Week 4 Fantasy Recap
Matthew, Michelle, and Mo recap a brutal injury-heavy Week 4, spotlighting breakout games from Tetairoa McMillan, Chuba Hubbard, and Drake May while sounding alarms on the collapsing Eagles offense and underperformers like Jeremiah Love, Josh Downs, and Garrett Wilson. They close with early Week 5 waiver targets and Monday Night Football prop bets.
The hosts open their Week 4 recap by cataloguing an unusually brutal injury slate and then pivoting hard into actionable reads on the week's breakouts, buy-lows, and sell-highs — Ted Rowe McMillan's explosion, Chuba Hubbard's ascension, Drake May's bounce-back, and the Eagles' offensive collapse all get real scrutiny. Berry and Mo largely agree on strategy throughout, with occasional pushback from Beadle, landing on a core thesis: don't overreact to one huge game, but do act fast on role changes created by injury.
The arguments
The injury wave was historically bad, and backup options benefit immediately. Berry ran down Lamar Jackson, Saquon Barkley, Jamar Chase, Tee Higgins, Rasheed Rice, Ladd McConkie, and DJ Moore all leaving games early. He framed this as "next man up" territory — pointing specifically to Keon Coleman (23% target share replacing Moore) and Chase Brown-style backfield bumps — while noting none looked season-ending at taping time.
Ted Rowe McMillan's monster game is a sell-high, not a new baseline. Berry cited the 41% target share and 46% air-yards share against a bottom-three Lions defense, but stressed this is only McMillan's second career 20-point game and labeled him more floor than ceiling. Mo countered that Bryce Young's rapport with McMillan (nine-plus targets yielding 22.5 points/game across seven career games) and Dave Canales' scheme — using him as a big-bodied slot mismatch — make the usage sustainable regardless of one huge outlier game.
Chuba Hubbard is this year's Javante Williams. With Jonathan Brooks on IR, Hubbard is averaging 20+ fantasy points over two games with a running back-8 utilization score. Berry called him a low-end-to-borderline RB1 in an explosive offense, and Mo agreed with the comparison, noting the Panthers are on a bye before a tougher Eagles matchup.
Javante Williams and CeeDee Lamb present opposite trade profiles. Berry wants to sell Williams at RB1 prices because he's touchdown-dependent (44% of his points from scores) and inefficient (sub-3.5 YPC in three of four games), valuing him as a real RB2. He simultaneously wants to buy George Pickens low, arguing defenses can't keep bracketing CeeDee Lamb (50%+ target share, tied for seventh-most catches in NFL history in one game) and that Dak will find second/third options.
Drake May's breakout against Buffalo is legitimate, not a mirage. Berry and Mo agreed the turnovers (fumble aside) were largely bad luck, pointing to his career-high 54 rushing yards and improved red-zone confidence, including a trust throw to Hunter Henry on third down. Berry added real-life context: beating a division-rival Super Bowl contender on the road should be a major confidence boost worth "three games" of value.
The Eagles offense is in full crisis, and it's coaching malpractice more than personnel. Mo called it the worst start to a Philadelphia offense this century statistically, citing an 0-for-17 third-down streak and Sean Mannion-style scheme failures without Saquon. Berry agreed the offense is broken (31% play-success rate, 3 yards/play) but pushed back on full panic, saying Hurts and Barkley (if healthy) are still must-starts — just with real pause given the tough road trip to face Jacksonville in London.
Kyren Williams has fully separated from Blake Corum. Berry noted Williams is playing 76% of snaps with a 47-14 touch edge and double-digit target share in three of four games, dismantling the preseason "game-script will favor Corum" theory since the Rams haven't been blowing teams out.
What it means for your roster
- Buy low: George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb's Cowboys offense context make Pickens a buy; Mo and Berry also flagged Garrett Wilson (still a 27% target share despite a quiet box score) as a buy-low given the Jets' time-of-possession problem, not a talent issue.
- Sell high: Shop Ted Rowe McMillan and Javante Williams now while they're priced as top-10 assets — Berry explicitly said take any offer valuing Williams as a top-10 overall player.
- Waiver priorities: Add Emmanuel Wilson immediately (should've gone last week; 24 of 32 Seahawks RB touches), stash Tyreek Hill given signing buzz, and grab Keon Coleman plus Trey Harris with DJ Moore/McConkie banged up. Tank Bigsby and Will Shipley are must-adds given Eagles backfield uncertainty.
- Hold, don't panic: Jeremiah Love's benching was scheme-based (pass-pro reasons), not a demotion — keep starting him given upcoming Lions/Cowboys matchups. Same for Josh Downs and Travis Kelce (buy-the-dip territory as Kelce's workload should rise with Rashee Rice out).
- Start with caution: Hurts and Barkley remain likely starts, but the London game against Jacksonville is tough enough to warrant a second look at alternatives if you have depth.
- Speculative add: TJ Hockenson is trending toward tight-end-one territory — 21%+ target share in three of four games and a 44% red-zone target share — worth rostering in TE-needy leagues.
“This is going to be the longest year of my career.” — Jeremiah Love
Players in this episode
↑ Bounced back with 269 passing and 54 rushing yards against Buffalo, showing improved ball security and red-zone confidence; hosts believe the turnaround is real and sustainable.
↑ Third straight game with 7+ catches and 100+ yards, tied for 7th-most catches in NFL history in a game; considered a lock given 50% of team's end zone targets.
→ Left Week 4 early with a hamstring injury described as 'not overly serious' per Ian Rapoport, but status for Week 5 uncertain.
↑ Playing 76% of snaps over the last two weeks and getting double-digit target share in three of four games, reasserting himself as a clear RB1 over Blake Corum.
↓ Played under 50% of snaps and fewer than Alexander Mattison-type backup Tyler Algier, reportedly for pass-protection reasons; hosts expect this role split to reverse but are frustrated given his draft capital.
↑ Averaging almost 25 touches a game with a 16% target share and the highest rate of 20+ yard carries in the NFL; hosts call him a top running back and potential Offensive Player of the Year.
↑ Hosts see him as a buy-low candidate since defenses can't fully bracket Lamb and Dak will look to his second/third options.
↓ QB21 over the last three weeks averaging just 14 points, with the Eagles having the worst offensive start this century; still likely a must-start but tougher matchup ahead at Jacksonville (London).
→ Big stat game but inefficient (under 3.5 YPC in 3 of 4 games) and heavily touchdown-dependent; hosts value him as a true RB2 and would sell at RB1 price if offered.
↓ Did not play due to a hamstring injury that appears more serious than initially thought; could miss multiple weeks.
→ Exploded for a huge game with a 41% target share against a weak Lions defense while Jalen Coker was out, but hosts view it as likely his season peak and a sell-high/buy-low trade chip.
→ Only 27 yards despite a 27% target share due to the Jets' poor time of possession; hosts remain optimistic and call him a buy-low.
↓ Benched after fumbling for the second time this season; Ben Johnson confirmed it wasn't injury-related, raising concern about his role going forward.
↑ Posted a 43% target share with downfield usage from Cam Ward; ranks in elite rookie company (Chase, Lamb, Nacua) in targets/air yards, seen as legit breakout.
↑ Took over as the Bears' lead back with 30 carries after D'Andre Swift was benched for fumbling; left the game with a thumb injury but has earned a bigger role when healthy.
↑ Averaging over 20 fantasy points per game since Jonathan Brooks' injury, compared to last year's breakout Javonte Williams as a 'boring' middle-round back now paying off as a low-end RB1.
→ First game all season with under 18% target share in a low-volume, weird game script for Trevor Lawrence; hosts say not to panic and to buy if others do.
→ Dropped to just a 9% target share and 56% route rate in each of the last two games after a hot start; coach Joe Brady admitted needing to get him the ball more, giving some hope.
→ Only 15 yards with just a 12% target share over the last two weeks, but with Rashee Rice out, hosts expect more involvement and still rank him inside the top 12 tight ends.
→ Only 16 yards despite a 95% route participation rate in a game hosts call inexplicable; expect him to bounce back.
↑ Led the team with 13 catches and a 44% red-zone target share with Justin Jefferson out, pushing him onto the TE1 radar as Kyler Murray's new favorite target.
↑ Reports suggest he could sign with a team (possibly Kansas City) this week; hosts recommend stashing him immediately since he's a free agent not subject to waivers.
↑ Handled 24 of 32 Seahawks RB touches and 100% of red zone/goal-line work with Jaydon Blue/Price banged up; strong short-term flex play, especially vs. Chargers.
↑ Saw a 23% target share and six receptions in two of the last three games filling in for DJ Moore; expected to be a popular, widely available waiver pickup.
↑ Took over after a big 52-yard run, playing 88% of second-half snaps and getting goal-line work over Jaylen Wright; now viewed as a low-end flex.