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Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry · Tuesday, September 29

MNF Recap + Week 4 Waiver Wire

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The hosts recap Case Keenum's surprising Monday Night Football performance for the Bears and what it means for Chicago's passing-game usage, then run through the top waiver-wire targets at RB, WR, TE, QB and DST for Week 4 amid a wave of running back injuries (Achane, Hall, Etienne). They close with early betting lines for the week.

This episode covers the Monday night Bears-Eagles game and pivots into a full Week 4 waiver-wire breakdown across every position, driven heavily by the rash of running back injuries around the league. The central argument: Case Keenum's performance validates staying bullish on Chicago's passing-game pieces, but a full running back landscape reshuffle (Achane, Hall, Etienne all hurt) is the week's biggest actionable story.

The arguments

Case Keenum's game changes nothing about trusting Ben Johnson's system. Berry and Beitel agree that Keenum's 11-of-11 start with two touchdowns against Vic Fangio's defense shows the offense is scheme-driven, not Caleb Williams-driven, and that whoever plays quarterback for Ben Johnson will produce. They note the shift to a quick-game passing style (nearly 30% more short throws) fits Keenum's limited arm and mobility better than Caleb's downfield style.

Kalief Raymond has quietly become a real target earner, and that's bad news for Chicago's other pass catchers. Beitel points out Raymond has had at least a 16% target share in all three games and is thriving in the quick-game, zone-beating role he learned under Ben Johnson in Detroit. Both hosts warn this cuts into volume for Luther Burden, Rome Odunze, and especially Colston Loveland, at least until Caleb Williams returns.

Colston Loveland is now a touchdown-dependent TE2, not a must-start. Berry, who had Loveland as a "ride or die" pick, admits it's been his worst call of the season — sub-12% target share through three games and just nine targets on 89 routes. He still sees positive trend lines (targets, catches, yards all inching up) and likes the Jets matchup, but is ranking him 12-16 among tight ends rather than a start.

The running back landscape has been upended by injuries, and Braylon Allen is the top priority add. With Breece Hall (quad) and Isaiah Pacheco-adjacent... actually Devin/Devon Achane out for the year and Hall week-to-week, Berry ranks Braylon Allen above Ollie Gordon because Allen got 100% of Jets backfield snaps and faces a Bears run defense allowing the fourth-most yards per carry. Mo Hassan agrees but flags Allen's lack of passing-game work as a limiting factor.

Ollie Gordon is a touchdown-dependent flex, not a bell-cow, because Miami's offense is bad. Both hosts like that Gordon got 100% of Miami's backfield touches after Achane's injury, but note he averaged under three yards per touch and faces a Vikings defense allowing just 3.1 yards per carry to backs. Berry pushes back hard on "spend all your FAAB" hype, calling him strictly a touchdown-dependent flex.

Alvin Kamara remains the better PPR play in New Orleans over Kendre Miller despite a real committee. With Travis Etienne out on a hamstring injury, Kamara got 50% of snaps to Miller's 30% and Donaldson's 23%, but Berry and Beitel emphasize Kamara's 33% target share on routes makes him the clear PPR option, with the gap closing in non-PPR formats.

Kenyon Sadiq is the single best add on the board and a long-term start, not a streamer. Berry calls this rookie tight end's red-zone role (Gino's trust, size at the catch point) a real breakout, not a fluke, noting he's still available in over 80% of leagues and separating him with "a big line" above every other tight end option this week.

What it means for your roster

  • Priority waiver claim: Kenyon Sadiq (Jets TE) — spend real FAAB now; both hosts consider this a season-long starter, not a one-week streamer.
  • RB add #1: Braylon Allen over Ollie Gordon for the Chicago matchup and clearer path to volume; Gordon is flex-only and touchdown-dependent.
  • PPR lineup decision: Start Kamara over Kendre Miller in PPR formats; it's closer to a coin flip in standard/half-PPR.
  • Bench watch: Downgrade Colston Loveland to TE2 streaming range; don't trade for him expecting a breakout while Caleb Williams is out and Kalief Raymond keeps siphoning targets.
  • WR waiver order: Keenan Allen (Colts, elite matchup vs. Washington) first, then Jacoby Meyers (Jaguars shootout upside vs. Bengals), then Wan'Dale Robinson (Titans, rising target share).
  • Streaming QB1 for Week 4: Sam Darnold against the Chargers' bottom-12 pass defense is the top add, with Marcus Mariota (Colts matchup, playing better than expected) as a strong backup option while Jayden Daniels remains out.
“Kalief Raymond's going to be a thing.” — Matthew Berry

Players in this episode

De'Von Achane · RB, MIA

↓ Out for the season with a torn ACL, opening the Dolphins backfield to Ollie Gordon and Jalen Wright.

Omarion Hampton · RB, LAC

↓ A second-round fantasy pick who's underperforming, averaging under 4 yards per carry and losing snaps to Keaton Mitchell.

Breece Hall · RB, NYJ

↓ Suffered a quad injury expected to keep him out a couple of weeks, handing the Jets backfield to Braylon Allen.

Travis Etienne · RB, NO

↓ Dealing with a hamstring injury that will sideline him for a stretch, pushing the Saints into a Kamara/Miller/Donaldson committee.

Colston Loveland · TE, CHI

→ Trending upward in targets/receptions/yards but still has a sub-12% target share and is being labeled a touchdown-dependent TE2 in the 12-16 range.

Jakobi Meyers · WR, JAX

↑ Viable No. 2 option behind Parker Washington in a high-volume Jaguars passing offense, with the Bengals-Jaguars game carrying the week's highest total (51.5).

Sam Darnold · QB, SEA

↑ Ranks third among QBs in yards per attempt since last season and has a great Week 4 matchup against a bottom-12 Chargers pass defense; viewed as a top streaming option.

Wan'Dale Robinson · WR, TEN

↑ Posted a season-high 31% target share and is trending up as Cam Ward gets more comfortable, ranked as the No. 3 WR waiver add this week.

Kenyon Sadiq · TE, NYJ

↑ Broke out with strong usage and a red-zone TD target, described as a can't-miss add available in over 80% of leagues, though his breakout came with AD (Garrett Wilson?) out.

Alvin Kamara · RB, NO

↑ Took 50% of snaps and a double-digit target share after Etienne's injury; preferred over Kendre Miller in PPR due to pass-catching role.

Braelon Allen · RB, NYJ

↑ Took 100% of the RB snaps after Breece Hall's quad injury and is the top RB waiver add this week with a favorable matchup against Chicago's leaky run defense.

Keaton Mitchell · RB, LAC

↑ Saw a 36% snap rate, is averaging over 5 yards per carry, and is favored by Mike McDaniel's scheme; role could keep increasing over Omarion Hampton.

Malik Washington · WR, MIA

→ Has a 27% target share and ranks top-30 in utilization score, but faces a brutal matchup against Minnesota's elite pass defense.

Kendre Miller · RB, NO

→ Part of the Saints' backfield committee, likely to get more goal-line work but less involved in the passing game than Kamara.

Keenan Allen · WR, IND

↑ Posted a season-high 26% target share with Alec Pierce out, ranks top-20 in utilization score, and has a great Week 4 matchup against a Commanders defense allowing the most fantasy points to WRs.

Deshaun Watson · QB, CLE

↑ Has back-to-back games with at least 19 fantasy points and currently sits as QB11 on the season, exceeding preseason expectations.

Ollie Gordon · RB, MIA

→ Got 100% of Dolphins RB touches after Devon Achane's season-ending ACL tear but averaged under 3 yards per touch in a bad offense; projected as a touchdown-dependent flex.

Marcus Mariota · QB, WAS

↑ Playing better statistically than Jayden Daniels while filling in, with a favorable matchup against a bottom-three Colts pass defense.

Case Keenum · QB, CHI

↑ Filled in for Caleb Williams and thrived in Ben Johnson's quick-game scheme, throwing 11-of-11 with two TDs and outscoring Drake Maye and Saquon Barkley in certain stats.

Kalif Raymond · WR, CHI

↑ Emerging as a key slot option in Keenum's quick-passing scheme with a 23% target share and over 10 yards per target, drawing targets away from Burden, Odunze and Loveland.

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