FFT Express - Dave Richard's Do Not Draft Team Based on ADP! Jaxson Dart, Breece Hall, Kyle Pitts, & More! (07/08 Fantasy Football Podcast)

This episode is Dave Richard's "Do Not Draft" team exercise, built strictly off current Fantasy Pros ADP as of August 7th: one quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, and a tight end that Dave argues are being drafted too high relative to their actual outlook. The central argument is that ADP has drifted well ahead of what several of these players' roles, offenses, or target competition actually support, and reaching for them at their current cost is a losing proposition.

The arguments

Jaxson Dart is too expensive at QB9 around the round 7-8 turn. Dave argues Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence are both available later and are safer, better plays even accounting for Dart's rushing upside. He notes the Giants want to run the ball heavily as a team but don't want Dart himself running much, which undercuts the rushing-floor case that made Dart appealing, on top of concussion history and an unproven passing role.

Breece Hall in round three (32nd overall) doesn't match his actual usage outlook. Dave's co-host points out Hall averaged 17-plus touches and 13 PPR points per game last year as a true workhorse under Aaron Glenn, and questions why anyone expects more when the Jets are now committed to a three-way backfield split and the play-calling situation is weak. Dave agrees 13 points per game would be a frustrating return on a third-round pick.

Tyrone Tracy Henderson at 50th overall is the worst ADP on the board. The hosts note he's still splitting time with Rhamondre Stevenson and has had a shaky camp, meaning there's no clear signal for when to trust him in lineups short of a Stevenson injury. Dave calls this pick "way too soon."

Jameson Williams at pick 55 ignores his role behind Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. Dave cites only 4.8 targets per game last season and argues new play-caller John Morton (referred to as "Petsing" in the transcript) has a track record of leaning on tight ends, which should favor LaPorta and St. Brown over Williams. He views this as 10 spots to two rounds too early.

DK Metcalf inside the top 80 overstates his role in Pittsburgh. Dave believes the Steelers' offseason additions — Michael Pittman, young receivers like Roman Wilson, and tight ends Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington — were specifically meant to take pressure off Aaron Rodgers rather than funnel volume to Metcalf. He'd rather draft Parker Washington or even Jordan Tyson later, and says he wouldn't touch Metcalf before round 10.

Kyle Pitts is a trap again at TE around pick 70. The numbers show a split season: over 15 PPR points per game in the five games Drake London missed, under 10 in the 12 games London played, and no other career season averaging double digits. The hosts agree he's still worth drafting and starting if you have him, but note it's a "crime" that his ADP now sits ahead of LaPorta, Trey McBride/Tucker Kraft-tier options, and Harold Fannin Jr.

What it means for your roster

• Avoid Jaxson Dart at his round 7-8 ADP; prioritize Justin Herbert or Trevor Lawrence instead if they're on the board later.
• Don't reach for Breece Hall in round three; the Jets' three-way backfield and weak play-calling cap his ceiling near last year's 13 PPG, a poor return for that draft capital.
• Skip Tyrion Henderson at pick 50 — no clear path to fantasy relevance unless Rhamondre Stevenson gets hurt; not a stash worth that ADP.
• Fade Jameson Williams inside the top 60; expect LaPorta and Amon-Ra St. Brown to absorb the target share in Detroit's new offense.
• Do not draft DK Metcalf before round 10; target Parker Washington or Jordan Tyson as cheaper Steelers-passing-game exposure instead.
• Kyle Pitts is a hold/start-if-you-have-him tight end but not worth his current ~pick 70 price over LaPorta, Tucker Kraft, or Harold Fannin Jr., who are all going behind him.