Dynasty Trade Values: Biggest Buy Lows, Sell Highs & 2027 Draft Pick Strategy (Ep. 406)
The crew runs through dynasty buy-lows and sell-highs three weeks into the 2026 season, arguing several struggling players (Jameson Williams, Justin Herbert, Emmitt Johnson, Colston Loveland) are being overreacted to while aging/role-dependent producers (Davante Adams, Javonte Williams, Michael Wilson, Bryce Young) should be sold while their value is hot. They close with general in-season trade strategy, including a case for stockpiling 2028 picks as a cheaper alternative to the loaded, overvalued 2027 class.
Three weeks into the 2026 season, the FantasyPros Dynasty crew runs through a slate of buy-low and sell-high candidates, built around the idea that early-season overreactions create real market inefficiencies. Ryan Warmly, Pat Fitzmaurice, and Scott Bogman each bring names, repeatedly leaning on Fantasy Points' expected-points and efficiency data to separate small-sample noise from legitimate decline. The through-line: volume and situation usually outlast a slow start, but aging veterans and touchdown-dependent role players are much better sold now than held.
The arguments
Jameson Williams is a clear buy-low despite his ugly counting stats. Fitzmaurice points out Williams ranks 18th in expected PPR points per game (13.8) but just 59th in actual output (7.6), driven by drops and a goal-line fumble rather than any drop in target share or depth of target. Bogman agrees the rookie-tier comps around him (Makai Lemon, Jordan Tyson) undersell a 25-year-old with back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons; both acknowledge a notable scoring split with Sam LaPorta on the field but don't think it changes the thesis. Fitz pegs market cost at a 2027 second, maybe stretching toward a first.
Justin Herbert is a buy-low specifically for Superflex rebuilders, with real disagreement on price. Bogman cites Herbert's floor (never finished below QB15 in six years) against a brutal situation — bad O-line, Quinton Johnston and Rondale Gadsden struggling, injured tight ends — and argues now is rock bottom. Fitzmaurice is more skeptical that current holders will actually sell at a discount, suspecting they're still valuing him as a QB1 rather than the QB24 he's been; he'd rather target Brock Purdy or Trevor Lawrence at a similar price point, and floats a near-even Fernando Mendoza-for-Herbert swap if forced to choose.
Emmitt Johnson is a buying opportunity purely because of Kenneth Walker's workload, not because of any flaw in Johnson. Fitzmaurice notes Walker's touch pace (20+ every game) historically precedes injury, and Bogman says he'd target Johnson from any owner who doesn't also hold Walker. Both are stunned he's ranked below Tyrone Tracy Jr. in consensus and expect that gap to close once rankers update with recency filters.
Colston Loveland is a buy-low born from overreaction to raw tight end scoring, not usage. Bogman stresses Loveland is running 85%+ snaps and top-7 in routes among tight ends despite 2.8 PPG, blaming a brutal Week 1 script and narrow misses at the goal line since. Fitzmaurice agrees but sets a real price ceiling — he'd trade Isaiah Likely plus a second for Loveland but won't attach Sam LaPorta, calling that too steep a tax.
Michael Wilson is a sell-high built on busy-not-good usage. Fitzmaurice flags the gap between his route share (2nd in NFL) and target share with his actual efficiency (83rd in yards per route run, 121st in yards per target), arguing Arizona needs him productive only because Marvin Harrison Jr. has become unplayable (6.8% target share). Bogman pushes back that the volume is real and sustainable enough this year to hold if you're contending, but agrees a third-round pick or a running back package is the right ask if selling.
DeVante Adams and Javonte Williams are both "sell if rebuilding, hold if contending" cases, but the hosts split on Williams. Adams is efficient across the board (6th in PPR points) and Bogman says his value won't be higher than right now given his age (turning 34 this season); both hosts would take a second-round pick and run. On Williams, Fitzmaurice is bearish on the underlying profile (3.9 YPC, below-average missed tackles forced) and would take Denzel Boston straight up for him, while Bogman and Warmly are more willing to hold given his clean role in Dallas and lack of competition this year.
Bryce Young's hot start makes him sellable, but the hosts can't agree on fair value. Bogman cites 939 yards and seven touchdowns through three weeks plus a thin starting QB market (Dart, Caleb Williams, Daniels all scuffling) as reason to shop him now in Superflex. Fitzmaurice is unconvinced the sample proves anything and would take Carnell Tate in a rebuild scenario, while Bogman wants a second-round pick attached to any receiver-for-Young offer.
What it means for your roster
- Target Jameson Williams in any trade talks; a 2027 second is fair value for Fitz, with a first in range if the other side is irrationally down on him.
- Shop your Herbert in Superflex now if rebuilding, but expect current holders to resist fair offers; consider proposing a Mendoza (or similar ascending/unproven arm) swap rather than overpaying in picks.
- Buy Emmitt Johnson away from any owner who doesn't also roster Kenneth Walker — both hosts see this as free value given Walker's injury risk.
- Make a run at Colston Loveland now, with Isaiah Likely plus a second as the top comp both hosts would pay; don't attach a top-5 tight end like LaPorta.
- Sell Michael Wilson for a third-round pick or a running back, not a straight pick-for-pick swap — the market for him sits awkwardly between a 2nd (too high) and a 3rd (maybe too low).
- Move DeVante Adams now if rebuilding (his value peaks this season) and at least float Javonte Williams, though expect disagreement on what he's really worth given the empty backfield competition in Dallas.
“I just don't know if people are that down on him.” — Pat Fitzmaurice
Players in this episode
→ Currently playing extremely well but has injury history and is on pace for a career-high workload, raising concern he could break down and open touches for Emmitt Johnson.
↓ Scoring touchdowns in a clear lead role but underlying efficiency metrics are mediocre; Fitz says sell now at age 26 turning 27, though Bogman and Ryan are less convinced given his secure role.
↑ Slow start (QB24) has tanked his value, but his floor historically is QB15 or better; Bogman says buy now in superflex, though Fitz worries stakeholders still won't sell cheap.
↑ Averaging only 2.8 PPG but playing 85%+ snaps with 7th-most routes among TEs; hosts say frustrated managers are selling too cheap and compare him favorably to Isaiah Likely plus a second-round pick.
↑ Hosts say they still believe in his long-term upside despite a rough environment, floated as trade value equal to or above Bryce Young.
↓ Leading in separation score and win rate, producing elite numbers at age 33 (turning 34 this season); hosts say sell now if rebuilding since value won't get higher, but he can help a contender in 2026 especially with Puka Nacua out.
↑ Despite ranking 59th in actual PPR points, he ranks 18th in expected points; hosts see him as a prime buy-low around a 2027 second-round pick.
→ His presence on the field correlates with lower Jameson Williams production (5+ PPG difference), but hosts don't think it fully explains Williams' slow start.
→ Off to a slow start but still viewed as having first-round WR pedigree; floated as a fair piece in a Bryce Young trade.
↓ Target share has collapsed to 6.8% despite solid per-target efficiency; considered 'catastrophically bad' and not worth discussing until a potential sell-low show.
↓ High target/route share but poor efficiency (83rd in yards/route run); hosts think he's a product of Marvin Harrison Jr.'s struggles and could be sold for a third-round pick or a running back.
→ Hosts say they'd still rather have Stroud than Bryce Young long-term despite a down start, citing bad offensive line and receiver injuries as mitigating factors.
→ Floated as a potential piece (with a second-round pick) in a trade for Colston Loveland; hosts prefer Loveland in that scenario.
→ Not yet proven at NFL level but considered close in value to Justin Herbert; floated as a potential near-even trade piece for Herbert.
↓ Currently ranked ahead of Emmitt Johnson in consensus dynasty rankings, which hosts say makes no sense given Johnson's superior outlook.
↑ Blocked by Kenneth Walker but flashing dual-threat ability; hosts argue he's undervalued, ranked behind Tyrone Tracy Jr. in rankings, and worth acquiring for a contender's win-now piece.
↓ Struggling badly in his second season, raising doubts about his long-term outlook and potential for a coaching change or quarterback competition in Tennessee.
↓ Leading the league in passing yards and ranked 4th in points, but hosts debate whether his improvement is sustainable; suggested as a sell-high in superflex for picks or players like Carnell Tate or Travion Henderson.
↑ Fitz says he'd rather have Boston than Michael Wilson or even take him over Javonte Williams in a straight trade.
↑ Had a huge Sunday Night Football performance for the Rams amid Davante Adams' continued strong play; previously almost dropped in a dynasty league.