The Primer: Week 5 Fantasy Football Lineup Advice (Ep. 2250)
Seth Woolcock and Derek Brown break down Week 5 must-start and deep-league plays across QB, WR and TE, leaning heavily on matchup and efficiency data rather than name value. They flag a run of injuries (Michael Pittman Jr., Tank Dell, Vikings/Commanders pass-catchers) that pushes streamers and waiver pickups like Roman Wilson and Jaylin Noel into must-add territory, while also pounding the table for C.J. Stroud, Denzel Boston, Dontayvion Wicks and Mark Andrews as bounce-back or breakout plays.
This Week 5 edition of The Primer skips running backs entirely — hosts Seth Wilcock and Derek Brown argue the position is too thin and chalk-heavy to be useful this week — and instead goes deep on quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends who can fill WR2/WR3/flex holes created by a wave of injuries across the league. The episode's throughline is that market overreaction (to bad defenses, to limited practice designations, to prior down weeks) is creating buyable value at multiple positions.
The arguments
CJ Stroud is set up for a multi-touchdown week against Tennessee. Derek points to Houston's inability to run the ball (David Montgomery getting stuffed at or behind the line over 50% of the time) forcing a pass-heavy approach, Houston's sixth-highest red-zone pass rate, and Tennessee's fifth-lowest pressure rate combined with a leaky secondary. Seth pushes on whether this is scheme or opponent-driven, and Derek credits both Stroud's improved per-dropback play and Houston's fast pace, which limits defensive substitutions and simplifies reads for Stroud.
Denzel Boston is a legitimate WR2, not just a value product of low expectations. Derek cites Boston ranking 20th in fantasy points per game despite an ECR in the low 30s, plus top-20 separation, yards per route run, and route win rate marks among 77 qualifying receivers. Against a Jets defense playing Cover 2 on 62% of snaps, Boston's elite yards per route run versus that shell and top-10 air yard share make him a strong bet for another big week.
Dontayvion Wicks is a bounce-back flex after getting shut down by Trent McDuffie last week. Derek notes Wicks drew McDuffie on 52% of his routes and finished with one target for seven yards, but argues the Jaguars matchup is far more favorable given Jacksonville's heavy Cover 2 usage, which Wicks has thrived against, and their generosity against perimeter receivers. He doesn't guarantee a touchdown but projects a plausible 6-catch, 80-yard day worth around 14 PPR points.
Roman Wilson is a must-add waiver pickup with Michael Pittman Jr. out. Derek details Pittman's injury (non-weight-bearing on a scooter despite an initial "limited" practice listing) and Wilson's last two weeks of 60 and 74 yards with an 18% target share. He adds that Aaron Rodgers has been throwing more aggressively downfield over the last two games, which should amplify Wilson's role against a Colts defense allowing the second-most yards per target to slot receivers.
Jaylen Nloya (Jaylen Knoll, as pronounced) is a volatile but justifiable flex play amid Houston's receiver injuries. Derek flags the risk tied to Nick Caley's rotational tendencies but argues that in any game where Nloya has played above 33% of snaps over the past two seasons, his per-route production has been elite, and this week's Tennessee matchup is third-worst in yards per target to slot receivers. Both hosts agree Tank Dell is not an immediate threat to his snaps even if active.
Mark Andrews remains a confident tight end start despite recent quiet weeks. Derek admits last week's touchdown finally validated the per-route profile (fourth in target share, 12th in yards per route run, fifth in first-read share among tight ends) and expects more positive touchdown regression against a Rams defense that's already given up big games to Pat Freiermuth, Darren Waller, and Juwan Johnson.
What it means for your roster
- Start CJ Stroud with confidence as a QB1 play this week given the matchup and Houston's pass-heavy red-zone tendencies.
- Prioritize Denzel Boston as a WR2 in all formats; his underlying efficiency profile outpaces his current ECR.
- Play Dontayvion Wicks as a flex in London, especially in PPR, banking on yardage even without a touchdown.
- Claim Roman Wilson off waivers immediately — he projects as a top-45 receiver with Pittman out and should be rostered as a WR2/WR3.
- Stream Jaylen Nloya only if your WR corps is already banged up; treat him as a volatile but justifiable flex, not a locked-in start.
- Keep starting Mark Andrews at tight end — touchdown regression is overdue, and the underlying target share/route metrics support another TE1 finish.
“Rome, you down there somewhere? DK, you down there somewhere?” — Derek Brown
Players in this episode
→ Hurts isn't playing great currently, but the matchup this week is better than last week's, giving some optimism for Eagles passing-game players like Wicks.
↓ Montgomery is being stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage on over 50% of runs, among the worst rates in the league, reinforcing Houston's pass-heavy approach.
↑ Despite previously lacking touchdowns, Andrews ranks top-5 in TE target share and first-read share; now has scoring confirmed and faces a Rams-type defense that's given up big games to tight ends, projecting another TE1 week.
↑ Stroud is trending back toward QB1 value thanks to Houston's high red-zone pass rate, inability to run the ball, and a Titans defense that can't pressure or cover well.
↓ Ruled out this week after being seen non-weight-bearing on a scooter, despite initially being listed as a limited practice participant, which the hosts mocked as nonsensical.
↑ Despite being ranked WR30-31 in ECR, Boston ranks top-20 in fantasy points per game and elite in separation, yards per route run, and route win rate; expected to exploit a Jets defense that plays heavy Cover-2.
→ Hosts don't expect Dell to return this week, and even if he does, project only minimal snaps, keeping Jaylin Noel's outlook strong.
↑ Over the last two games Rodgers has shown a much higher ADOT and more aggressive downfield mentality, boosting big-play upside for Pittsburgh's receivers, including Roman Wilson.
↑ A deep waiver-wire option for Texans; historically elite per-route efficiency when he plays 33%+ of snaps, now seeing a season-high snap rate and a favorable matchup against Tennessee's slot coverage.
↑ After a down game shadowed by Trent McDuffie, Wicks gets a much better matchup in London against Jacksonville's zone-heavy, perimeter-vulnerable secondary; projected as a solid flex even without a touchdown.
↑ Wilson has back-to-back strong weeks (60 and 74 yards), is seeing rising target share, and should benefit further from Michael Pittman Jr.'s absence and Aaron Rodgers' more aggressive downfield approach; called a top waiver-wire pickup.
→ Hunter has looked improved at cornerback but is unlikely to shadow Wicks, which helps Wicks' matchup outlook.