7 Players to Avoid in Your Drafts with Matthew Freedman
Matthew Berry and Matthew Freedman break down the Hall of Fame game (Carson Beck impressing, Haynes King's fantasy upside if he ever starts) before diving into Freedman's 'Fades' column, debating seven players Freedman is fading at their current ADP including Lamar Jackson, Bo Nix, Jonathan Taylor, Breece Hall, Tee Higgins, Jordan Addison, and Trey McBride. The two frequently disagree, with Berry pushing back on several fades, and the episode closes with a Discord mailbag covering keeper strategy, tight end value, and running back price inflation.
This episode pairs Matthew Barry with Matthew Freedman (FantasyLife.com) to walk through Freedman's "Friedman's Fades" column — eight players he's fading relative to ADP — with Barry pushing back on several picks. The central argument: you can't win your draft in the early rounds, but you can lose it, so identifying overpriced landmines matters as much as finding league-winners, and this year's unusually deep quarterback and wide receiver pools make several "elite" price tags hard to justify.
The arguments
Lamar Jackson is too risky at his QB2 price despite elite upside. Freedman notes Jackson has missed 14 games over five years, posted a career-low 26.8 rushing yards per game last season, turns 29, and now loses both Harbaugh and OC Todd Monken to first-time play-caller Jesse Minter — an unknown offensive environment. Barry counters that he actually expects a big Jackson bounce-back, theorizing Minter's reputedly confrontational coaching style could re-motivate Jackson the way Belichick's harshness reportedly fueled Brady, and that being ranked 69th overall last year may add a chip on his shoulder. Both agree the real driver of the fade is quarterback depth overall — Freedman would buy Jackson only if he slips below Drake May, Burrow, or Daniels in draft order.
Bo Nix's fantasy production has outrun his real NFL quality, and Freedman doesn't trust it to repeat. Freedman argues Nix has been 28th of 33 qualified quarterbacks in efficiency the last two years and is propped up almost entirely by Sean Payton's high-volume scheme plus rushing production; he'd rather wait and grab Malik Willis later for similar rushing upside. Barry pushes back that Nix has been a top-10 fantasy QB two years running and now adds Jalen Waddle, calling him possibly "the best QB15 in fantasy football history." Freedman's projection still has Waddle producing 1,000+ yards as Denver's new No. 1 receiver, regardless of his Nix skepticism.
Jonathan Taylor's first-round price ignores his durability history, and Derrick Henry is the safer bet a half-round later. Freedman likes Taylor as a player but notes he's missed 16 games over five years, while Henry has barely missed any and offers comparable per-touch production behind Lamar Jackson. Barry disagrees strongly, ranking Taylor RB4/8th overall (Freedman has him RB7/15th), arguing Taylor's ceiling as a true workhorse in Shane Steichen's offense — especially with reduced receiver competition after Michael Pittman's departure — outweighs the injury risk, and that comparably risky wide receivers (Nico Collins, Rashee Rice) go in the same range anyway.
Breece Hall's ceiling is capped by a stale Frank Reich offense and a historically bad Jets team. Freedman cites Hall's never having more than five rushing touchdowns in a season and points to Reich's last two offensive stops (2022 Colts, 2023 Panthers) both ranking bottom-three in scoring, arguing great backs on bad teams "submarine" fantasy value. Barry is more optimistic on receiving-game volume (Reich's Colts were 7th in RB receptions) and thinks Geno Smith, per beat reporter Connor Rogers, is playing better than his brutal 2024 tape suggested, which could lift the whole offense's floor.
Tee Higgins has a low ceiling unless Ja'Marr Chase gets hurt, but both hosts still value him as a solid WR2. Freedman shows Higgins' per-game numbers without Chase (90.3 yards) actually exceed Chase's without Higgins (86.4), but Higgins has missed 16 games in five years and never topped 1,100 receiving yards, capping his outcome to roughly 900 yards/9 touchdowns barring a Chase injury. Both hosts rank him around WR16, above market ADP (WR23), and Barry says he's comfortable with Higgins as a No. 2 fantasy receiver even with a ceiling below the true difference-makers going nearby.
Jordan Addison is overpriced relative to easier target-share paths at receivers going in the same range. Freedman argues that at his 11th-round ADP, Addison competes with Justin Jefferson for targets and an uncertain Vikings QB situation, while comparably priced receivers like Josh Downs, Jacoby Meyers, and Wan'Dale Robinson have clearer paths to being their team's clear No. 1. Barry pushes back citing Addison's 35 end-zone targets across 46 games and elite average depth of target, arguing Kyler Murray's downfield accuracy could unlock more than J.J. McCarthy did, though he concedes the depth of the receiver pool around Addison strengthens Freedman's case.
Trey McBride is a great player being drafted like a locked-in TE1, and Freedman would rather have Brock Bowers. Freedman ranks McBride TE2 behind Bowers, worried about Carson Beck potentially taking over at quarterback mid-season if the Cardinals stumble, undermining McBride's target quality late in the year. Barry pushes back hard, noting both hosts actually have McBride ranked identically (22 overall) and calling this the fade he disagrees with most, arguing McBride is essentially locked into a top-three tight end finish barring injury regardless of QB shakiness.
What it means for your roster
- Don't force elite QBs early: with the position unusually deep (Freedman notes Baker Mayfield going as QB21), both hosts favor letting Jackson slide — target him only once he's priced alongside Drake May/Burrow/Daniels rather than as a clear QB2.
- Fade Bo Nix relative to ADP (QB14-15) if you want rushing upside cheaper; Freedman would rather grab Malik Willis later, though Jalen Waddle remains a buy as Denver's likely No. 1 target earner.
- Jonathan Taylor is a legitimate first-round hold if you believe in Steichen's offense, but if you want Taylor-level upside at less cost, Derrick Henry a half-round later is Freedman's stated alternative.
- Treat Breece Hall as a floor-capped RB2, not a league-winner — Reich's offensive track record and Jets uncertainty argue against paying up; his value hinges entirely on receiving volume.
- Tee Higgins is fine as a No. 2 WR if drafted after taking a running back early, per Barry, but don't expect him to break your league unless Chase is hurt.
- In tight end drafts, McBride at TE2 is a value both hosts agree on — take him there rather than reaching for him as the TE1, per Freedman's stated preference to let Bowers go first.
“You can't win your draft in the early rounds, but you sure can lose it.” — Matthew Berry
Players in this episode
↓ Freedman fades him at his round-1 cost due to injury history (missed 16 games in 5 years), preferring Derrick Henry a half-round later; Berry keeps him as a top-8 overall pick given elite red-zone usage.
↑ Freedman prefers him over Jonathan Taylor given durability and comparable per-touch production the last two years.
↑ Recommended as the top pick among a keeper trio (over CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson) due to elite, consistent target share and floor over the past three seasons.
→ Noted to have his own injury issues and target competition from George Pickens, making him less of a safe first-round choice than St. Brown.
→ Uncertainty around Kyler Murray's fit and accuracy creates some doubt, though still considered elite.
↓ Freedman fades him due to new coaching staff uncertainty (Minter/Munkin departure), injury history, and near-zero short-yardage rush attempts; Berry counters he could have a monster year and should be bought if he falls below Drake Maye/Joe Burrow.
→ Freedman ranks him TE2 behind Brock Bowers, fearing he could 'dunk' on the fade but not wanting to be the one to draft the first tight end; also flagged risk if Carson Beck takes over at QB mid-season.
↑ Both hosts rank him as the clear TE1 due to a new QB/system and minimal target competition, though he battled health issues last year.
→ Used as an example of a 'get your guys' pick where reaching a few spots above ADP is fine if a manager strongly believes in the player.
↓ Freedman fades him citing Frank Reich's stale, low-scoring offensive systems and lack of rushing TDs; Berry argues Reich's history of using RBs in the passing game and improved Geno Smith play keep his floor high as a solid RB2.
↓ Freedman doubts he's a legitimately great NFL passer and fades him at QB15 due to transition to new play-caller Davis Webb, though acknowledges rushing floor from Sean Payton's aggressive offense; Berry defends his top-10 upside with Jalen Waddle added.
→ Both hosts rank him similarly (WR16) above market ADP, but agree his ceiling is capped unless Ja'Marr Chase gets injured; expect a solid floor season (~900 yards, 9 TDs) rather than a breakout.
↑ Mentioned as a breakout tight end candidate and 'ride or die' short-list name who could push into the McBride/Bowers tier.
↑ Freedman projects him as Denver's clear No. 1 receiver with 1,000-1,200 yard upside based on his air-yard share after Tyreek Hill's injury.
↑ Freedman is a big fan, saying there's a real scenario where Warren becomes the Colts' most productive fantasy pass-catcher, placing him closer to the upper tier of tight ends than the Laporta/Pitts group.
↑ Cited as having a real shot at being the Jaguars' No. 1 receiver, used as an example of better value than Jordan Addison in a similar ADP range.
→ Considered likely more accurate downfield than J.J. McCarthy, which could boost Jordan Addison, though his fit with new weapons remains uncertain.
↓ Freedman fades him well below ADP (WR48) due to Vikings QB uncertainty and tougher path to team-leading targets compared to receivers going in a similar range; Berry pushes back citing his strong end-zone target history.
→ Berry argues Smith's tape wasn't as bad as perceived last year and could be a competent-enough QB (17th-20th best) to support the Jets offense better than expected.
↑ Looked poised and professional in his Hall of Fame Game debut, raising his real chance of getting significant playing time and boosting his dynasty stock given Jacoby Brissett's shaky standing.
→ Third on Panthers depth chart, but his rushing ability would make him instantly fantasy viable if he ever gets a spot start.