The 8 Biggest ADP Values with JJ Zachariason

This episode pairs Matthew Berry with Late Round QB's JJ Zachariason to run through ADP values both analysts independently identified across the industry-consensus ADP tool on FantasyLife.com. The core argument is that draft capital markets are mispricing a specific cluster of players — mostly bigger, contested-target wideouts and role-clarity running backs — and that both hosts landed on nearly identical names and rankings independently, which they treat as validation.

The arguments

Luther Burden's hamstring injury shouldn't scare managers off, and the market will likely overcorrect. Berry and Zachariason agree the injury is a tiebreaker against similar-tier players (McConkie, Ibuka) rather than a reason to drop him a full tier, since the injury timeline suggests lower re-injury risk than a midseason strain and DJ Moore's departure still hands him a clear opportunity. Berry frames a round-plus ADP drop as a gift, not a red flag, and Zachariason notes his ZAP prospect model loved Burden pre-draft.

Kenneth Walker is a strong value at running back nine/eleven because of fit, not just talent. Zachariason built the case on explosive-play and success-rate splits (Chiefs backs had a 6-8% rate of 10+ yard runs last year versus Walker's 15%), tying it to Kansas City facing heavy light boxes that should open up cutback lanes. Berry added corroborating reporting from Dan Graziano that the Chiefs specifically intend to use Walker in the passing game, addressing the one real question mark in Zachariason's profile.

Christian Watson and Mike Evans are both being priced for downside, not the upside case at cost. Both hosts like Watson (WR26/29 range) given his per-target efficiency and the departures of Wicks and Dobbs opening route share, with Zachariason projecting him into the valuable "Z" role. On Evans, both flagged the pick as volatile — Zachariason's market score model even comps him to Allen Robinson's decline-phase Rams year — but both still rank him a round-plus above ADP because of Purdy's league-leading deep-ball accuracy and Evans's red-zone target share, calling him this year's Devonta Adams.

Parker Washington is being drastically underranked relative to his role in the Jaguars offense. Berry has him at WR64 overall against an ADP of 80, and both hosts rank him above Jacoby Meyers and even above Brian Thomas Jr. in Zachariason's case, pointing to his 79% route share and per-route efficiency advantage over Thomas and Meyers once Travis Hunter was injured last year. They disagree slightly on how much Travis Hunter's usage threatens this, but Zachariason argues Jacksonville has no incentive to abandon what worked.

Jordan Tyson is a two-round market value built on model conviction and situational fit. Zachariason's ZAP model scored Tyson above 90 (an "elite asset" threshold), and both hosts cite Kellen Moore's high pace-of-play history and Chris Olave's complementary downfield skill set as reasons the target tree stays workable. They're aligned almost exactly in ranking (WR31, low-60s overall) versus an ADP outside the top 81.

Ramondre Stevenson is a better value than the more explosive Treylon Henderson given role security. Berry argues McDaniels has historically used multiple backs and that Stevenson's passing-down and pass-pro ability makes him the safer bet for touches if either back gets hurt; Zachariason agrees and adds that New England's tougher 2026 schedule (versus last year's easy, lead-heavy slate) could mean more Stevenson snaps in obvious passing/protection situations.

Malik Willis and Chris Godwin are cost-driven, not talent-driven, plays. On Willis, both hosts lean entirely on rushing floor — historical comps show quarterbacks with 7+ rushing points per game rarely finish outside the top 20 — while acknowledging the Miami receiving corps is thin and passing ability is unproven. On Godwin, both push back on his outside-top-100 ADP, citing his 23% target share in the slot over the past two seasons and Tampa Bay's consistent slot-target volume, while stopping short of calling him the offense's top fantasy receiver over Emeka Egbuka.

What it means for your roster

• Draft Kenneth Walker as a true RB7-9, not the RB11 consensus slot — both hosts have him going off the board a half-round to full round early relative to typical ADP.
• Target Christian Watson in round 5-6 and Mike Evans in early round 6 — both hosts have them a round or more above market ADP and see WR1/2 upside at that discounted cost.
• Prioritize Parker Washington over Jacoby Meyers and consider him over Brian Thomas Jr. in Jacksonville — he's going in round 9-10 but both hosts rank him top-30 overall at the position.
• Draft or trade for Jordan Tyson two rounds above his current ADP (outside top 81) — both hosts have him around picks 62-65 overall based on model scores and Kellen Moore's offense.
• Fade Treylon Henderson relative to Ramondre Stevenson in New England best-ball and season-long formats — Stevenson is the value given the tougher 2026 schedule and multi-back history under McDaniels.
• Use Malik Willis as a QB2/streaming pair with a safer starter (e.g., Bo Nix) rather than a QB1 — both hosts have him at pick 119-122 overall against an ADP near 143, banking on rushing floor alone.
• Stream or late-round Chris Godwin as a WR3/flex bet in Tampa at his WR41/pick-98 price, not expecting a return to elite production but betting on slot volume with Baker Mayfield in a contract year.