1130: 10 Trends for Week 3

This episode of the Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast runs through ten early-season usage trends after Week 2, with J.J. Zacharysen repeatedly pushing back against overreacting to small samples while still identifying real signals in target and route data. The central argument: some Week 2 anomalies (Bears WRs, Cardinals TE/WR split, Ravens rushing) are noise that should regress, while others (Panthers pace, Jaguars WR usage, Buccaneers personnel) reflect real structural changes worth acting on now.

The arguments

The Bears' pass-catcher chaos is being driven by Kalief Raymond, not by Luther Burden or Colston Loveland underperforming. Zacharysen expected Burden, Loveland, and Odunze to combine for roughly a 70% target share, but through two games they're at 43% combined while 32-year-old Raymond sits at a 25% target share and 67% route share — higher than any single core player. He attributes this partly to Odunze's offseason injury and Burden missing camp, and says he's more worried about Loveland's fantasy outlook than Burden's or Odunze's since Loveland leads the team in routes but still hasn't converted, meaning there's no easy "usage" excuse for him.

Trey McBride's target monster role is not sustainable, and that matters for how you view Marvin Harrison Jr. McBride is being targeted on over 40% of his routes, a 15-point jump from last year's already-massive workload, and Zacharysen argues this can't hold given he already led all tight ends in route volume last season. He states Harrison Jr. can be dropped in shallower leagues given his rock-bottom target rate per route, but stresses that as McBride's usage normalizes, those targets should flow back to Harrison and Michael Wilson rather than viewing Harrison in isolation.

New England's backfield split is back to a genuine committee, not a Henderson takeover. Travon Henderson out-snapped and out-carried Rhamondre Stevenson after Stevenson's fumble, but Zacharysen notes Stevenson still played two-thirds of third downs and was equally or more efficient on a small sample (4-for-6 successful runs vs. Henderson's 4-for-16). He's moved the two running backs back to essentially even, ranking them back-to-back in rest-of-season rankings rather than fading Stevenson.

Carolina's pace and pass rate over expected make their passing-game pieces sustainable buys, particularly Jalen Coker. The Panthers lead the league in neutral-script pass rate over expected and in overall pace, a sharp reversal from ranking 22nd in the former last year. Zacharysen frames this combination of extra volume and extra plays as a "perfect fantasy storm," calling Coker a role that should stick regardless.

Parker Washington's Week 2 role is a legitimate, sustainable target hog role, not a fluke. With a more neutral game script than Week 1, Washington posted a 90% route share and was the primary 12-personnel receiver over Brian Thomas Jr., a sharp change from his 57% route share in that package last year. He ranks top-four among all receivers with 30+ routes in points, yards, and targets per route run, prompting Zacharysen to rank him as his rest-of-season WR1 even while conceding his target rate will regress from its current pace.

Baker Mayfield's efficiency collapses without Mike Evans on the field, and it's severe enough to bench him in single-QB leagues for now. Since 2023, Mayfield ranks top-five in EPA per dropback among qualified passers with Evans on the field but bottom-third without him, a split built on nearly 2,000 combined dropbacks. Zacharysen says this isn't necessarily "the" problem but is clearly "a" problem, and wants multiple strong performances before trusting Mayfield in lineups again.

Lamar Jackson's rushing profile is trending down, and it's tied to Baltimore's new under-center-heavy scheme. Jackson has just one designed run through two games versus 2.2 per game last season and 4.8 in 2024, while his scramble rate has stayed flat. Zacharysen cites outside research (Gridiron Deep Dive) showing shotgun rush plays are roughly twice as likely to be QB runs as under-center plays, and Baltimore's under-center rate has nearly doubled to 29.5% this year — a real scheme-driven concern for Jackson's rushing upside, not just randomness.

What it means for your roster

• Don't panic-drop Burden or Odunze, but monitor Raymond's route share closely; if it doesn't decline, Chicago's pass-catcher hierarchy may not resolve as drafted.
• Marvin Harrison Jr. is a justifiable drop in shallow leagues, but expect McBride's target rate to regress and volume to redistribute toward Harrison and Michael Wilson in deeper/dynasty formats — don't fully write off Harrison's outlook.
• Keep Stevenson and Henderson rostered as a near-even committee; the Week 2 flip doesn't yet justify cutting or fully benching either back.
• Target Jalen Coker and buy into Carolina's passing pieces given the offense's pace and pass-rate profile, which Zacharysen expects to persist.
• Parker Washington is a priority add/hold and is ranked as a rest-of-season WR1, given his real, expanding 12-personnel role.
• Sit Baker Mayfield in single-QB leagues until he strings together multiple strong games, especially any week Mike Evans is limited or out; consider Cade Otton (Ted Hurst) as a streaming/stash tight end given his 72% route share and expected-points profile.
• Hold Quinshon Judkins rather than trade low — his third-and-long snap share rose even as raw route share dipped, and better usage could emerge as Cleveland's game scripts normalize.