Play Action
We listen to every fantasy football podcast. You read the takes.
Establish The Run Fantasy Football · Tuesday, October 6

Team-by-Team: Everything To Know Heading Into Week 5 (Episode 1031 with Evan Silva and Adam Levitan)

Listen to the episode ↗

Adam Levitan and Evan Silva go franchise-by-franchise through Week 4, highlighting a league-wide injury epidemic (Eagles, Cardinals, Ravens, Chargers all losing key O-line and skill pieces), backfield shakeups in Philly/Seattle/Denver, and big breakout performances from Michael Penix, Bryce Young, CeeDee Lamb and Puka Nakua. The central thread is that offensive-line attrition and bad defenses around the league are reshaping weekly fantasy roles and creating shootout/ceiling opportunities for skill players on both sides of the ball.

This Establish The Run team-by-team episode runs through all 32 NFL rosters after Week 4, with Evan Silva and Adam Levitan flagging the injuries, usage shifts and depth-chart changes that actually move fantasy value. The throughline: this was an unusually brutal injury week (Barkley, Bigsby, Lamar Jackson, Thornton, Puka's scare, multiple offensive lines crumbling), and several backfields and passing games are getting genuinely rebuilt in real time.

The arguments

The Eagles offense is broken, not just banged up. Silva points to Jalen Hurts going 12-of-27 for 93 yards, a 45%+ three-and-out rate the worst of the century by success rate, and only 172 scrimmage yards against the Rams — the lowest in 12 years. Both hosts expect Will Shipley to take the lead role with Barkley (hamstring, week-to-week) and Bigsby (hernia surgery, six weeks) out, though Levitan notes the team traded for Bigsby last year instead of trusting Shipley, tempering his workhorse conviction.

Jeremiah Love's bizarre benching needs to be baked into his projection, not excused. Levitan was floored that the No. 3 overall pick played only 11 second-half snaps in a tight game and said postgame it had been "a long year" for his body. Silva leans toward believing the team's injury-management explanation (a compensation injury off his high ankle sprain), but both agree the inconsistency has to factor into weekly expectations, especially with Paris Johnson (torn biceps, done for the year) and other linemen now out too.

Puka Nakua's return was emphatic and the hosts aren't selling despite hernia rumors. He played 76 of 84 snaps, ran 49 routes on 54 Stafford dropbacks and handled 12 carries including a goal-line touch, prompting Silva to dismiss the "pre-hernia" chatter as unverified Twitter speculation. Both note the stark Devonte Adams split (39.5 and 20.7 PPR points without Puka vs. 5.6 and 7.2 with him) as the clearest evidence of Puka's primacy.

Chuba Hubbard's breakout vindicates ETR's offseason model over the Jonathan Brooks hype, and Bryce Young's turnaround is real but matchup-fueled. Levitan admits being badly wrong on Young after his earlier benching for Andy Dalton, while Silva credits Brad Idzik's in-game adjustment moving Ted McMillan into the slot after Denzel Ward shut him down outside. Both caution the Panthers have faced the league's easiest pass-defense slate and that Jalen Coker's return (questionable for Week 5) will cut into McMillan's target share.

Multiple backfields are shifting toward committee or new leads due to injury and inefficiency, and the hosts disagree on how much to trust small samples. Kenneth Walker (22-177-2) keeps outproducing name-brand backs; Zach Charbonnet is expected back in Weeks 6-7 and could reclaim Seattle's high-value touches from Kenneth Walker's... wait, from George Kippens' corner — actually from Emmanuel Wilson/Kenneth Walker is Seattle not Chiefs; David Montgomery (2.7 YPC, three forced missed tackles in three games) looks washed and the Texans' own analytics may be pushing Woody Marks forward, per GM Nick Caserio's public comments. Quinshawn Judkins is quietly turning into a real receiving back (14 targets, 15% share over three games) now that Dylan Sampson isn't healthy.

Backup-quarterback situations are degrading several offenses the hosts otherwise liked. Lamar Jackson's ankle sprain (outside chance for Week 5, possibly multiple games) hurts Zay Flowers, who Silva says has been the most productive receiver in football on a per-play basis; Tyler Huntley in relief is "not good" by both hosts' assessment, though Derrick Henry historically still produces big games with Huntley at QB. Similarly, Jameis Winston's turnover-prone "vintage" style is good for Malik Nabors' ceiling but bad for the Giants' floor, and Levitan admits he nearly recommended selling Nabors last week over fears of a J.J. McCarthy change.

What it means for your roster

  • Priority waiver claim: Will Shipley is this week's top running back add; both hosts expect him to lead Philadelphia's committee against Jacksonville, though neither is calling him a true workhorse given the team's history of limiting his touches.
  • Buy-low target: George Pickens, per Levitan, despite a quiet 3-target Week 4 — he ran 46 routes (one fewer than CeeDee Lamb) and profiles for a big Thursday-night game against Tampa Bay's bad defense.
  • Trust Puka Nakua fully in lineups; both hosts dismiss hernia concerns as unconfirmed and point to his 76-snap, 49-route workload as proof the Rams aren't managing him.
  • Fade/downgrade David Montgomery — both hosts call him close to unplayable even in good game scripts, with Woody Marks positioned to keep gaining touches per the GM's own public comments.
  • Start Tyler Higbee against Buffalo while Terrance Ferguson (IR) and Colby Parkinson are out — he's run the clear lead tight-end role in the Rams' base personnel.
  • Monitor Dante Myers (Bengals) and RJ Harvey (Broncos) as DFS/streaming options if Ja'Marr Chase (concussion, questionable) and Tee Higgins (day-to-day) are limited, and if Denver's offense keeps funneling checkdowns to Harvey over Jaleel McLaughlin.
“Sundays are for the poly bros.” — Evan Silva

Players in this episode

Puka Nacua · WR, LAR

↑ Returned from a hip injury and dominated Tariq Woolen, playing 76 of 84 snaps; hosts downplay hernia concerns and say he's too valuable to sell.

Lamar Jackson · QB, BAL

↓ Sprained his ankle getting tripped up while scrambling; reports indicate only an outside chance to play Week 5 and he could miss multiple games.

Saquon Barkley · RB, PHI

↓ Suffered a hamstring injury that caused him to immediately limp off; officially week-to-week and considered unlikely for Week 5 vs. Jacksonville.

CeeDee Lamb · WR, DAL

↑ Had 17 catches for 189 yards and a TD on 21 targets, moved into the slot more and is looking like a steal falling to the second round of drafts.

Kyren Williams · RB, LAR

↑ Has 21 catches in four games (already near his career high of 36) with a huge route/target share, making him a league-winning dual-threat asset.

Jeremiyah Love · RB, ARI

↓ The No. 3 overall pick played just 11 snaps in the second half of a close game and said afterward his body was tired, raising major trust concerns for his weekly workload going forward.

Kenneth Walker · RB, KC

↑ Went for 22 carries, 177 yards and two touchdowns in a win over the Raiders; hosts call him their 'personal hero' and stress need for him to stay healthy.

George Pickens · WR, DAL

↑ Only 3 targets despite running 46 routes; hosts call him a good buy-low given his talent and expect a big game vs. Tampa Bay.

Brock Bowers · TE, LV

↑ Lining up almost exclusively as a wide receiver/slot player since returning, making teammate Michael Mayer the de facto TE1 in a startable fantasy role.

Javonte Williams · RB, DAL

↑ Playing 75% of snaps and leads the NFL in carries inside the five-yard line, driving touchdown equity despite inconsistent per-carry efficiency.

Zay Flowers · WR, BAL

↓ Was the most productive WR in the NFL on a per-play basis before Lamar's injury; his ceiling is now capped with Tyler Huntley likely starting.

David Montgomery · RB, HOU

↓ Averaging just 2.7 yards per carry with almost no broken tackles even in a leading script, prompting the GM to publicly call for more Woody Marks usage; hosts call him nearly unplayable.

Bo Nix · QB, DEN

↓ Completion percentage and yards per attempt have cratered; tape shows him repeatedly checking down to RJ Harvey instead of hitting wide-open receivers downfield.

Chuba Hubbard · RB, CAR

↑ Hosts admit being badly wrong in the preseason; Hubbard has been one of the best fantasy RB picks of the year so far.

Michael Wilson · WR, ARI

↑ Has posted 27%, 34% and 37% target shares over the last three weeks with Jacoby Brissett at QB, making him a strong play whenever Brissett starts.

Alvin Kamara · RB, NO

↓ Scored two short TDs and caught five passes despite losing burst and not making defenders miss; still fantasy-viable purely due to high-value goal-line/receiving work.

Bryce Young · QB, CAR

↑ Threw for 329 yards and two TDs with no picks vs. Detroit; hosts admit they were wrong to doubt him and now compare his accuracy/decision-making to peak Drew Brees.

Tank Bigsby · RB, PHI

↓ Needs surgery for a sports hernia and will be out roughly six weeks, clearing a path for Will Shipley.

Michael Penix · QB, ATL

↑ Falcons have scored 80 points and 918 yards of offense in two games since his return, running a heavy play-action attack that funnels targets to Drake London.

Tyquan Thornton · WR, KC

↓ Was outplaying Xavier Worthy before dislocating his ankle on a gruesome play and is expected to miss significant time, likely the rest of the season.

Will Shipley · RB, PHI

↑ With Barkley hurt and Bigsby needing hernia surgery, Shipley is expected to take over as the lead back vs. Jacksonville and is tabbed the top waiver-wire RB target, though hosts question if it'll be a true workhorse role.

← Back to the pods feed