Which NFL QBs Are Actually Safe? | Dynasty Fantasy Football Podcast Ep. 909
The hosts run a 'Jekyll and Hyde' segment comparing players' wildly different Week 1 vs Week 2 performances (Montgomery, DeVonta Smith, Javonte Williams, Mike Evans, Rashad White) to figure out which version is more sustainable, then spend the back half of the show building a tier list ranking every NFL team's long-term quarterback security for dynasty purposes. The central argument is that early-season sample sizes are noisy and injury-driven, so dynasty managers should use the chaos to buy low/sell high while treating the QB security tiers as a guide to which rookies could realistically land starting jobs down the road.
This episode splits into two halves: a rundown of Week 2's brutal injury wave and its ripple effects across dynasty rosters, followed by a full team-by-team tier exercise ranking how "safe" each NFL team's current quarterback is to remain the starter three years out. The hosts' core argument is that the league is shedding depth fast, making this an ideal window to buy discounted assets, while long-term dynasty value should be built around quarterback rooms that are genuinely locked in versus ones that only look stable on paper.
The arguments
The Week 2 injury bloodbath makes this the best trading window in dynasty right now. Rich, Matt, and Garrett agreed the volume of injuries (Caleb Williams, Jaxson Dart, Puka Nacua, Jayden Daniels, Alec Pierce, Jonathan Brooks) has already pushed a third of their rosters into rebuild mode, but they framed this as opportunity rather than disaster — draft picks acquired weeks ago can spike in value if the team that traded them collapses, and managers should be actively working the trade market rather than sitting still.
David Montgomery's role is trending the wrong direction and may be a sell. After a three-touchdown Week 1, Montgomery managed just 4.4 points and 1.7 yards per carry in Week 2 while Woody Marks out-touched him in carries, targets, and red-zone opportunities. The hosts leaned toward viewing him as touchdown-dependent going forward, projecting a floor closer to 12 points than the 28-point ceiling he flashed in the opener.
Cam Skattebo and Quinshawn Junkins joined Montgomery on the "concerned enough to sell" list. Rich flagged Skattebo's usage under John Harbaugh (bench in favor of a fresh Najee Harris, thin red-zone work) as a red flag, especially with Jaxson Dart now out. On Junkins, the hosts disagreed on urgency — Garrett wants to see Week 3 against Carolina's run defense before judging, since Junkins' only real path to standalone value is more passing-game work, which hasn't materialized yet.
Devonta Smith is positioned to be the clear alpha in Philadelphia with Dallas Goedert out. His Week 2 explosion (27.7 points) came with Goedert sidelined and Saquon Barkley missing time, prompting the majority take that Smith becomes the primary beneficiary of the Eagles' need to throw more. Garrett was more skeptical, noting the outburst came against Tennessee and wants more proof before fully buying the "true number one" framing.
Rashad White, not Jacory Croskey-Merritt, is the actual fantasy asset in Washington's backfield. White ran 93% of third-down snaps in Week 2, out-snapped Croskey-Merritt overall, and caught all six of his targets, while Croskey-Merritt remains a between-the-tackles, non-passing-down option. All three hosts agreed White is the back to roster in that offense.
Quarterback safety hinges on organizational stability, not just talent. In the tier exercise, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, and (via Matthew Stafford's guaranteed money bridging to Ty Simpson) the Rams all landed in the top tiers, while Kyler Murray/Minnesota, Justin Fields/Jets, Cleveland's entire QB room, and Malik Willis/Miami were graded as F or near-F because of roster instability and looming premium draft capital at quarterback.
Age and injury history are dragging down otherwise talented young or established passers. Jaden Daniels' recurring elbow issue (now a second dislocation) pulled Washington down to a "solid B" despite obvious talent, and Justin Herbert was debated down from an automatic A given the Chargers' brutal remaining schedule. Bryce Young, by contrast, was moved up in Garrett's rankings after continuity in the same system started showing results.
What it means for your roster
- Consider shopping David Montgomery, Cam Skattebo, and Quinshawn Junkins now while name value is still elevated; usage trends in all three cases concerned the hosts.
- Devonta Smith is a hold/buy as the presumptive Eagles WR1 for the next several weeks with Goedert out.
- Prioritize Rashad White over Jacory Croskey-Merritt in Washington leagues for PPR value; Croskey-Merritt is TD-dependent only.
- Alec Pierce should be dropped or stashed deep — the hosts expect him to miss extended time and possibly need further surgery.
- Treat Trevor Lawrence, Josh Allen, Mahomes, Burrow, and Lamar Jackson as untouchable long-term dynasty QB assets regardless of short-term price dips.
- Avoid investing draft capital in Vikings, Jets, Browns, or Dolphins quarterback situations for future value — all graded near the bottom of the safety tiers.
- Watch for a buy-low window on Jaden Daniels if the injury tanks his price; the hosts still view the talent as top-tier despite durability concerns.
“It's a war of nutrition, and no one's eating bananas.” — Garrett Price
Players in this episode
→ Snap share dipped to 52-55% in back-to-back weeks, raising mild concern the 49ers are managing his workload for the long season even though he's still producing.
↓ Suffered a recurring elbow dislocation on a freak play; hosts debated whether he needs surgery this time to prevent future recurrence, but still expect him to get a fifth-year option.
→ Scored only 8 points in a game the Cowboys leaned heavily on CeeDee Lamb through the air; hosts said this was purely game-script driven and not a real concern.
↑ Bounced back from a quiet Week 1 to a 27.7-point outing highlighted by sideline catches, benefiting from Dallas Goedert's injury; hosts think he becomes a high-end WR2 while Goedert is out.
↓ Hosts flagged concerning usage with John Harbaugh seemingly favoring Najee Harris in the red zone, especially with Jaxson Dart now out, raising doubts about Skattebo's role.
↓ Went from a three-touchdown, 28.9-point Week 1 to just 4.4 points in Week 2, losing snaps, targets and red-zone work to Woody Marks; hosts leaned toward him settling in as a touchdown-dependent, low-double-digit scorer.
↑ Despite a mediocre Week 2, hosts gave him an 'A' security grade, citing the strong coaching staff and supporting cast as reasons he's very likely still the starter in three years.
→ Got a season-high five targets/receptions with Dylan Sampson injured, but hosts want to see more passing-game involvement; called Week 3 vs. Carolina's weak run defense a pivotal test for his outlook.
↑ Praised for stepping up with a near-200-yard game after Puka Nacua's injury, showing he's still an elite separator despite his age.
↑ Hosts gave him an elite security grade and teased that he's had one of the biggest jumps in their personal rankings, promising a deeper dive next episode.
→ Dropped from 16.9 to 8.4 points while dealing with a hip injury; hosts said his output will hinge on Tampa's game plan but expect him to stay a reliable weekly threat.
↓ Hosts expressed serious concern about his effort and route-running on tape, questioning his motivation and suggesting the team may need to trade him to find a spark.
↓ Suffered a significant injury shortly after signing a big contract extension; hosts called the deal a poor front-office decision and expect him to be out for many weeks, possibly needing surgery.
↓ Expected to miss roughly one to three weeks, opening up more volume for DeVonta Smith and possibly Eli Stowers/Jahan Dotson-type players.
↓ Called a non-viable passing-game option with minimal targets, ceding third-down work to Rashad White.
↑ Out-touched Montgomery in Week 2, getting 57% of carries, most targets and 75% of red-zone touches, positioning him as the more valuable back in higher-tempo game scripts.
↓ Graded low on the security tier list; hosts expect Miami to be bad enough to draft a rookie quarterback from a strong 2026-2028 class, making Willis unlikely to be the long-term starter.
↑ Jumped from 4.3 to 14.8 points, playing 93% of passing-down snaps and out-snapping Jacory Croskey-Merritt; hosts view him as the preferred fantasy asset in Washington's backfield going forward.
↑ Hosts noted they've been high on him for two years and feel validated as he's pushed the ball downfield well and thrown three touchdowns; one host has him ranked ahead of Baker Mayfield.
↑ Named 'ugly player of the week' after catching two of Bryce Young's three touchdown passes while more talented receivers Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker were shut out.