1138: 10 Trends for Week 5

# Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast Ep. 1138: 10 Trends for Week 5 — Deep Dive

JJ Zacharyasen runs through ten week-five statistical trends, using data on touchdown regression, target share, route depth, and efficiency splits to separate real signal from early-season noise. The throughline is that touchdown-scoring patterns and usage splits from the first month barely predict the rest of the season, while baseline offensive efficiency does — a distinction he applies player by player to reframe who's actually in trouble and who isn't.

The arguments

Josh Downs isn't washed, but the matchup logic that burned people in Week 4 was flawed. JJ admits he was high on Downs against Washington because the Commanders are weak on the perimeter, but he underweighted that Washington is specifically tough on slot receivers, and Downs posted a 73% slot rate — his highest since Week 1 — because Keenan Allen still occupied the perimeter. Downs remains top-20 in expected PPR points and should hold as a WR3, but JJ flags Daniel Jones' declining efficiency as the bigger long-term concern.

Jonathan Taylor's touchdown share is historically unsustainable, even though he's not a sell. Taylor has scored 60% of Indianapolis' offensive touchdowns, ten points higher than any back since 2016, while the Colts rank bottom-half in EPA per play and 23rd in scoring-drive rate. JJ keeps Taylor as his rest-of-season RB4 but warns the scoring pace tied to this specific role is very likely to come down.

Team touchdown-scoring style (pass vs. run) regresses hard, almost regardless of early split. Using data since 2016, JJ shows the gap between high-passing-TD and high-rushing-TD teams through four weeks shrinks from 60 points to just 6 points rest-of-season, with early splits explaining only 4% of future variance. He ties this directly to Atlanta's recent outlier game and to the Taylor conversation, warning against overreacting to any team's early touchdown-distribution profile.

Early offensive efficiency, unlike scoring style, does carry real predictive weight. EPA per play, scoring-drive rate, and touchdowns per game explain about 22% of rest-of-season touchdown variance — modest but meaningful in small samples. By that measure the 49ers, Bills, Cowboys, Lions, Chiefs, and Ravens profile as the best offenses, while the Dolphins, Bucs, Vikings, Chargers, Patriots, and Steelers profile as concerning, a list JJ calls surprising given preseason expectations.

Colston Loveland's Week 4 breakout may be matchup-specific, not a role change. His target share jumped from under 10% to 29% with a shallower route tree, but JJ notes the Bears have used him inconsistently all year and this could reflect game-planning against the Jets rather than a durable shift in deployment. He wants more weeks of evidence before declaring Loveland fixed.

James Cook's receiving role has shrunk back down with Ty Johnson healthy, closing the door on a higher fantasy ceiling. Cook's route share fell from 53% to 32% and his target share from 12.5% to 5.4% once Johnson returned, reversing the early hope he'd become a true dual-threat back. JJ still calls him an RB1 but flags the trend as unfavorable.

Bucky Irving's role is deteriorating on both the ground and through the air, and he's been shut out of goal-line work entirely. He ran a route-only game in Week 4 with zero targets, his rush share dropped to 52%, and Sean Tucker has now taken eight of the Buccaneers' nine goal-line carries over Irving's last ten games played. JJ frames this as a real problem if the target-share erosion continues in a low-scoring offense.

George Pickens' collapse is mostly explainable by touchdown and yards-after-catch regression, not permanent decline. His end-zone target rate, deep-target conversion, and especially his yards-after-catch (down from 5.2 to 1.9 per catch) are all career-worst marks that JJ expects to normalize somewhat, since Pickens has never posted sub-3.0 YAC numbers beyond his rookie year. He doesn't expect a return to 2025 form but does expect improvement from the current floor.

Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense are genuinely worse than a year ago, largely due to the offensive line, but fantasy peripherals for Hurts specifically have improved. EPA per play, EPA per dropback, and pressure rate have all declined for the offense, with running back yards before contact nearly cut in half; yet Hurts is rushing more (excluding sneaks) and completing more intermediate-to-deep throws. JJ sees enough talent to expect some rebound but no quick turnaround given the Barkley and Smith injuries.

RJ Harvey is underrated and has a real path to RB2 production. He leads all backs with three-plus games played in target share (21.9%), and historical comps for similar run/target/route profiles (Kamara's rookie year, Duke Johnson, James White) show roughly half finish as top-24 backs rest of season. JJ notes the ceiling outcomes required a bump in rush share, which could come given J.K. Dobbins' struggles on the ground.

What it means for your roster

• Hold Josh Downs as a streaming-caliber WR3, not a cut candidate — the Week 4 dud was slot-rate noise driven by Keenan Allen's presence, not a talent or role collapse.
• Don't sell high on Jonathan Taylor, but temper touchdown expectations — he's still a top-4 rest-of-season back per JJ, but a 60% team-TD share is historically unprecedented and due to come down.
• Treat any team's early pass/run TD ratio as noise when evaluating streaming QBs/FLEX plays — teams like Atlanta that scored unusually one way are strong regression candidates in the other direction.
• Use the efficiency-based team list for season-long confidence, not scoring splits — lean into Niners/Bills/Cowboys/Lions/Chiefs/Ravens-adjacent pass-catchers; be cautious with Dolphins/Bucs/Vikings/Chargers/Patriots/Steelers skill players beyond this week.
• Don't buy into Colston Loveland as a weekly starter yet — wait for a second high-target game before trusting the role in redraft or best ball lineups.
• Downgrade James Cook's ceiling and Bucky Irving's floor — Cook's receiving work evaporated with Ty Johnson back; Irving is losing goal-line work to Sean Tucker and may need volume-dependent weeks to be startable.
• Hold George Pickens through the slump and consider buying low in trade talks — his terrible YAC and red-zone target rates are unsustainable on his own career baseline, even if he won't match 2025.
• Keep RJ Harvey as a buy or hold in trade/waiver value — his pass-catching role alone supports RB2-caliber odds, and any uptick in rush share (plausible given Dobbins' decline) raises his ceiling further.