2026 NFL Week 4 Bets
Ross Tucker and Steve Fezzik recap their Week 3 NFL betting results (Ross up 16.6 units, Steve up 5.2) before breaking down Week 4 spreads, totals, and teaser legs across the full slate. Central argument: several 'good' or undefeated teams (Washington, Rams, Chiefs) are being overvalued by the market due to recent results or record, while battered/traveling teams like Dallas and Denver still offer value.
This episode is a straight sports-betting recap and preview from Ross Tucker and Steve Fezik's Even Money podcast, not a fantasy roster show — the hosts grade last week's teaser and side bets, then break down lines for every Week 4 NFL game. The through-line is that public perception is moving too fast on both directions after Week 3, and several popular teams (Washington, Green Bay, the Rams, the Chiefs) are getting mispriced because of one good or bad performance.
The arguments
Washington's Week 3 win masks real weakness. Fezik points out Washington got outgained by roughly 200 yards against Seattle and only won because of a pick-six, and he explicitly passes on backing them again. Tucker disagrees, arguing the win itself changes the team's momentum and takes Washington plus 3.5 for one unit against the Colts.
The Titans are being undervalued after two competitive losses. Both hosts back Tennessee getting 11.5 against Baltimore, with Tucker going up to two units specifically because the Ravens are walking into a letdown spot after a Cowboys game they were "gifted" and a trip back from Rio. Fezik is more hesitant, initially wanting to wimp out at one unit, but ultimately matches Tucker's confidence.
New England and Jacksonville are cheap teaser legs despite ugly tape. Fezik downgrades New England hard after watching Josh Allen get banged up and calls the Patriots-Jaguars matchups "horrible," yet still leans Patriots plus 7 and both hosts tease Jacksonville up to 8.5 against Cincinnati, reasoning that bad-looking teams often bounce back the way Pittsburgh did the prior week.
Backup quarterback situations create total-market inefficiencies. With Baker Mayfield out (dislocated thumb), Fezik takes Tampa Bay's total under 39.5, arguing Green Bay's offense is a mess too. Tucker leans the other way toward Tampa plus 4.5, expressing more confidence in undrafted rookie free agent Jalen Daniels than Fezik does. Similarly, both hosts admit uncertainty about Chicago's own quarterback situation (Keenum vs. Badgett) before settling on a small Jets lean.
The Raiders are live dogs against an unproven 3-0 Chiefs team. Both hosts independently land on Las Vegas plus 4.5, with Fezik adding the over at 47.5, framing this as a spot where Kansas City's record may be outpacing its actual play.
Home dogs and prime-time division games are getting mispriced. Carolina plus 3.5 against Detroit on Sunday night is a shared two-unit best bet, with both hosts citing Detroit's road/grass struggles and Carolina's rare marquee spot. Atlanta plus 3 at New Orleans is framed similarly as a lean, with Tucker citing Atlanta's extra rest off a Thursday game and newfound offensive rhythm behind Penix.
Fezik flags a scheduling/travel trend that's quietly beating unders. Multiple international-trip teams (Rams, Cowboys, Broncos returning from London/Brazil-adjacent trips) are cited as fatigue risks, but the hosts split on how to apply it — Fezik uses it to fade the Rams in Philly, while Tucker uses similar logic to still back Dallas in a teaser.
What it means for your roster
- Treat Washington's 3-0 start skeptically for lineup-confidence purposes — Fezik's outgained-by-200-yards note suggests game script volatility, not a stable positive environment for their skill players.
- Green Bay's passing-game outlook is muddled: both hosts see a "mess" offensively, which is a caution flag on Love-dependent Packers pieces this week regardless of the Tampa backup-QB circumstance.
- Tampa Bay's offense with Jalen Daniels under center is genuinely uncertain — Fezik expects little scoring, Tucker expects more competence than public perception; hold off on trusting Bucs skill-position players until confirmed.
- Kansas City's competence gap (3-0 record vs. Fezik's live-dog framing of Las Vegas) suggests some regression risk for Chiefs pass-catchers against a Raiders defense both hosts view as underrated.
- Detroit's defense drew explicit criticism as "really struggling," a marginal positive signal for opposing offenses (Carolina) beyond just game-script betting value.
- Atlanta was described as having found rhythm behind Penix with extra rest — a note worth flagging for anyone monitoring Falcons skill-position trends into a divisional spot.
“Wouldn't it be something if they won this game 4-0 and beat the Chiefs?” — Ross Tucker
Players in this episode
↓ Hosts note Allen 'looks like he's getting banged up,' leading them to downgrade New England's opponent and consider the Patriots as a live underdog.
↓ Ruled out for Buccaneers-Packers with a dislocated thumb, forcing backup Jalen Daniels into the lineup.
↑ Hosts expect Young to 'light up' a struggling Lions defense in a big Sunday night home spot for Carolina.
→ Went 31-of-37 for 327 yards against Detroit but the Jets still lost, illustrating how good quarterback play didn't translate to a cover.
↑ Praised as finally giving Atlanta a real quarterback, with momentum after a big win over Green Bay heading into a division showdown vs. New Orleans.
↓ Expected to start again for the Bears on a short week; hosts doubt he can play well again after a strong prior outing.
→ Undrafted rookie free agent expected to start for Tampa Bay in Baker Mayfield's absence; one host thinks he'll play 'pretty well' while the other expects the offense to struggle.