2026 NFL Week 4 Picks!

This is Ross Tucker's weekly straight-up picks show for Week 4, running through every game on the slate with final score predictions, not a spread-based wagering show (that's the separate Even Money podcast). Beyond the picks, the back half covers breaking wide receiver news — injuries, cuts, and practice squad moves — that reshape a handful of offensive depth charts.

The arguments

Case Keenum is going to keep starting for the Bears even though Ben Johnson is publicly hedging. Tucker says he'd be stunned if Keenum doesn't get the ball again after what he called one of the best individual performances he's seen, and he doesn't buy Johnson's coy answer about the quarterback competition. He's not expecting Keenum to replicate that level of play on a short week, but he still likes Chicago to grind out a low-scoring win over the Jets, 20-19.

Tampa Bay's season is spiraling and it's compounding at receiver. Jalen McMillan is out six to eight weeks with a knee injury, layered on top of Baker Mayfield's absence, with undrafted rookie Jalen Daniels now making his first career start. Tucker explicitly says this doesn't look like a recipe for success and frames the Bucs, alongside the Texans and Chargers, as a team at real risk of a lost season.

Baltimore's offensive line is in crisis at center heading into a tough Titans front. Tucker notes the Ravens are down to essentially their fourth center option, working out Vega Ioni (who has reportedly never played the position) and Graham Glasgow, right as they face Jeffrey Simmons and Tennessee's interior defensive line. He still picks Baltimore to win, 27-17, but flags this as a genuinely bad spot for an offense to be navigating.

Detroit's defense is bad enough that Carolina is live as a real underdog upset on Sunday Night Football. Tucker is picking an underdog here — Panthers at +3.5 — arguing Bryce Young and Carolina's offense can light up a struggling Lions defense even while conceding Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Amon-Ra St. Brown will also produce. He calls for a 31-30 shootout with Carolina winning outright.

The Chargers' offense is in freefall, independent of matchup. Discussing Seahawks-Chargers, Tucker says Los Angeles is "really struggling" offensively and doesn't see that changing against a consistent Seattle team, projecting a lopsided 23-16 Seahawks win that would drop the Chargers to 0-4.

Minnesota should roll to 4-0 against a thin Miami roster. Tucker is confident in the Vikings reaching 4-0, projecting a 19-10 final and saying he doesn't expect the Dolphins to score much, treating this as one of the more one-sided outcomes on the slate.

Giants released Odell Beckham Jr. and promoted Braxton Berrios from the practice squad. The hosts note the team is calling the split mutual, but Tucker is skeptical given reports he's not even expected to land on New York's own practice squad, suggesting this is more of a release than an amicable parting.

What it means for your roster

• Bench or heavily discount Bucs pass-catchers for at least six to eight weeks — Mayfield out, McMillan out, and an undrafted rookie QB making his first start is a bad offensive environment across the board.
• Keep starting Case Keenum-led Bears passing-game pieces with some confidence; Tucker expects him to remain the starter near-term even on a short week, though he's bracing for regression from the ceiling game.
• Fade Ravens offensive line/rushing floor this week — a fourth-string center situation against Jeffrey Simmons and the Titans' front is a legitimate week-to-week risk flag, not just noise.
• Consider Panthers passing-game pieces (Bryce Young and his catchers) as streaming/DFS options against a Lions defense the hosts explicitly call "really struggling," in a game they project at 31-30.
• Sit Chargers offensive skill players this week; the hosts describe the unit as struggling badly with no matchup-based reason for optimism against Seattle.
• Odell Beckham Jr. is not a rosterable add right now — he's unsigned, reportedly not even staying on the Giants' practice squad, while Braxton Berrios becomes the direct beneficiary of added Giants receiver snaps.