Buy Low & Sell High Trade Targets Ahead of Week 5 + Fill in the Bank! (10/07 Fantasy Football Podcast)
The FFT crew dives into trade season, highlighting Lane Johnson's shocking retirement and its ripple effects on the Eagles' offense, then breaks down buy-low targets like George Pickens and Omarion Hampton against sell-high candidates like Aaron Jones, Alvin Kamara and Derrick Henry. They also run through a rapid-fire fill-in-the-blank segment on several players, preview Thursday night's Bucs-Cowboys game, and close with a Fantasy Jeopardy game.
This episode of Fantasy Football Today is built around Week 5 trade strategy heading into bye weeks, with the hosts trading buy-low and sell-high targets, previewing Thursday's Bucs-Cowboys matchup, and working through a long list of listener trade and start/sit questions. The central argument: with several 0-4 and 1-3 teams on bye, this is the ideal moment to buy discounted talent cheap and dump running backs who are statistically outperforming their underlying efficiency.
The arguments
Kenneth Walker's start is historically elite, and that should make him close to untouchable in trades. Heath noted Walker has the most rushing yards through four weeks in at least 16 years, trailing only Arian Foster's 2010 pace, and is on a 2,282-yard full-season pace. The point wasn't really argued against — it was offered as context for why Walker shouldn't be moved even amid Seattle's offensive questions.
Running backs riding injury-driven volume (Aaron Jones, Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, Chuba Hubbard) are the premium sell-high assets of the week. Jamie and Dave agreed Jones should be flipped now given his age and Jordan Mason's eventual return, with Dave specifically proposing Jones plus a piece for George Pickens. On Kamara, Heath pushed back against giving him away, noting seven targets and a Saints offense that throws constantly makes him a legitimate rest-of-season RB2, not just a throwaway. Henry got the most detailed treatment: Dave flagged his yards-before-contact craters to 1.01 (by far a career low with Baltimore) due to Ravens O-line injuries, and proposed packages like Henry for Javonte Williams/Chase Brown plus a starting receiver, while debating whether Hubbard, Judkins, or Jaylen Warren are fair substitutes given each has an uncertain backup timeline.
Omarion Hampton is spiraling and close to a legitimate fantasy bust, but still shouldn't be sold for pennies. Dave and Jamie agreed the Chargers' predictable, interior-heavy scheme under Mike McDaniel is strangling Hampton's value, and Jamie joked the staff needs to be fired or Harbaugh needs to take over play-calling. Still, Dave argued he wouldn't take less than Luther Burden in return — Josh Downs, Stefon Diggs, or Carnell Tate are all too cheap given Hampton's name value and a softer Denver run defense this week.
Ladd McConkie is the buy-low of the week, but the hosts split on how much helmet to put on it. Heath cited elite per-route and per-target efficiency (2.13 YPRR, 10.76 yards per target, both career bests) and argued the Chargers have no other answer at receiver, so McConkie gets peppered with targets whenever healthy. Dave countered with concerns about his route depth creeping up, reduced slot usage, and heavy double coverage behind a shaky offensive line — he's not dismissing the buy but wants it cheap.
Jonathan Taylor-tier backs aren't the only sell-highs; pass-catching role players like Luther Burden and Stefon Diggs carry hidden risk because of low route participation. Dave's research showed nearly every wide receiver who averaged 14+ PPR points last season ran 80%+ of routes when playing — Burden (68-74%) and Diggs are both below that threshold, meaning their weekly ceiling depends heavily on touchdowns rather than sustainable target volume.
Tampa Bay's passing offense is bad enough that only Bucky Irving is a confident Week 5 start, and the hosts are split on whether even he's safe. Heath flagged that Tampa Bay ran its first inside-the-five rush attempt of the season last week and gave the goal-line score to Sean Tucker instead of Irving, a troubling red flag with Baker Mayfield out. Jamie still ranked Irving ahead of Omarion Hampton for the week, but admitted feeling uneasy doing so.
What it means for your roster
- Shop Aaron Jones, Alvin Kamara, and Derrick Henry now while they're riding hot stat lines — target packages that net a quality WR2/3 (Pickens-caliber) or a timeline-safe backup-handcuff RB like Hubbard/Judkins/Warren instead of settling for Henry/Jones straight up.
- Buy Ladd McConkie if his current manager is panicking about missed time — his per-target efficiency supports a bigger role once healthy, but factor in the route-depth and pass-pro concerns before paying a premium.
- Don't give away Omarion Hampton for anything below Luther Burden-level value despite the ugly scheme fit; wait for a coaching change or passing-game usage before fully bailing.
- If you have Luther Burden or Stefon Diggs, monitor route participation rate closely — treat weeks they dip below 70% as red flags rather than one-offs.
- Start Bucky Irving with reservations this week against Dallas, but know the goal-line role has shifted toward Sean Tucker; temper touchdown expectations.
- Flip Carnell Tate for Ollie Gordon if offered (graded A+) — Tate's target share (4th among WRs) makes him a clear building block over a one-week workhorse spike.
“I think Amari and Hampton has the potential to be the biggest bust in fantasy.” — Dave
Players in this episode
↓ Sell-high target due to declining yards before contact (1.01, lowest as a Raven) and crumbling Ravens O-line; hosts project him as roughly RB12 rest of season and suggest trading him for a RB plus a starting WR.
↓ Only has an outside chance to play this week per Ian Rapoport.
↑ Hosts who dropped him regret it; he's trending back up after starting to 'turn the corner' and running more, now viewed as a top-10ish rest-of-season QB.
↓ Most traded player in fantasy; called a potential 'biggest bust' candidate due to predictable, between-the-tackles usage and poor O-line, but hosts wouldn't give him away cheaply and see some positive signs in Week 4.
→ Currently RB10 but production skewed toward receiving with shaky rushing efficiency; floated as a potential sell-high, with hosts projecting him around RB15 rest of season.
↑ Has the most rushing yards through four weeks in 16 years (since Arian Foster in 2010), on pace for 2,282 rushing yards.
→ On track to start this week against the Giants per Mike Garafolo.
↑ Named a top buy-low target; hosts expect positive regression and are comfortable starting him vs. Tampa Bay despite early-season underperformance.
↓ Without Lane Johnson over the last three seasons, Hurts has failed to reach 20 fantasy points in 6 of 10 games; now also missing Landon Dickerson against the Jaguars' top defense, making his outlook ugly this week.
→ Left game late in a blowout; Velus caught a TD with Olave off the field, injury status unclear.
→ Still a must-start despite vanishing targets and Sean Tucker stealing a goal-line score; hosts feel 'gross' starting him given Tampa's offensive struggles without Baker Mayfield.
↓ Named as a Charger who could be dropped given poor offensive line and supporting cast.
↑ Hosts debated him as a buy-low; Heath likes his elite per-route efficiency (2.13 YPRR) when healthy and expects target overload upon return, while others worry about declining slot usage and poor O-line.
↑ Buy-low candidate after a quiet Week 4 (18 routes) due to game script; hosts say make a lowball offer since his value is temporarily discounted.
↑ Ranked top-5 by hosts for the week and considered a safe play against Tampa Bay, though some concern he won't need to throw much if the Cowboys control the game.
→ Hosts are 'lukewarm' on him due to a fumble, Monanga's strong recent play, and a nagging injury that could lead to a more even committee split.
→ Banged up late in Week 4; hosts flagged him as a watch and noted Terrell Jennings/Travion would benefit if he misses time.
→ Elite per-route production (5th in target-per-route rate) but concerning route participation rate below 76%, raising questions about weekly target volume given recurring injuries.
↑ Picked up on waivers by the hosts; ranks 4th in the NFL in team target share with two encouraging recent games, viewed as a strong buy and sell-high trade return (e.g., for Ollie Gordon).
↑ Has sharply increased in value with strong recent weeks (23.7, 14.4, 15, 25.9 PPR points); hosts debate buy vs hold given uncertainty of Jonathan Brooks' eventual return.
→ Projected around WR15 rest of season but concerning given low team pass volume (26 attempts/game) and 5th-highest average route depth among high-target WRs despite being used as a slot receiver.
↓ Prime sell-high given age and expectation Jordan Mason returns soon to cut into his workload (85% rush share, 24% target share since Mason's injury).
↓ Hosts would drop him over backup Trey Harris; not trustworthy even against backup corners.
→ 6th in target-per-route rate but not running enough routes, mirroring last year's profile; production tied closely to QB health.
→ Sell-high candidate after a two-TD game, but hosts caution not to give him away since he could remain a solid PPR option for a few more weeks before Kendre Miller/Tyjae Spears returns.
↓ Missed practice ahead of Thursday's game; hosts suggest finding a replacement kicker.
→ Eagles' star right tackle shockingly retired after missing Week 4 for personal reasons; team was dramatically better with him on the field over his career.
↓ Hosts graded a trade sending Gordon for Carnell Tate as an 'A+' for the Tate side, calling Gordon a clear sell-high after his recent performance.