1st quarter season review: Offenses to BUY and SELL in fantasy rest of season
Matt Harmon and Nate Tice run their quarter-season offensive ecosystem check-in, using efficiency and 'static score' metrics to identify which offenses are trending up (Raiders, Chiefs, Saints, Panthers, Falcons) and which are trending down (Packers, Patriots, Dolphins, Commanders, Colts, Eagles). They then preview Cowboys-Bucs Thursday Night Football before Justin Boone joins for a Week 5 flex-play breakdown across six borderline starters.
This episode is Matt Harmon and Nate Tice's quarter-season offensive ecosystem check-in, using Harmon's blended efficiency metric and a "static score" (under center, play action, heavy personnel, motion) to sort every NFL offense into buy and sell buckets, followed by a Cowboys-Bucs Thursday Night preview and a Justin Boone flex-play segment. The throughline: four weeks is now a big enough sample to trust over preseason assumptions, and several teams have fundamentally changed what they are schematically and personnel-wise.
The arguments
The Raiders' offensive turnaround is real and sustainable. Harmon and Tice point to the Raiders jumping from 32nd to 13th in efficiency, driven by offensive line improvement, heavy-personnel usage (most in the NFL), and Clint Kubiak getting aggressive through Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer. Tice is especially bullish on Kirk Cousins' confidence and willingness to push the ball, noting Cousins is QB9 in fantasy scoring, while both agree Ashton Jeanty's role (71% of backfield work) makes Mike Washington a legitimate handcuff/league-winner candidate if Jeanty gets dinged up.
The Saints and Panthers passing games are legitimate fantasy buys, not just garbage-time mirages. Tice says he's "all in" on Saints pass-catchers because Kellen Moore and Scott Linehan are running a high-volume, shootout-style offense (first in pace score) paired with a shaky defense, making Chris Olave, Juwan Johnson, and Devin Vele all valid plays; Harmon flags Vele's league-leading route total as a potential source of value if Olave misses time. Both agree the Panthers' efficiency climb (ninth overall) validates Tetairoa McMillan, Chuba Hubbard, and Jalen Coker as some of the best fantasy profit picks of the year.
The Broncos and Colts are "tight" offenses limited by their quarterbacks, not scheme. Tice argues Bo Nix isn't pushing the ball downfield (negative average air yards from the pocket in Week 4) and that this is closing throwing windows and suppressing explosive plays league-wide for Denver; he's skeptical anything changes without Nix altering his process. Similarly, both hosts say Daniel Jones can't drive the ball outside — Tice's "limp leg" camp-tape theory — which is throttling Tyler Warren's usage even as Jonathan Taylor and the run game (second in rushing EPA) stay strong; Harmon notes the Colts' 31st-ranked dropback EPA versus 2nd-ranked rushing EPA tells the real story.
The Eagles have become a "zombie team" offensively. Tice cites the Lane Johnson retirement, the Jordan Mailata situation, and overall offensive line collapse as both an on-field and locker-room problem, with the run game inefficient outside of facing Chicago. He's a "hard sell on everything Eagles," including Dontayvion Wicks and even A.J. Brown-adjacent names, given Philadelphia's 31st-ranked efficiency in Week 4 and a brutal matchup with Jacksonville's elite zone defense (Travis Hunter specifically praised).
The Falcons' Penix-era passing game is a legitimate, if narrow, top-tier offense. Tice credits Kevin Stefanski for simplifying the game plan entirely around Bijan Robinson and Drake London, with Penix allowed to air it out to the outside rather than nickel-and-dime; both agree Brian Robinson becomes flex-relevant in good matchups as the new "Tyler Allgeier" role.
Patriots and Vikings are buy-low offenses showing schematic improvement. Tice liked New England's diversified run scheme and AJ Brown's return (Patriots jumped to 8th in static score in Week 4) and suggested buying low on Stevenson or Brown from a struggling fantasy manager; Harmon notes a league-wide trend that non-motion plays now have a higher success rate than motion plays for the first time on record, worth monitoring. For Minnesota, both expect improvement toward a mid-teens/20s offense once Jefferson, Addison, and the shotgun run game gel, calling it boom-bust but defense-backed.
What it means for your roster
- Stash/roster Mike Washington as a legit handcuff behind Ashton Jeanty given his pass-catching role and Jeanty's banged-up history.
- Prioritize Saints and Panthers pass-catchers (Olave, Vele, Juwan Johnson, McMillan, Coker, Hubbard) as buy targets — both hosts see sustained volume, not a one-week blip.
- Sit/bench everything Eagles-adjacent this week, including Dontayvion Wicks (falling outside Boone's top 40 WRs) against Jacksonville's shutdown defense.
- Trade for AJ Brown or Rhamondre Stevenson now while cheap if you're a contender, per Tice's buy-low Patriots thesis.
- Start Josh Downs as a volume-based WR3/flex (Boone has him 24-30) despite the Colts' poor passing efficiency, and consider Mike Gesicki as a top-10 streaming tight end against Miami if Chase/Higgins sit.
- Avoid chasing the Dolphins and Broncos backfields — Boone ranks Ollie Gordon and Tyler Algeier as touchdown-dependent, low-priority flex plays; RJ Harvey is the better of that bunch as a receiving-work flex play.
“Chris Olave's awesome. I even like Bryce Lance, how their usage is.” — Nate Tice
Players in this episode
↑ Central focal point of a surging Falcons run game paired with a legit defense, raising weekly floor significantly.
↑ Still a strong buy given the Colts' efficient run game, even as the passing attack struggles.
↑ Expected back this week after injury; Vikings passing game projected to improve once he and the offense stabilize.
↑ Expected to see more volume once matchups soften; making the most of touches despite a tough Chiefs run defense matchup.
→ Getting heavy volume in an efficient run-first offense, but has an injury history worth monitoring.
↑ His return sparked more varied route concepts and schematic improvement; suggested as a buy-low trade target if his fantasy team is non-contending.
↑ Primary read on nearly every passing concept in the retooled Falcons offense.
↑ Hosts predict he scores his first touchdown of the season against a Bucs secondary missing Winfield and Morrison.
↑ Centerpiece of Raiders' heavy-personnel passing attack, getting designed touches including screens; viewed as the offense's ace.
↑ Leads routes run on a high-volume Saints passing offense; considered a strong buy given Saints' pace and scheme.
↑ Among the league leaders in routes run, benefiting from Panthers' improved, high-paced offense.
→ Still the clear top read in Bucs' passing game but limited by backup QB Jalen Daniels' inability to push the ball downfield.
↓ Extremely check-down heavy (negative average air yards from the pocket last week), limiting the Broncos' passing explosiveness and overall offensive ceiling.
↓ Usage has shifted to more outside/underneath routes instead of his strength (seam/out-breakers), leading to confusing, capped production.
→ Viable flex primarily via receiving work/check-downs even though J.K. Dobbins remains in a timeshare; ranked around RB29.
→ Diversified run scheme beyond heavy duo usage gives him a bit more juice, though he's currently banged up.
↑ Part of the Panthers' efficient, improved offensive ecosystem, posting strong fantasy output.
↑ Expected to keep slinging it due to a broken run game, making Packers pass-catchers (Watson, Golden, Tucker) high-volume 'print' plays.
→ Finally got going with a touchdown last week; hosts floated him as a potential trade/buy-low target given Cardinals' inconsistency.
↑ Emerging as Burrow's top target with Chase/Higgins banged up; ranked WR36 and rising, viable flex play vs. Dolphins.
↑ Compared to a 'new Tyler Allgeier,' could offer standalone flex value against soft run defenses off the Falcons' surging run game.
↓ Boone recommends sitting him due to uncertainty over Jordan Love's ankle limiting overall offensive role/usage.
→ Competent operator of the Saints' fast-paced, high-volume passing scheme; not spectacular but reliable enough to support receivers.
↑ Good chemistry with QB Tyler Shough, part of the Saints' expanding pass-catching corps.
→ Still a viable flex/WR3 despite a down week, expected to see volume again vs. Steelers even if ceiling is capped by Daniel Jones' limitations.
↑ Handpicked by Kubiak for the zone scheme, a good bench stash who produces efficiently even on limited touches.
↓ Benefited heavily from Jefferson's absence with huge target share last week, but hosts expect regression once Jefferson returns.
↓ Struggling to push the ball outside/downfield due to an apparent physical limitation, leading to a nickel-and-dime passing attack that caps receiver upside.
→ Hosts debate his fit as a vertical/slot shot receiver in Kansas City's explosive-play offense; intriguing rental despite inconsistent past usage.
↑ Gets notable slot/blitz-replacement usage, could see a receiving prop over as Cowboys spread targets around.
↓ Falling outside top-40 WR rankings due to Eagles' offensive line collapse and a tough Jaguars (Travis Hunter) matchup; recommended sit.
↑ Leads NFL in routes run, praised for zone-beating skills and big catch radius; would be a 'smash' option if Olave misses time.
↑ Falcons' offense has rocketed to league's most efficient the last two weeks by funneling almost everything through Bijan Robinson and Drake London; scheme suits his deep-ball strength.
↑ Playing confident, aggressive football and pushing the ball downfield in Kubiak's scheme; currently QB9 in fantasy scoring, ahead of several star QBs.
↑ Strong revenge-game streamer option vs. Dolphins' tight-end-weak defense if Chase/Higgins sit; ranked top-10 TE for the week.
↓ Boone recommends sitting him despite a big game last week, citing low snap share, competition from Jaylen Wright, and the Dolphins' low-volume offense.
↑ Explosive deep threat being used in more real/varied ways beyond just vertical shots; hosts are buying his role going forward.
↑ Making the most of his touches in a run-heavy Seahawks offense; worth stashing/trading for if available.
→ Solid as an undrafted backup but lacks downfield arm strength; hosts like him for rushing props/anytime TD in a plus matchup vs. Cowboys.