Jacobs is on the field.

Late-round backfields with real sleeper NANC.O upside include Jonathan Brooks (Carolina), Ja'Coy Kroskey-Merritt (Washington), and Jordan Mason (Minnesota), all going well outside the top 100. Boone reports Carolina's camp buzz has Brooks looking fully recovered and pushing Chuba Hubbard down his board; both hosts agree JCM has been named the lead back over Rashad White in Washington's own camp reports; and Boone notes Mason was RB16 in per-game scoring during a three-to-seven week stretch last year, making his 120 overall ADP look far too cheap if Aaron Jones misses time again.

What it means for your roster

• Build RB-RB or RB-WR-RB-WR through your first four rounds; avoid landing at rounds five and six without two rostered running backs already in your starting lineup.
• Target Jonathan Taylor over McCaffrey if you want the safer of the two elite backs; both hosts still have McCaffrey in their top five, so it's not a bench-him call, just a slight preference shift.
• Buy Kyron Williams at his current price and don't be scared off by Blake Corum reports; both hosts see him as a likely top-10-12 back again.
• Treat David Montgomery and Basial Tootin as solid RB2 targets in rounds four-five given underrated offensive environments in Houston and Jacksonville.
• Be cautious drafting Cam Skattebo above pick 41 and Josh Jacobs above the fourth round; both carry real downside (unproven Giants offense, suspension risk) that the market may not be fully pricing.
• Late-round dart throws worth stashing: Jonathan Brooks, Ja'Coy Kroskey-Merritt, Jordan Mason, and DeMond Claiborne, all outside the top-100 picks with paths to lead-back roles if camp buzz translates to snaps.