10 fantasy data points you need to know for Week 5
Matt Harmon and Ray Garvin break down 10 key fantasy data points from Week 4, headlined by Lane Johnson's surprise retirement and its devastating ripple effects on an already-collapsing Philadelphia Eagles offense. They also dig into advanced usage metrics (Trinity scores, air yard share, target data) to identify over/underperforming players like the Raiders' two-tight-end attack, Denver's RJ Harvey, rookie receivers Carnell Tate and Denzel Boston, and close with their Yahoo Expert League recap.
This episode is the Tuesday data-dump format: Matt Harmon and Ray Garvin work through ten statistical findings for Week 5, built around opening breaking news (Lane Johnson's retirement) and closing with their expert league recap. The through-line is that usage and efficiency data are already diverging sharply from preseason expectations at the receiver, running back, and team-offense levels, and the hosts use that gap to recommend specific starts, sits, and waiver claims.
The arguments
Lane Johnson's retirement pushes the Eagles offense from bad to unplayable for fantasy. Garvin laid out the full statistical collapse — 29th in passing success rate, 26th in rushing success rate, 27th in third-down conversion and yards per play, and the worst Eagles offense by success rate in decades through four weeks. Harmon added that losing a Hall-of-Fame-caliber tackle to rookie Markel Bell makes an already-broken unit worse, and both agreed Jalen Hurts can no longer be trusted as a fantasy starter since his rushing/goal-line role (including the tush push) has evaporated along with the offense's scoring chances.
The Yahoo internal win-rate list confirms which draft bets actually paid off. Garvin shared the top 15 players by 55%+ Yahoo win rate (Kenneth Walker, JSN, Kyron Williams, CeeDee Lamb, Jameer Gibbs, Derrick Henry, Josh Allen, George Kittle, Chuba Hubbard, among others), and both hosts used it to validate specific preseason calls — Walker as a turn-round value, Olave and Christian Watson as offense-based bets that hit. On Josh Allen, Harmon argued he's still worth his actual second-round price given the gap between him and the rest of the field, while late-round quarterbacks like Brock Purdy, Jared Goff, and Bryce Young are outscoring early-round picks like Jayden Daniels and Drake May — reinforcing a "hit right or wait" quarterback strategy.
The Raiders have built an offense with zero wide receivers among its top target earners — a historically unprecedented structure. Garvin's data search found no team since 2009 has had two tight ends and a running back as its top three target earners through four weeks, which Las Vegas has done with Brock Bowers, Michael Mayer, and Ashton Jeanty. Both hosts agreed this is sustainable specifically because Bowers functions as a wide receiver (47% of snaps out wide) rather than a traditional tight end, making all three playable most weeks.
Rushing efficiency data flags Jalen Warren as underpriced and Bhasil Tootin as a buy-low target, while Cam Skattebo and Chase Brown lag. Garvin's efficiency-versus-fantasy-points model shows Pittsburgh 10th in rushing efficiency but 27th in RB fantasy points, driven by Warren's workload (97% snap share); Harmon ranks him his RB10. Garvin separately pushed hard on trading for Tootin given Jacksonville's efficient run environment and good defense, while flagging Skattebo's non-existent receiving role and Chase Brown's reliance on catches as red flags.
RJ Harvey is the season's clearest "PPR running back scam" case — huge target share, no rushing or touchdown equity. Garvin's numbers show Harvey targeted on 42% of his routes (highest in the NFL) despite only 12 carries through four games, driven by Bo Nix's league-leading checkdown rate and near-zero scramble rate. Both hosts agreed Sean Payton's clear role split (Jonah Coleman/J.K. Dobbins to run, Harvey to catch) caps his upside since he has no rushing or touchdown equity to fall back on.
Marvin Harrison Jr. should be benched even in an elite shootout matchup, while rookies Carnell Tate and Denzel Boston deserve season-long buy-in. Garvin's usage score (Trinity) has Harrison below league average in target share and overall involvement, and he said he'd start 34+ other receivers ahead of him this week against Detroit. By contrast, Tate (73% of Tennessee's air yards) and Boston (63% of Cleveland's air yards) lead the entire NFL in downfield opportunity share, which both hosts view as more predictive of eventual production than their teams' poor overall offensive environments.
The Chargers are doubling down on an inefficient run-first approach that is sinking Herbert, Hampton, and McConkie's fantasy value. Garvin's pace/tendency data shows L.A. running on 52% of neutral situations despite ranking 28th in rush EPA, with a league-trailing time between snaps and a three-way backfield split. Both hosts moved Herbert into "total panic" territory for the column/show, arguing the coaching staff's preseason promises of an opened-up passing game have not materialized.
What it means for your roster
- Bench/fade all Eagles skill players this week, including Jalen Hurts as a must-start QB; the Jaguars' elite zone-coverage secondary in London makes a prove-it game unlikely, and DeVonta Smith (hamstring) may not be back until after the Week 6 Panthers game.
- Start all three Raiders pass-catchers (Bowers, Mayer, Jeanty) when available — the two-tight-end, no-WR target structure is unusually stable because Bowers plays like a receiver.
- Trade for Bhasil Tootin now if the manager offering him is giving up assets like David Montgomery or Treveyon Henderson; Garvin called him a "league-winning" buy-low given Jacksonville's run efficiency and defense.
- Treat RJ Harvey as a high-floor/low-ceiling flex, not a true RB1 — he'll rack up catches and targets but has negative air-yard share and no clear path to touchdowns or rushing volume.
- Sit Marvin Harrison Jr. even in good matchups; prioritize Carnell Tate (WR3) and Denzel Boston (WR2) on your Week 5 streaming radar over him.
- Downgrade Justin Herbert, Omarion Hampton, and Ladd McConkie expectations given the Chargers' run-heavy, slow-tempo approach; don't bank on positive touchdown or volume regression soon.
- Claim Brenton Strange off waivers (27% rostered) if you're hurting at tight end — his route share has climbed to 85% and he's Jacksonville's clear second option behind Parker Washington, facing an Eagles defense exploitable up the middle.
“Man, it's disgusting football going on in Denver.” — Matt Harmon
Players in this episode
↑ Only QB on the top-15 win-rate list; hosts argue he's worth his actual second-round ADP and is clearly the best fantasy QB by a wide margin.
↑ Near top of the win-rate list; hosts note this undercuts the argument that fading him for George Pickens in later rounds was the smarter play.
→ Leads all RBs in usage via receiving work despite still looking less than 100% healthy and having zero rushing touchdowns this season.
↑ Tops the Yahoo win-rate list and hosts take credit for pounding the table on him as a value pick at the turn before the season.
↑ Functions as a movable WR rather than traditional TE, running real downfield routes (34% air yard share) and co-leading the team in targets alongside Michael Mayer.
↓ His rushing juice is gone with no goal-line opportunities, and hosts say he can no longer be ranked as a must-start fantasy QB, especially against Jacksonville's tough secondary.
↓ Out with a hamstring injury and may miss multiple weeks; hosts say even upon return he's now a lower-end fantasy option given the offensive line collapse.
↓ Placed in 'total panic' amid a dysfunctional, run-heavy, slow-tempo offense that isn't opening up despite preseason hype about new concepts.
↓ Disappointingly underused as a receiver despite being one of the most efficient receiving backs in his draft class, limiting his fantasy ceiling.
↑ Ranked 10th among all RBs despite a middling offense; running on 97% of snaps and called a locked-in weekly starter, with sell-high consideration once Rico Dowdle returns.
→ Leads the NFL in target rate among pass catchers despite only 12 carries through four games, benefiting from Bo Nix's heavy checkdown tendencies; little rushing upside expected.
↑ Rookie commands an absurd 70%+ of the team's air yards in Week 4 and is winning on breaking routes despite poor QB play from Cam Ward.
↓ Usage remains well below league average (8.1% target share) and hosts say they'd rather start 34+ other receivers over him even in a great Lions matchup.
↓ Rookie receiver has been a 'total nothing burger' so far due to missed camp time and the Eagles' inability to sustain drives.
↑ Route participation and targets have climbed every week; ranked second on the team in usage behind only Parker Washington, making him a streamable TE against Philadelphia.
↑ Owns over 60% of Cleveland's air yards in Week 4, among the best rookie usage profiles in the league despite a rough offensive situation.
↑ Usage has shifted away from being a pure X-receiver with fewer go routes and more movement, producing his best efficiency numbers of his career last week.
↓ Announced his retirement mid-season due to his body no longer being able to handle playing; hosts called him a Hall of Fame-caliber tackle whose loss will make a bad Eagles offense worse.
↑ Tied for the team lead in targets as a more traditional inline tight end, benefiting from the Raiders' unprecedented two-TE-centric passing attack.
↓ Ranked only RB27-29 by Harmon, with no excitement about his role even as presumptive lead back behind a shaky Eagles offensive line.