NFL Week 3 Preview: Who Needs a Win Most? Predictions, Injuries & Matchups to Watch (Ep. 2219)
The Tailgate crew breaks down chaotic Week 3 news including QB uncertainty in New York, injury-riddled backfields in Denver and Minnesota, and Puka Nacua's setback in LA, before previewing five marquee games (Bengals-Steelers, Patriots-Jaguars, Ravens-Cowboys in Rio, Rams-Broncos, Eagles-Bears). They close with bold predictions—including a huge Mahomes game and a Drake Maye bounce-back—and debate which 0-2 teams can't survive falling to 0-3.
This episode of the Tailgate is built around the chaos of Week 2's injury wave bleeding into Week 3 — the hosts spend most of the show triaging backfields, receiver rooms, and quarterback situations across a half-dozen teams before getting into game-by-game breakdowns and bold predictions. The through-line is that face-value injury news is more trustworthy than in past years, and fantasy managers need to react fast to committee backfields and shifting pecking orders rather than assuming last week's usage holds.
The arguments
The Giants are quietly shopping for a new quarterback even after committing to Jameis Winston. Chris Welsh flagged Schefter's report naming Gardner Minshew, Mac Jones, and Jimmy Garoppolo as trade candidates, and Andrew Erickson called BS on John Harbaugh's suggestion that Jaxson Dart could return for the playoffs, citing Harbaugh's track record of mishandling backup QB situations with Baltimore. Both hosts agreed Minshew (familiar with OC Matt Nagy's system) makes more sense than a long-term play like J.J. McCarthy, who'd only be a stopgap-turned-audition once the season is out of hand.
Denver's backfield is too banged up to trust any single running back. With Jonah Coleman, J.K. Dobbins, and RJ Harvey all on the injury report, Erickson said whichever back is healthy still won't see a workhorse role because Denver keeps mixing in Tyler Badie as a passing-down option, especially in likely trailing scripts against the Rams. Fitzmaurice added this was supposed to be a deep, not dominant, backfield, and the depth is now being tested immediately — he expects a different lead back to finish as the top fantasy option almost every week.
Puka Nakua's absence pushes real receiving volume to Terrence Ferguson, but the matchup is tougher this week. Fitzmaurice noted McVay's downbeat update should be taken at face value, and the Rams' heavy 12/13-personnel usage (highest rate in the league last year) means Ferguson — who ran more than twice as many routes as any other Rams tight end last week — stays the pass-catching beneficiary. He cautioned Denver's secondary is far better than the Giants' unit Ferguson feasted on in Week 2.
Aaron Jones's knee injury opens real touches for Devin Neal-type explosiveness in Demond Claiborne, not just DJ Dallas. Fitzmaurice said he'd cut Claiborne in a league right before the injury news broke, then reversed. Erickson pointed out Claiborne already out-targeted Jones last week on a single route, arguing Kevin O'Connell may lean into the passing game with Kyler Murray back rather than force touches into a suddenly thin backfield, with Dallas mainly cast as a pass-blocking role player.
Cincinnati's defensive turnaround (led by Dexter Lawrence) makes them a live favorite on the road against a Steelers offense both hosts called nearly unwatchable. Erickson cited Lawrence drawing double teams on 53% of his pass rushes and Cincinnati's pressure rate jumping from 35% to 45% with him on the field, plus run defense collapsing from 5.6 to 2.9 yards per carry allowed with him active. Both hosts piled on Aaron Rodgers's press-conference comments as a red flag for a Rodgers-McCarthy relationship already fraying, and neither gave Pittsburgh's offense a chance to keep pace.
The Bears' passing pieces (Bird, Odunze, Loveland) stay dormant, but the run game could still carve up Philadelphia. Fitzmaurice and Erickson agreed Case Keenum won't unlock the receiving corps, but pointed to Philadelphia's run defense allowing the ninth-most rushing yards and facing the fifth-highest run rate over two weeks, plus last year's Black Friday game where Swift and Kmet Monangai both topped 100 yards on the ground. Erickson added Chicago's superior home-field ATS record under Ben Johnson as reason to expect a competitive, run-heavy script even without a real passing threat at quarterback.
What it means for your roster
- Sit/monitor Jameis Winston as a boom-bust streamer only — his career 27% ATS mark as a favorite and volatile track record mean treat him as a high-ceiling, high-bust QB2 stream, not a locked-in weekly start.
- Avoid overcommitting to any single Denver back this week — Coleman, Dobbins, and Harvey are all banged up, and Badie will siphon passing-down work; don't pay up in trade or waiver priority for whichever name is "trending healthy."
- Prioritize Terrence Ferguson on the wire if Puka Nakua sits again, but tamp down expectations against Denver's better secondary compared to the Giants.
- Speculatively add Demond Claiborne over DJ Dallas if Aaron Jones is out — hosts view Claiborne as the explosive-play threat, Dallas as pass-blocking depth only.
- Fade Pittsburgh's passing-game pieces (DK Metcalf, etc.) this week — both hosts see Rodgers checking down or throwing away rather than pushing the ball downfield against Cincinnati's improved pass rush.
- Consider Bears backfield rushers (Swift, Kyle Monangai) as sneaky flex plays against a Philadelphia run defense that's underperformed its reputation two weeks running, even with Case Keenum at QB.
“Mark Hammer is a phenomenal, phenomenal name... It's a TV judge name, for sure.” — Chris Welsh
Players in this episode
↓ Sean McVay said he is 'not making great progress'; expected to miss another game, pushing more usage to Terrance Ferguson and the run game.
↑ Struggling through two tough matchups, but hosts predict a get-right game against a Jaguars defense ranked poorly in WR/TE coverage, projecting ~250 yards, multiple TDs, and rushing production.
↑ Expected to have a big role and produce touchdowns against a Broncos run defense that has struggled, especially with Puka out.
↑ Hosts like Cincinnati to control the Steelers matchup thanks to Dexter Lawrence's defensive impact possibly allowing Burrow to throw fewer, more efficient passes.
↓ A judge denied the victim's request to seal video evidence in his domestic violence case, raising the odds of release and a potential lengthy or career-ending suspension; he remains on the exempt list.
↓ Out with concussion; Case Keenum starting, with hosts skeptical the Bears passing weapons (Rome Odunze, Colston Loveland, Luther Burden) can produce, though the run game led by Ben Johnson could still work.
↓ Averaging just 3 yards per carry through two games against poor defenses, seen as part of a one-dimensional Cowboys offense.
↑ Bold prediction of 400+ passing yards against a Dolphins secondary called one of the worst in a decade.
↓ Worked out on his own but was not seen in media-open practice; expected to miss the Rio game, which concerns hosts given Rashod Bateman isn't at the same level.
↓ Confirmed to be having season-ending knee surgery, with a hopeful (but doubted) return for playoffs; Giants reportedly scouting QB trade candidates like Gardner Minshew, Mac Jones, and Jimmy Garoppolo as a result.
↑ Predicted to top 100 rushing yards and score two touchdowns against Carolina's poor run defense.
→ Also banged up in Denver's crowded, injury-hit backfield; hosts expect a committee with no consistent weekly lead back.
→ Trending in a better direction health-wise among Denver's injured backs, but no back expected to see a workhorse role.
↑ Second in target share among all WRs behind JSN and Amon-Ra St. Brown; expected to be featured against Christian Gonzalez, with hosts calling him a stud who needs to get paid.
↓ Suffered a knee injury after heavy usage and may not play, opening the door for Devin Neal (Damon Claiborne) and DJ Dallas to see work.
→ Returning from injury; hosts question if he'll be tentative after getting hit, but expect Cardinals to lean pass-heavy against a struggling Tampa Bay defense, favoring Kyler-to-Justin Jefferson-type connections (analogy used).
↓ Re-injured after returning from ankle surgery, adding to concerns about a mismanaged Colts offense that lacks a deep-threat element.
↓ Was a standout pass-catcher last week but did not practice Wednesday; expectations tempered given crowded, banged-up backfield.
↑ Ran more than twice as many routes as any other Rams TE in Puka's absence and is expected to be a bigger part of the passing game, though this week's Denver matchup is tougher than last week's Giants.
↓ Offense described as dysfunctional, with Rodgers throwing the ball away rather than attacking downfield, and his post-loss comments seen as a jab at coaching; hosts are down on the Steelers offense vs. Cincinnati.
→ Struggled badly in Week 2 relief duty, is a historically poor market favorite (27% ATS as favorite), but hosts expect a chaotic, high-variance start (300+ yards, multiple TDs and INTs) this week.