7 offenses trending up & down entering Week 3
Matt Harmon and Nate Tice run through an offensive efficiency check-in, spotlighting risers Carolina, New Orleans, Las Vegas, and New York Jets while flagging fallers New England, Tampa Bay, and the Chargers. They close with a five-player Week 3 flex fit check and a Thursday Night Football preview between the Falcons and Packers, including player props.
This midweek episode of Yahoo Fantasy Forecast has Matt Harmon and Nate Tice running an offensive efficiency check-in on seven teams through two weeks, using Harmon's blended "Frankenstein" metric (time of possession, success rate, explosive plays) to separate real improvement from small-sample noise. Their central argument: the Panthers, Saints, Raiders and Jets are genuinely better and worth buying into for fantasy, while the Chargers, Patriots and Bucs have structural problems that go beyond bad luck. They close with a Thursday Night Football breakdown of two zombie-ish offenses, Falcons and Packers.
The arguments
The Panthers' passing game is real and sustainable, built around two legitimate NFL receivers. Tice and Harmon both point to Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker running 90%+ of routes and splitting 27% target shares apiece, with the Panthers leading the NFL in early-down explosive receptions. Harmon argues Coker is already better than several receivers drafted well ahead of him and that both players should be moved up dynasty boards; Tice adds that Bryce Young's willingness to stay aggressive after pressure (rather than checking down) is the biggest change from last year, though both want to see it against better defenses like Philadelphia before fully buying in.
Bucky Irving has locked down the Bucs backfield, but Baker Mayfield is actively sabotaging the passing game. Tice says Irving's 77% touch share makes him a legitimate weekly starter, but both hosts argue Baker is forcing throws into tight windows (to rookie Tez Johnson) while ignoring Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin, who are built for intermediate/underneath work, not contested downfield shots. Harmon's Mike Evans on/off splits (6th vs. 36th in success rate among 37 QBs) back up the eye test that this is a Baker problem, not a scheme problem, though the Bucs defense being historically bad makes any opposing skill player a start.
The Saints passing offense under Kellen Moore is quarterback- and receiver-friendly and should keep producing regardless of the run game. Harmon and Tice agree Tyler Shough is finding Chris Olave (called "unguardable") and Devonte Vele in rhythm-based concepts, with the Saints first in plays per game and no-huddle rate, meaning target volume will stay high even as the run game struggles behind an injured Kelvin Banks. Tice notes Bryce Lance's role as a "sacrificial" decoy (77 routes, 6.5% target rate) is actually clearing space for Olave and Vele underneath.
The Chargers' problems are self-inflicted mistakes, not a broken scheme, and can improve. Tice catalogs penalties (31st), turnover EPA (30th), and drops/fumbles across skill players and blockers as the root cause, not offensive line talent, and both hosts note Omarion Hampton is 12th in early-down rushing success rate despite six fumbles. Harmon flags Ladd McConkie's absence as the larger swing factor, citing a top-7 vs. bottom-2 EPA gap with him on/off the field.
The Jets have gone from unplayable to a legitimate two-receiver offense. Both hosts credit Frank Reich's heavy personnel and play-action usage (up from 30th to 16th in play-action rate) for opening things up, with Garrett Wilson drawing coverage attention that's freed up A.D. Mitchell, who leads the team in first downs per route run. Tice calls the Jets this year's "bad team beater," a group that can attack any defensive weakness.
The Patriots and Falcons are both compromised by personnel gaps that scheme can't fix. Tice says New England's passing offense is scheme-limited and lacks a creative play-caller, with no viable receiver beyond a banged-up Stevenson/Henderson committee until A.J. Brown returns; Harmon counters that Drake May's tape wasn't as bad as the box score against Pittsburgh suggested. On Atlanta, both agree Michael Penix's mobility (post-ACL) limits how much he can exploit Green Bay's aggressive blitz packages, even though Drake London has a strong target-share history with Penix on the field.
What it means for your roster
- Buy/hold Jalen Coker and Tetairoa McMillan in dynasty and season-long leagues — Harmon says Coker specifically is undervalued relative to his current output and route share.
- Start Bucky Irving with confidence as a top-12 back; the Bucs run game is real even while the passing game is chaotic.
- Roster Devonte Vele now if you need receiver depth — he's running 90%+ of routes in a high-volume, no-huddle-heavy Saints offense that both hosts expect to lean pass-heavy going forward.
- Target any player facing the Buccaneers defense — Tice and Harmon both call it a weekly streaming/start-up spot given the tackling and coverage issues.
- Consider adding Kyler Murray off waivers for a Week 3 matchup against Tampa Bay's defense, per Harmon's own roster dilemma.
- Treat A.D. Mitchell as a viable deep-league flex and Denzel Boston as a start-worthy flex against Carolina, per the flex-check segment; prefer Vele over Boston in full PPR formats.
- Fade Patriots skill players outside dynasty stashes on Rhamondre/Henderson — touch-share unpredictability and A.J. Brown's absence make the passing game unstartable for now.
“He's better than Marvin Harrison, and he's better than Luther Burden.” — Matt Harmon
Players in this episode
→ May's tape against Pittsburgh wasn't as bad as perceived, but hosts remain low on him as a fantasy starter until A.J. Brown returns and matchups lighten.
↑ Jeanty (referred to as Ashton Gentry) is getting designed touches including screens and motion usage, seen as a dynamic piece even if run-blocking isn't elite yet.
→ Hampton is fumbling too much but the Chargers are shifting to more gap/pulling schemes suited to his running style; hosts see him settling as a viable RB1-2 range back, not a bust.
↓ Brown's absence (out for weeks) is seen as a major drag on the Patriots passing game, which lacks creativity and big-play juice without him.
↑ London has historically produced strongly with Penix on the field (33.5% target share last season) and is expected to see boom-or-bust outside/out-route production Thursday night.
↑ Olave is called all-pro caliber and nearly unguardable in man coverage, with elite route burst metrics (fastest average speed off the line in the NFL) fueling a big statistical season.
↑ Irving has 77% of the running back touch share and is viewed as a legitimately good, high-floor back even as the passing game struggles around him.
→ Herbert's supporting cast mistakes (drops, penalties, missed assignments) rather than his own play are cited as the main reason the Chargers passing game has looked bad.
→ The Chargers offense is a top-7 unit by EPA/play with McConkie on the field and near the league's worst without him, making his health the swing factor for the whole passing game.
→ Egbuka is playing the exact role hosts wanted (heavy slot/motion usage) and winning on intermediate routes, but isn't getting enough looks over the middle due to Mayfield's decision-making.
↑ McMillan is praised for winning downfield on chunk plays and complementing Coker, with the two combining for over half the team's targets in a big-play-friendly offense.
↑ Wilson remains the clear top target and is drawing extra coverage attention, which is opening things up for Adonai Mitchell in the Jets' improved offense.
→ Henderson flashed one long run and is viewed as talented, but touch distribution with Rhamondre Stevenson makes him fantasy-frustrating week to week.
↑ Watson is trusted for chunk-play upside against a banged-up Falcons secondary missing AJ Terrell, with a prop bet on him topping 75 receiving yards.
↑ Hubbard is called one of the best value picks in fantasy, holding down a rock-solid workhorse role even with Austin Ekeler in the building and Jonathan Brooks on IR.
↓ Hosts blame Mayfield's aimless, tight-window throws and turnover-prone decision-making for Tampa Bay's passing struggles, noting a massive efficiency gap between games with and without Mike Evans.
↑ Shough is praised for aggressive downfield throws and good process (giving receivers a chance even under pressure), driving optimism for the Saints' passing game sustainability.
↑ Schultz is viewed as a viable flex if Nico Collins sits, benefiting from underneath/slot-type targets in an encouraging Texans passing game led by C.J. Stroud.
↑ Johnson is called a weekly starter because Shough favors him as a checkdown/red-zone option in a high-volume offense.
↓ Worthy is viewed as boom-or-bust and overrated relative to Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce in a resurgent Chiefs offense; hosts would rather chase Kelce or even Tyquan Thornton for touchdown equity.
↑ Coker is called a true breakout, running big outside routes with elite burst off the line, 50% of his targets going for first downs, and is argued to already be a top-25 real-life receiver worth moving up dynasty rankings.
↑ Hosts say Young is playing with more confidence and aggression under new play-caller Brad Idzik, offsetting some risk-averse tendencies, though they want to see it against tougher defenses like Philadelphia before fully buying in.
↑ Boston is drawing praise as the Bucs' new No. 1 outside receiver, running elite route speeds and winning on outs, fades, and posts; recommended as a flex start vs. Carolina.
↑ Mitchell is getting heavy target volume (12 in Week 2) and running the highest first-downs-per-route on the team, making him a sneaky deeper-league add, especially vs. Detroit.
↑ Tucker is having explosive games on deep/breaking routes off play action and is viewed as a viable big-play threat as the Raiders offense stabilizes.
↑ Vele is running a high route share (90%+) in a pass-heavy, up-tempo Saints offense and is recommended as a streaming/waiver add given the sheer play volume.
→ Penix is returning from a knee injury with mobility concerns and a short week to prepare, making him a boom-or-bust play against a blitz-heavy Packers defense.