The Show: Dalton Kincaid's Hot Start, Injury News, and More
JJ and Kitchen break down the Bills' explosive week one and dig into Dalton Kincaid's role-driven breakout, then run through a wave of injury news (Nico Collins, Zay Flowers, DJ Moore, Ladd McConkie, Michael Pittman) and how it reshapes week two starts. They close with data on rising heavy-personnel usage, look-ahead waiver targets, and several bold predictions including Rasheed Rice cratering and Baker Mayfield outscoring Joe Burrow.
This episode of the Late-Round Fantasy Football Show is a Week 2 injury-and-reaction roundup built around one marquee thesis: Dalton Kincaid's route-share surge makes him a legitimate top-five rest-of-season tight end, not a one-week fluke. Around that anchor, the hosts work through a wave of Week 1 injury fallout (DJ Moore, Nico Collins, Ladd McConkie, Michael Pittman, Travion Henderson) and use a personnel-usage data trend to flag which offenses are shifting toward tight end-heavy sets.
The arguments
Dalton Kincaid's target share spike is math, not variance, and makes him a top-five rest-of-season tight end. JJ noted Kincaid's slot alignment and wide share are nearly identical to last year, but his route share has jumped from roughly 50% to 69%, and his target share has climbed to 25% (targets per route run up from 24% to 29%). Since his per-route efficiency (0.84 fantasy points per route run) will likely regress from its current level, JJ's case rests entirely on volume: more routes at a stable efficiency profile still produces a top-tier tight end, and he's already starting Kincaid over Harold Fannin this week.
The NFL's shift toward heavier personnel (fewer than three receivers on the field) is reshaping which pass-catchers to trust. JJ's data segment showed Las Vegas jumped from 43% to 70% heavy-personnel usage from 2025 to Week 1, with Minnesota, the Jets, Chargers and Giants also trending up — good news for tight ends like Brock Bowers and slot/big-slot receivers like Parker Washington who face tight ends in coverage rather than other receivers. Conversely, Pittsburgh, Miami, Cleveland, Arizona, Tennessee and Washington trended toward more spread 11-personnel looks, largely tied to coaching changes (Mike McCarthy replacing Arthur Smith in Pittsburgh was cited specifically).
With Nico Collins out, Jalen Noll is the higher-upside speculative add over Keyshawn Booty despite Booty's better median projection. JJ argued Booty will likely play more snaps and run more routes, giving him the safer floor, but Noll's college role (comped to Randall Cobb, capable of playing more vertically outside the slot as he did at Iowa State) gives him true weekly-winner upside if Houston deploys him like Jacksonville uses Parker Washington. Dalton Schultz was also flagged as a solid streaming tight end given Cincinnati's matchup history against the position.
Kenyon Sadiq is a near-free stash that the fantasy community is sleeping on. JJ delivered an extended, self-described "passion-fueled rant" arguing Sadiq is a first-round pick, age-21 prospect with an above-average college production profile in a tight-end-friendly offense that lacks a clear number-two receiver — exactly the profile fantasy managers usually chase in younger players. He acknowledged the play fails 75-80% of the time but argued the acquisition cost (available on waivers, going in round 18-19 of best ball drafts) makes the swing worth it; he wants to see his 47% route share climb into the 60-70% range before trusting him as a weekly start.
Rasheed Rice is a bold fade this week because of a specific man-coverage weakness. JJ's bold prediction has Rice finishing outside the top 30 receivers against a Colts defense that ran man coverage at a league-high 58% rate last week and ranked top-10 in man rate last season. He cited a roughly two-yards-per-route-run gap in Rice's production against man versus zone coverage since Xavier Worthy's arrival, arguing Rice's after-catch-driven slot game doesn't translate against tighter man coverage, even though he's ranked WR15 in consensus.
Multiple Week 1 injuries create bench-and-buy decisions: Travion Henderson, Michael Pittman, and Ladd McConkie. JJ said he'd have a hard time confidently starting Henderson one week off injury despite his strong Week 1 usage, bumping Rhamondre back up to low-end RB2/high-end RB3 territory. On Pittman, both hosts flagged that DK Metcalf likely draws Christian Gonzalez coverage this week, making Pittman more important as an underneath option if he's healthy enough to play. On McConkie, the Chargers offense looked "night and day" worse without him in Week 1, making Trey Harris a must-speculate add and Justin Herbert's floor genuinely shaky if McConkie's rib injury keeps him out.
What it means for your roster
- Start Dalton Kincaid over Harold Fannin and other mid-tier tight ends this week and going forward — the route-share trend is durable, not a one-game blip, per JJ's process.
- Add Jalen Noll off waivers as a speculative upside stash while Nico Collins is out, but don't cut bait on Keyshawn Booty, who still projects for more volume this week.
- Grab Kenyon Sadiq now if he's still available — treat him as a stash for a low-ceiling TE1 slot, but don't expect weekly startability until his route share climbs past 60%.
- Sit or downgrade Rasheed Rice this week given the Colts' league-high man-coverage rate and his documented man-vs-zone efficiency gap; he's rankable outside the market's WR15 consensus.
- Bench Travion Henderson and bump Rhamondre back up to low RB2/high RB3 territory until Henderson proves out post-injury.
- Watch Brock Bowers-caliber tight ends and slot/big-slot receivers in Las Vegas, Minnesota, the Jets, Chargers, and Giants for efficiency bumps tied to the heavy-personnel trend; be more cautious with Pittsburgh, Miami, Cleveland, Arizona, Tennessee, and Washington pass-catchers given their shift toward spread sets.
“What if Brian Dable is actually egregiously bad.” — JJ
Players in this episode
↑ Posted an extremely high target share (57%) last week and is viewed as a smash spot against a Panthers defense that got run over by Chicago.
→ His fantasy-points-per-dropback rate of 1.09 is way above his previous career-best (0.7), so hosts expect regression even while praising his elite floor this season.
→ Ranked as a high-end WR3 this week with Cooper Rush at QB; hosts understand why some are considering sitting him but lean toward starting.
→ Was seen practicing this week but hosts aren't optimistic he plays in week two, viewing it more as a positive sign for future weeks.
↓ Diagnosed with a grade one hamstring strain and expected to miss week two, opening up target competition in Houston's receiver room.
↓ Bold prediction that he finishes outside the top 30 WRs this week due to a significant man-coverage weakness against a Colts defense that plays heavy man.
↓ Dealing with a rib injury tied to contact tolerance; the Chargers offense looked drastically worse without him on the field last week, making his status pivotal for the whole passing attack.
→ Posted elite expected-points usage before his injury, but hosts say it's hard to trust him fully in his return week off an injury and a tough matchup.
↓ Returned to limited practice but reports suggest he may need another week before playing, making him likely out for week two.
→ Left last week's game hurt but is considered day-to-day and likely to play in week two after extra rest.
→ Had a poor week one after being a preseason buy candidate; hosts still expect better production going forward despite his inherent roller-coaster usage.
↑ Hosts view this as a good bounce-back matchup against a Cowboys defense that struggled against perimeter receivers last year and in week one.
↓ Considered essentially a streaming-caliber tight end this week given the Cooper Rush downgrade at quarterback.
→ Underperformed his expected points in week one despite strong air yards and target depth; facing Christian Gonzalez this week is viewed as a tough shadow-coverage matchup.
↑ Bold prediction that he outscores Joe Burrow this week, citing a favorable Browns pass-defense matchup and Tampa Bay's stronger underlying (turnover-adjusted) offensive efficiency.
↑ His route share jumped to 69% (from ~50% last year) with a 25% target share, and hosts now view him as a top-five rest-of-season tight end even as they expect his per-route efficiency to normalize.
↑ Steps into a bigger role with Jordan Mason out and faces a beatable Bears run defense, making him a strong single-week play.
↑ A first-round rookie tight end in a tight-end-friendly offense without a clear WR2; hosts are heavily invested in him as a cheap stash despite acknowledging most such bets fail.
↑ Drew a Ladd McConkie-style prospect comp; hosts are intrigued by a potential increased slot role with Chigoziem Okonkwo out, but caution it may be more of a second-half-of-season stash than an immediate producer.
↑ Posted strong underlying metrics last week (24% target share, top-10 fantasy points per route run) and is viewed as a solid streaming option again this week.