We Plant Our Flags on These 9 Must-Draft Fantasy Football Players! (Ep. 2121)

# PLAY ACTION Brief: FantasyPros — 9 Must-Draft Fantasy Football Players (Ep. 2121)

This episode has Alfredo Brown, Pat Fitzmaurice, and Derek Brown each nominate three players — one from rounds 1-4, one from rounds 5-9, one from round 10 and later — that they are drafting consistently ahead of ADP. The organizing argument is that value at ADP isn't enough; these are players the hosts will actively reach for because the range they land in makes the risk/reward asymmetric in their favor.

The arguments

Zay Flowers is a top-13 receiver being drafted like a WR17, and all three hosts agree. Fitzmaurice notes Flowers hit 1,211 yards and a 29% target share despite Baltimore running the fewest pass attempts in the NFL over three years, and argues even a small uptick in volume plus a new OC (Declan Doyle) potentially boosting his red-zone usage pushes him higher. Derek Brown has him WR13/28th overall, while Alfredo Brown goes furthest, ranking him WR11 and calling himself "irresponsibly high."

Javante Williams is being disrespected relative to his actual 2025 usage, per Derek Brown. He points out Williams was RB8 in points per game through Week 8 before touchdown variance dried up (only four scores in the back half), and dismisses concerns about Jaydon Blue cutting into his role. Fitzmaurice pushes back mildly, staying closer to ADP (RB17) because he prefers receivers in that range and is skeptical of Williams' poor efficiency as a pass-catcher, though he concedes the touchdown upside and O-line stability are real.

DeVonta Smith is this year's JSN-style breakout candidate, according to Alfredo Brown. With A.J. Brown gone, Smith and Dallas Goedert (who scored 11 TDs on an unsustainable pace) should absorb touchdown regression that swings his way. Alfredo also flags new OC Kevin Patullo (referred to as "Sean Mannion" in the transcript, likely a name mix-up) bringing more pre-snap motion to unlock Smith the way Green Bay/LA/Seattle schemes have for their top receivers, projecting a return to his 2022 form (130 targets, WR10 finish).

Jameson Williams' role change after Dan Campbell took over play-calling is sustainable, says Alfredo Brown. From Week 10 on, Williams was WR9 in half-PPR, nearly matching Amon-Ra St. Brown, because Campbell shifted him from a vertical decoy to a crosser who touches the ball near the line. Alfredo expects new OC Drew Petzing to continue that mandate, especially with Detroit's shaky secondary suggesting more shootouts and higher team scoring (Vegas's No. 1 implied points offense).

Christian Watson is dramatically underpriced given his per-route efficiency, argue Derek Brown and Fitzmaurice together. Both note Watson was WR21 in points per game from Week 8 on despite a 68% route share, and with Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doblin gone, that route share should climb toward 75-80%. Fitzmaurice adds that Watson's injury risk is a wash because missed games are easier to replace than a healthy player playing through injury at diminished output.

Josh Downs' career-long usage limitations are about to be removed, per Alfredo Brown. Downs has one of the highest targets-per-route-run rates of any young receiver (in the range of Jackson Smith-Njigba and Drake London) but has played almost no snaps in 12-personnel (33 routes, 12 targets over three years). With Pittman gone and Alec Pierce's health uncertain, Alfredo expects Downs to finally play a full route share. Fitzmaurice agrees and questions why Downs is ranked below Jayden Reed given a nearly identical usage profile.

Late-round quarterbacks Kyler Murray and Tyler Shough offer QB1 upside at replacement cost. Fitzmaurice likes Murray at QB17 given his history of QB1 finishes and his move to Kevin O'Connell's offense with Justin Jefferson; Derek Brown is skeptical of the fit but won't argue against it. Alfredo and Derek both rank Shough as their QB14, citing his Weeks 12-on QB6 pace, elite intermediate-throw charting, added weapons (Jordan Tyson, Travis Etienne), and a repaired offensive line — treating him as a "break glass in emergency" QB2 pairing.

What it means for your roster

• Draft Zay Flowers at the Round 3/4 turn even if he's gone by his typical WR17 slot — all three hosts have him WR13 or higher, with Alfredo willing to take him as early as WR11.
• Target Javante Williams in Round 3 if you want a Round-2-caliber workhorse at a discount; skip him if you'd rather use that pick on a receiver, per Fitzmaurice's preference.
• Grab DeVonta Smith in Round 3 as a touchdown-regression buy-low candidate replacing lost A.J. Brown volume.
• Prioritize Christian Watson over Jayden Reed in the 5th-6th round range; Derek Brown will go as high as Round 4.
• Draft Josh Downs in Round 9 as a WR3 swing with WR2 upside if Pierce sits or is limited early.
• Use Tyler Shough as a streaming/Superflex QB2 target in the 15th-16th round range (QB21 ADP but ranked QB14 by two hosts) rather than reaching for a top-12 quarterback.