1115: Players to Target

This episode is the annual "players to target" collaboration between JJ Zacharyasen and Establish the Run's Evan Silva, where each brings five ADP-based value plays for the 2026 season. The central argument throughout is that draft capital and situation should override recency bias and public perception — several of the ten picks are players coming off down years, injuries, or crowded depth charts whose actual opportunity outstrips where they're currently being drafted.

The arguments

Kenneth Walker should be drafted as a first-round talent despite falling to the second round. Silva argues the Chiefs paid Walker nearly $15 million a year and have almost no in-house competition, with Mahomes expected to run less after ACL/LCL surgery, pushing more checkdowns and screens Walker's way. Zacharyasen adds that Kansas City faced the league's highest rate of light boxes last year and that Walker's explosiveness (15% ten-plus-yard run rate) should translate into major success-rate gains behind an eighth-ranked offensive line.

Parker Washington is a legitimate post-hype breakout, but the hosts split on conviction. Silva cites Washington's massive route-share and efficiency jump after Travis Hunter's injury (79% route share, better yards per route run than Brian Thomas and Jacoby Myers) and a historical model showing efficient-but-low-volume middle-round receivers outperform ADP by 1.2 points per game. Zacharyasen is more hesitant, worried about competition from Thomas, Myers, and Hunter for touches, calling himself "on the fence" despite ranking Washington 60th overall versus his 90th overall ADP.

Javante Williams is a divisive round-three running back where the hosts land on similar rankings for different reasons. Silva leans on the Cowboys' actions — a big re-signing as their second offseason move, no drafted or signed competition, and a top-10 run-blocking line — to argue Williams belongs near the 2-3 turn. Zacharyasen counters with the receiving inefficiency (0.4 yards per route run) but ultimately lands close to Silva (RB15/RB12) rather than fading him, while both express more skepticism toward Jeremiah Love in the same range.

Chase Brown is a round-two lock for both hosts. Zacharyasen frames him as the offense's stabilizing force behind Kenneth Walker in that tier, pointing to a 20.4 PPG stretch once Joe Burrow returned and offensive line continuity (the first year Burrow keeps the same starting five) as reasons to expect a jump from a bottom-tier line to middle-of-the-road. Silva fully agrees, adding that the Bengals haven't invested in a receiving threat behind Brown, cementing his role as a virtual third receiver.

Mike Evans represents a high-upside, discounted bet in San Francisco. Silva argues Evans' ADP has fallen only because of an unrelated lingering injury scare, even though the 49ers' pass-catching corps behind him is thin (Kittle's Achilles, Pearsall out, Deebo recalled out of desperation). Zacharyasen backs this with Brock Purdy's number-one ranking in completion percentage on 20-plus air yard throws, calling the volume opportunity for a fifth/sixth-round receiver "crazy."

Malik Willis is a game-theory dart throw on rushing floor, not a passing bet. Zacharyasen's case rests on a historical model: 25 quarterback seasons with 300+ attempts and 7+ rushing points per game since 2011, nearly all finishing top-20 at the position. Silva supports the price given Miami's improved offensive line (highlighting Aaron Brewer as a potential Protector of the Year-level center) but flags the league's worst receiving corps as the real risk to Willis keeping the job over Quinn Ewers.

Jordan Tyson and Dalton Kincaid are the two "quiet confidence" picks the hosts are most aligned on. Zacharyasen has held Tyson as his WR1 rookie since January, citing a 99th-percentile breakout score and a historical comp group (Chase, Lamb, Waddle, London) that averaged 14.2 PPG as rookies. On Kincaid, Zacharyasen highlights an elite 2.79 yards per route run (top-seven since 2011) undermined only by a 51% route share while playing through a PCL injury, arguing full health could push him into the tight end one conversation.

What it means for your roster

• Draft Kenneth Walker aggressively in the mid-to-late second round — both hosts have him well above ADP (RB5–RB9) as a true offensive centerpiece.
• Target Chase Brown as an auto-pick anywhere in the second round, especially valuable if he's falling to the back half of that range.
• Take a value flier on Parker Washington around pick 90 if he's still there in season-long formats, but don't reach into round five where better talent is available.
• Mike Evans is a legitimate WR3/WR4 at his current fifth-to-sixth-round cost — buy the dip caused by injury concerns rather than avoid it.
• Draft Malik Willis as a pure best-ball/bench dart late, paired with a stable starter like Bo Nix, purely for rushing-floor upside.
• Move Jordan Tyson and Dalton Kincaid up your board — Tyson as a top-51 overall asset far ahead of his ADP, and Kincaid as a sleeper push toward mid-range TE1 value if camp health reports hold.