Fantasy Football Q&A: Answering Your Biggest Draft Questions + Latest Camp Updates (08/08 Fantasy Football Podcast)
Adam, Dave, and guest John Daigle (Establish The Run) ran a mailbag covering camp news and a slate of listener questions, with recurring themes of finding discounted talent (Ladd McConkey, Jeremiah Love) and identifying players with the widest range of outcomes (Tetairoa McMillan, TreVeyon Henderson, Christian McCaffrey). They also debated non-PPR strategy, the Falcons' QB change's impact on Drake London, and fielded several keeper/dynasty mailbag questions before a St. Jude patient interview.
This episode is a mailbag/Q&A hour with Establish the Run's John Daigle joining hosts Adam, Dave, and Jamie to work through reader-submitted keeper, draft, and format questions, plus news updates from around the league. The through-line is that this year's mid-round tiers — receivers, McCaffrey, rookie backs — are far less settled than ADP suggests, and the hosts spend most of the show arguing about where the real value and risk actually sit.
The arguments
Ladd McConkie is a discounted WR1 masquerading as a WR2/3. Daigle argues Mike McDaniel already turned Tua into a high-efficiency passer in Miami and now inherits Justin Herbert, who was already the fantasy QB2 behind Josh Allen. McDaniel's Miami offenses led the league in motion-heavy dropbacks, and McConkie has a 23% career target share on motion plays, so Daigle sees him as a wide receiver being drafted like a WR2/3 (4-5 turn) who should go off the board at the 2-3 turn.
The Colts' passing efficiency last year was a mirage, and that drags down the whole offense's fantasy value. Daigle notes Indy's first-half EPA/play with Daniel Jones was the best of any offense since 2018 Mahomes, but Jones' career resume doesn't support that continuing, and the second half of last season the offense fell to 21st in EPA/play — with Jonathan Taylor still finishing as RB10 per game even in that stretch. He frames this as reason to be skeptical the offense repeats its ceiling, which should pull down ADP across the Colts.
Zay Flowers' ceiling is finally unlocked by scheme, not talent. Adam and Daigle point to reports that Rashod Bateman is being moved around the formation more under new OC Declan Doyle as a signal the whole passing game is diversifying. Daigle argues Flowers has never gotten meaningful end-zone or red-zone usage (never more than seven end-zone targets in a season) and compares the situation to Kellen Moore giving Chris Olave a career-high slot rate and target share in New Orleans — a route-tree change, not new talent, is what raises Flowers' ceiling.
Devonta Smith is preferred over Zay Flowers as a WR1 in a 12-team PPR build. Both Daigle and Dave rank Smith a tier above Flowers, with Daigle citing Smith's 39% target share over 159 A.J. Brown-less routes the past two years as evidence of his range of outcomes even though Brown's absence removes competition for targets. Dave adds the Eagles are collectively underpriced (Barkley, Smith, Hurts, Goedert) because the market is still discounting for Kevin Petulo-era play-calling, which Kellen Moore no longer runs.
Jordan Addison/Bo Nix aside, Drake London's outlook leans toward Michael Penix over Tua. Dave and Daigle both prefer Penix for London, citing London's finish as a top-three receiver per game with Penix late in 2024 and noting Penix's downfield aggressiveness versus Tua ranking bottom-six in air yards per target since 2024. A listener pushback (cited from chat) argued Tua's mobility and prior top-offense results are being underrated, but the hosts held their position that Penix guarantees more target intent even if Tua offers an easier-catch floor.
Christian McCaffrey is fundamentally a two-outcome player, and this year's middle-round running back depth makes fading him easier. Adam frames McCaffrey as either a league-winner or a lineup-killer, and Daigle admits he drafted McCaffrey over Saquon Barkley 100% of the time last year based on shakier reasoning, watching McCaffrey return only 17.7 points per game as last year's RB14. This year, with Gibbs, Bijan, Chase, Puka, and JSN clearly ahead of the pack, Daigle argues the tier behind McCaffrey (Chase Brown, Kyren Williams/Ashton Jeanty types) is deep enough that skipping McCaffrey for a hero-RB build is more viable than last season.
Jeremiah Love is a fair bet at his ADP despite Ashton Jeanty's rookie-year disappointment looming as a cautionary comp. A listener notes Jeanty was the worst top-10-drafted rookie RB in PPR (RB15) over the last decade-plus, and asks if Love (currently RB14 in ADP) is being overdrafted. Daigle counters that Love fits a historical archetype of explosive, high-target-share backs (grouping him with Breece Hall) and cites a speed-score threshold (110+) shared by hits like Gibbs, Barkley, Etienne, Fournette, and Elliott — arguing the profile justifies a mid-third/fourth-round swing regardless of Jeanty's poor rookie output, which the hosts partly attribute to Jacksonville's historically bad offensive line rather than Jeanty himself.
What it means for your roster
- Draft Ladd McConkie at the 2-3 round turn, not the 4-5 turn where ADP currently has him — Daigle and the hosts see him as a value WR1 given McDaniel's motion-heavy scheme fit with Herbert.
- Fade Alec Pierce coming off injury — Daigle's stated approach is to systematically discount injured players heading into the season regardless of optimistic return timelines; prefer Josh Downs in the same offense right now.
- Be cautious drafting into the Colts passing-game ceiling (Jonathan Taylor, Daniel Jones, pass-catchers) given the hosts' expectation of regression toward the offense's much worse second-half-2024 form.
- In a 12-team PPR draft, take Devonta Smith over Zay Flowers if forced to choose a WR1, per Daigle and Dave, while still valuing Flowers as a rising ceiling play given Baltimore's more diverse scheme reports.
- For Drake London, lean into games with Michael Penix over Tua when setting weekly expectations or valuing him in trade/keeper scenarios.
- Consider a hero-RB build that skips Christian McCaffrey this year — the RB depth behind him (Chase Brown and similar) is strong enough to make the McCaffrey bust risk avoidable in a way it wasn't last season.
- Jeremiah Love is a justifiable pick at his current ADP (mid-third/fourth round) based on his explosive-back profile, despite Ashton Jeanty's poor rookie output serving as the bear case cited by a listener.
“I'm just going to do that and cross my fingers.” — John Daigle
Players in this episode
↑ Now the highest-paid RB in football, signed and in camp; considered the clear RB1 overall.
→ Was RB10 per game even in a worse second-half Colts offense; hosts question if the Colts revert to that less-efficient version under Daniel Jones.
→ Coming off 450+ touches at age 30, seen as a true hero-or-zero asset; hosts have shifted away from auto-drafting him in the top 10 this year.
→ Currently the worst-performing top-10 rookie RB draft pick in over a decade (RB15 per game), but blamed on a historically bad offensive line and play-calling rather than talent.
↑ Hosts favor Michael Penix Jr. over Tua-style QB play for unlocking London's downfield ceiling, citing his strong 2024 stretch with Penix.
↑ Compared to Ashton Jeanty's archetype (elite speed score for size); a strong bet in the mid-third/fourth round despite lower rookie draft capital than Bijan/Gibbs.
↑ Viewed in the same tier as Ashton Jeanty and Saquon Barkley as a strong running back option this year.
↓ Consequential ADP given questions about whether Dallas' improved defense (Quinnen Williams, Caleb Downs additions) will reduce the pass-heavy game script that fueled last year's passing stats.
↓ Had one of the lowest depths of target in the league last year, raising doubts about his ceiling as a second-round pick.
→ Range of outcomes spans from being dropped by week six to being a league winner amid a rocky training camp.
→ Named as having one of the widest ranges of outcomes — could be a top-5 fantasy WR or fall behind Jalen Coker in target share if Carolina leans run-heavy.
↑ Preferred over Zay Flowers as a WR1; grouped in a tier with Nico Collins and Chris Olave, with target share upside now that A.J. Brown's presence changes the target distribution.
→ Could be a top-5 fantasy player given his explosive skill set, but risks a committee split with Rhamondre Stevenson that tanks both players' value.
↑ Daigle calls him a discounted WR1 due to McDaniel's motion-heavy scheme and McConkey's 23% career target share on motion plays.
↓ Dealing with a strain, expected to be out 4-5 days.
↑ Ravens' offense appears to be modernizing route trees; Flowers has never had more than seven end-zone targets, so a scheme change could raise his ceiling.
↓ Hosts aren't willing to pay his ADP price compared to elite WRs/QBs in that range, citing last year's Colts offensive regression.
↓ No clear timetable for return from ankle surgery; hosts say don't draft him heavily given injury/ramp-up risk.
↑ Preferred over the injured Alec Pierce heading into the season.
↑ Reportedly moving around the formation more, which could mean added fantasy value and signals a more diverse route scheme for the Ravens' receivers.