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Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry · Tuesday, October 6

MNF Recap + Week 5 Waiver Wire

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Matthew, Michelle, and Mo recap the Monday Night Football blowout where Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson both shined for the Falcons and Alvin Kamara flashed life for the Saints, then run through the Week 5 waiver wire position by position. They debate depth vs. opportunity plays at RB, WR, TE and QB, plus touch on Lamar Jackson's ankle injury and Joe Mixon's aborted Seahawks signing.

This episode is a post-Monday Night Football reaction and Week 5 waiver wire breakdown, with Matthew Berry, Moe Hassan, and Michelle Beadle digging into the Falcons' backfield explosion, a flurry of running back committee situations across the league, and streaming options at every position. The through-line is that touches and target share matter more than name value right now — several hosts flagged backup or committee backs who are quietly earning real roles.

The arguments

Bijan Robinson has reasserted himself as the clear #1 redraft running back over Jahmyr Gibbs. Berry cited Bijan averaging 153 yards from scrimmage per game and at least 145 yards in three of four contests, arguing that if drafts were redone today, Bijan would go off the board first. Moe, who drafted Bijan first overall, groused that Brian Robinson's touchdown-vulturing cost him an even bigger fantasy day, which Berry and Beadle mocked as greedy given Bijan's ~28-point outing.

Brian Robinson is more than handcuff insurance — he's a real touchdown-dependent flex. Berry made the case using Atlanta's offensive environment: the Falcons lead the NFL in rushing yards per game and have an 81% red-zone rush rate, and Robinson has hit double-digit touches with 50+ rushing yards in three straight games. He compared Robinson's role to what Tyler Algier was last year and what Blake Corum was supposed to be this season — a ~10-touch back with weekly touchdown equity.

Alvin Kamara is a viable low-end RB2/high-end flex, but his monster game may be a sell-high moment. Berry pointed to Kamara earning 12 of 19 Saints running back touches, a 37% target share on his routes, and 75% of the team's red-zone running back touches, which he said makes Kamara his highest-ranked Saints back once his rankings post. Moe floated trading Kamara now given Etienne's eventual return and CJ Donaldson's late-game snaps, but Berry downplayed the sell-high urgency, noting Donaldson's numbers were skewed by garbage time and that no robust trade market is likely to materialize.

The Seahawks' running back room got scrambled mid-show, elevating Emmanuel Wilson's priority. The hosts initially treated the Joe Mixon signing as a low-impact depth move, with Berry preferring Emmanuel Wilson (51% rostered) given his 24 touches, 100% red-zone/goal-line share, and three straight games leading the Seattle backfield in snaps. Breaking news arrived mid-episode that Mixon failed his physical and won't be signing, which Berry said makes Wilson an even bigger priority add.

Will Shipley is a viable streaming flex against Jacksonville, but the matchup and offense are shaky. With Tank Bigsby on IR, Berry framed the pro-case (Shipley's passing-game role, Jacksonville allowing heavy reception volume to backs) against the anti-case (Saquon struggling, Dallas Goedt out, uncertainty over Saquon and Devonta Smith suiting up for the London game). He landed on Shipley as an interesting PPR spot start, not a must-start.

Backfield committees in New Orleans/Denver and Miami are worth monitoring for deeper-league value. Moe and Berry noted Tyler Algier playing 51% of snaps and 60% of passing-down snaps over Jeremiah Love, a committee they expect to normalize but not immediately. Keaton Mitchell was flagged as a priority add (35% rostered) after back-to-back weeks of double-digit touches and expanding targets in Miami, with McDaniel actively deploying him in space.

With DJ Moore banged up, Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir both see real usage spikes, but with different risk profiles. Berry noted Coleman's 35% target share and 13.6 YPR over the DJ-Moore-limited stretch as the upside/stash play, while Shakir's 21%+ target share and 36% red-zone target share make him the safer floor play in a game with a 54.5 point total against the Rams.

What it means for your roster

  • Priority waiver add: Emmanuel Wilson, especially after the Mixon signing collapsed — he's the clear lead Seahawks back for now.
  • Add/stash in all formats: Brian Robinson as a weekly flex with touchdown equity in Atlanta's run-heavy, red-zone-dominant offense.
  • Flex/low-end RB2 play: Alvin Kamara stays startable until Etienne returns, though expect positive touchdown regression to cool off — gauge trade offers but don't force a sale.
  • Speculative bench stashes: Keon Coleman (upside) and Khalil Shakir (floor) both warrant adds while DJ Moore's status is unclear; Keaton Mitchell in deeper leagues.
  • Spot-start option: Will Shipley in PPR formats if you need a flex body against Jacksonville, with clear downside if Saquon/weapons are out.
  • QB streaming targets: Jacoby Brissett (vs. Lions) and Aaron Rodgers (vs. Colts) were the top plug-and-play options; Kirk Cousins is quietly a top-10 fantasy QB worth rostering in deeper leagues.
  • Speculative add: Tyreek Hill is worth a bench stash the moment he signs, with Kansas City floated as the most likely and most fantasy-friendly landing spot.
“Jacoby Brissett understands the assignment.” — Matthew Berry

Players in this episode

Bijan Robinson · RB, ATL

↑ Averaging 153 scrimmage yards/game, scored two TDs Monday night, argued he could be the new consensus #1 overall RB over Jahmyr Gibbs in redraft value.

Lamar Jackson · QB, BAL

↓ Dealing with an ankle injury, uncertain for Week 5 vs. Atlanta; Tyler Huntley would start if he sits.

Jeremiyah Love · RB, ARI

→ Currently losing snaps to Allgeier despite being the more talented back; hosts expect him to reclaim dominant role as he adjusts to NFL pass pro.

Brian Robinson · RB, ATL

↑ Three straight games with 10+ touches and 50+ rushing yards; seen as a touchdown-dependent flex similar to Tyler Allgeier/Blake Corum roles, must be rostered in all leagues.

Tyler Allgeier · RB, ARI

→ Playing 51% of snaps and 60% of passing plays over Jeremiah Love, with a good matchup vs. Lions; hosts expect this to eventually correct back toward Love.

Hunter Henry · TE, NE

↑ Good matchup vs. Raiders who've allowed 5 TDs to TEs (2nd most in NFL); could see more volume if Hunter Renfrow/Rhamondre dynamics shift due to Stevenson injury.

Alvin Kamara · RB, NO

→ Scored two TDs, 19% target share, 37% route target rate, and 75% of Saints RB red-zone touches went to him; viewed as a viable low-end RB2/flex until Etienne returns, though possibly a sell-high given Donaldson's emerging role.

Khalil Shakir · WR, BUF

↑ 21%+ target share in three of four games with 36% red-zone target share; viewed as the safer 'floor' play versus Coleman's upside in a high-scoring matchup vs. Rams.

T.J. Hockenson · TE, MIN

↑ Kyler Murray historically funnels heavy target share to his TEs; Hockenson expected to keep blossoming as Murray's security blanket.

Tyreek Hill · WR

↑ Nearing a free agent signing, likely to Kansas City; hosts recommend adding him proactively given his talent even at reduced capacity, though he remains under league investigation.

Keaton Mitchell · RB, LAC

↑ Season-high snap rate, touches, and target share in Week 4; two straight weeks of double-digit touches; recommended as a waiver add at 65% available despite tough Broncos matchup.

Emanuel Wilson · RB, SEA

↑ Leading Seahawks backfield in snaps three straight weeks with 100% of red zone/goal line work; top RB waiver add, especially with Mixon's signing falling through.

Malik Washington · WR, MIA

↑ Averaging seven targets/game and cleared 40 yards every game; functioning as Miami's de facto WR1 and a solid floor play vs. Cincinnati.

Tre' Harris · WR, LAC

→ Led Chargers in receiving yards in three straight games; with Ladd McConkey out (foot injury), Harris could see expanded role despite a tough Denver matchup.

Aaron Rodgers · QB, PIT

↑ Back-to-back games with 290+ yards and 3 TDs, favorable matchup vs. Colts' bottom-10 pass defense; playing better under Mike McCarthy's increased downfield scheme.

Jacoby Brissett · QB, ARI

↑ Facing the Lions, who've allowed every opposing QB 21+ fantasy points this season; top QB waiver add this week in a projected shootout.

Keon Coleman · WR, BUF

↑ 35% target share and multiple 6-catch games with DJ Moore out; hosts see growing trust from Josh Allen and upside long-term, though DJ Moore remains the top read when healthy.

Joe Mixon · RB

↓ Signed by Seahawks but reportedly failed physical per breaking news; hosts called the signing 'much ado about nothing' and not fantasy relevant even before that news.

Kirk Cousins · QB, LV

↑ Three straight games with 20+ fantasy points, playing like he's fully recovered from Achilles injury; viewed as a top-10 fantasy QB who could hold the job all season.

Mike Gesicki · TE, CIN

↑ Averages 9.3 YPT and ~13 fantasy points/game in games Higgins has missed, scored in three of four games with 50% end-zone target share; strong streamer vs. Dolphins' weak TE defense.

Jameis Winston · QB, NYG

→ Facing Commanders, who allow TD passes at 2nd highest rate; classic boom-or-bust 'Jameis experience' but good matchup-based streamer.

Dante Pettis · WR, SF

↑ Referred to as Dante Myers/Pettis; led Bengals WRs in snaps when Chase and Higgins were out, expected to see heavy usage again this week if both are out again.

Tyler Higbee · TE, LAR

↑ With Tyler Conklin/Terrance Ferguson on IR and Colby Parkinson possibly out again, Higbee is a vital streamer after a 67-yard performance last week.

Will Shipley · RB, PHI

→ Set to lead Eagles backfield this week with Saquon banged up; good receiving role vs. Jaguars who are vulnerable to RB receptions, but offensive line concerns remain.

Tyler Huntley · QB, BAL

→ Would start if Lamar sits, averaged 15.5 fantasy points in two starts last year, but hosts prefer alternatives given tough Falcons run defense.

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