Week 4 Sit/Start + Mailbag
Matthew, Michelle, and Mo run through a 'keep it open or close it out' segment on struggling QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs heading into Week 4, then dive into a mailbag covering injury fallout (Baker Mayfield, Devon Achane), dynasty strategy, and waiver pickups before closing with NFL MVP futures picks. The central theme: separate talent/opportunity concerns from bad matchups or small sample noise when deciding who to trust in Week 4 lineups.
This Week 4 sit/start episode from Matthew Berry, Mo Hassan, and Michelle Beadle runs through the "keep it open or close it out" format on a batch of shaky fantasy assets, then pivots to a mailbag dominated by Chargers skepticism and dynasty strategy. The throughline is patience with talent in bad situations versus cutting bait on volume concerns, with the hosts repeatedly splitting on where that line sits.
The arguments
Jaden Reed's IR stint concentrates the Packers' passing game into three players plus Jordan Love. Berry and the crew agree Christian Watson (26% target share), Matthew Golden (23%), and Tucker Kraft (14%) all gain, and Green Bay's inability to run or stop anyone means more pass volume even in negative game scripts. The dissent is entirely about Kraft specifically later in the show, where Mo closes him out over pass-protection concerns forcing him into blocking reps, while Berry keeps him open as a low-end TE1 against Tampa Bay.
Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense are unrosterable right now. Berry closes out Herbert (QB21 but unstartable), citing the worst interior offensive line matchup imaginable against a Seattle defense allowing a league-low 5.0 yards per attempt, plus a schedule that doesn't ease up (Broncos, at Chiefs, bye, at Rams). In the mailbag, both hosts agree Ladd McConkie (WR28) and Omarion Hampton (RB24, touchdown-dependent flex) are worth holding for talent and role, but Herbert himself is the one they'd cut first in a shallow league.
Saquon Barkley's lack of scoring is a touches/efficiency mismatch, not a talent problem. Mo and Berry both keep him open (Berry has him RB16) despite only three weeks of underwhelming output, pointing to 80% of Philadelphia's goal-line rushes and over 5 YPC across two full games. Berry flags positive regression as inevitable given the volume, and both like the Eagles' home spot against a Rams team flying cross-country off a tough loss.
Jadarian Price has lost the Seahawks backfield job to fumbles, not competition for touches. Berry closes him out at RB30, detailing a declining snap share, under 40% playing time, and only three red-zone touches through three games versus nine for Emmanuel Wilson and seven for George Holani. Both hosts agree the talent is obvious on tape, but ball security has erased trust, and Zach Charbonnet's return further buries him.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt isn't getting enough volume in any phase to trust. Mo closes him out, noting 3.0 yards per carry and only 0.7 yards before contact, plus Washington signing Austin Ekeler despite no backfield injuries as a signal of organizational doubt. Berry agrees, ranking him RB32 and actually preferring Rashad White's tape so far, even with a positive-on-paper matchup in London against the Colts.
Jalen Waddle and Carnell Tate are talent-driven buy-ins despite messy current production. Both hosts keep Waddle open (WR29 for Berry) on a 28-34% target/route share and a high-total game (48) against Denver's still-developing offense. Mo closes Tate due to drops and missed connections with Cam Ward, while Berry reluctantly keeps him open at WR36, banking on Tennessee being forced to throw as 11.5-point underdogs against Baltimore.
Roma Dunze is a system casualty under Case Keenum, not a talent issue. Berry closes him out at WR44, explaining Keenum's dink-and-dunk style (under 6.0 average depth of target) favors Kalief Raymond and Luther Burden over Dunze's down-the-field profile. Both hosts explicitly frame this as a this-week-only call, expecting Dunze to become the clear WR1 whenever Caleb Williams returns.
What it means for your roster
- Start/trust Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, and Jordan Love as plays for the next month-plus with Jaden Reed out; Tucker Kraft is more matchup/scheme-dependent (good vs. Tampa Bay's leaky TE defense, but watch his protection role).
- Bench Justin Herbert outright this week (closed out, outside Berry's top 20 QBs); hold Ladd McConkie (WR28) and Hampton (RB24 flex) for talent/role, but Herbert is the one to cut first in shallow leagues per the mailbag.
- Keep starting Saquon Barkley as a low-end RB2/flex, not a true RB1 this week, banking on positive touchdown regression given his 80% goal-line share.
- Cut or bench Jadarian Price and Jacory Croskey-Merritt — both closed out at RB30 and RB32; Price's fumbles and Croskey-Merritt's lack of passing-game role make them droppable in deeper leagues.
- Hold Malik Nabors through a bad-weather dud — both hosts say buy low if possible rather than sell after his lowest-value game of the season.
- Stash/claim Jalen Daniels in two-QB or deep leagues off the Baker Mayfield injury, but bench all other Buccaneers pass-catchers until the passing game proves out under him.
- Prioritize Braylon Allen and Ollie Gordon over Marshawn Lloyd on waivers (Allen RB23, Gordon RB33 vs. Lloyd RB44 per Berry) given Green Bay's committee/pass-script issues.
“He's my running back 30. I'm closing it out.” — Matthew Berry
Players in this episode
↓ Lost for the season with injury; discussed as a dynasty trade chip since he's a young talent in a currently useless situation for contenders.
→ Keeping it open cautiously (RB16) — underwhelming touchdown production despite strong yards-per-carry and 80% of goal-line work; expect positive regression vs. the Rams.
→ Still holding as a touchdown-dependent flex (RB24), but concerned about Keaton Mitchell's rising usage cutting into his role.
↑ Hosts say stay the course or even buy low after a weather-affected dud; he still commands a 29%+ target share and is considered too talented to sell at a down moment.
↑ Still startable at RB14 even with Baker Mayfield out, as Tampa Bay is expected to lean run-heavy under Jalen Daniels.
↓ Closing it out at QB21 due to a brutal matchup at Seattle, poor interior offensive line play, and a non-existent run game.
↑ Hosts are holding onto him (WR28) over other Chargers skill players, citing his talent and target floor even if Herbert struggles.
↑ Keeping it open at WR29 thanks to a 28%+ target share over two weeks and a high-scoring matchup with San Francisco.
↓ Closed out at RB30 — snap share has declined weekly, two fumbles in two games, and only 3 red-zone touches through three weeks.
↑ Matthew's MVP pick at +425, citing a league-leading 133 passer rating and EPA per dropback despite a banged-up supporting cast.
→ Split verdict (Mo closes, Matthew reluctantly opens at WR36) — talented but hurt by drops and poor QB play from Cam Ward; good matchup as a big underdog vs. Baltimore.
→ Split verdict (Matthew opens as low-end TE1, Mo closes) — benefits from Jaden Reed's injury narrowing the target tree, but Green Bay's poor pass protection is a concern.
↓ Closed out at WR44 this week — Case Keenum's dink-and-dunk style doesn't fit his deep-ball profile, but hosts love him long-term once Caleb Williams returns.
↑ Keeping it open at QB11 despite a rough Week 3; hosts like his legs, the Dolphins matchup, and growing rapport with Jordan Addison.
↓ Closed out at RB32 — inefficient run game, low target share, and Washington signing Austin Ekeler signals lack of trust in the committee.
↓ Placed on IR, out at least four weeks, which narrows Green Bay's passing attack and boosts Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, Tucker Kraft, and Jordan Love.
↑ Keeping it open at TE7 — strong target share in all three games and a favorable matchup vs. a Cardinals defense that's weak against tight ends.
↑ Preferred over Rome Odunze in a trade scenario due to a much better short-term target and production floor in Indianapolis's run-heavy offense.
↑ Recommended waiver pickup over Marshawn Lloyd and Ollie Gordon (RB23), expected to remain valuable even after Breece Hall returns due to goal-line work.
→ Undrafted rookie stepping in for injured Baker Mayfield; hosts debate his fantasy value, comparing him to a faster Tyler Huntley due to his legs.