Becoming a Best Ball Bro: A Different Approach in August?

This episode of Becoming a Best Ball Bro finds JJ Zachary and Rich Ryan working through their evolving August draft process before bringing on guest Sam Sherman, a multi-platform best ball winner. The central argument across both segments: closing line value and camp hype are frequently overweighted signals in best ball, and hosts push listeners to separate genuinely predictive information (injury reports, first-team reps) from noise (beat-reporter hype, algorithmic X feeds).

The arguments

CLV is a real but overrated concept in best ball, and shouldn't drive fades. JJ argues that unlike a single-outcome betting line, a best ball roster spreads risk across 20 players, so getting a great price on one player (like last year's Ja'Cory Crosskey-Merritt in rounds 18-20) means little if that player doesn't actually produce. Rich extends this by comparing it to sports betting closing lines, where the bet still has to hit — CLV alone doesn't feed a family. Sam Sherman echoes this later, saying he doesn't chase Malik Nabors up the board just because he missed the round-four price, and instead just updates rankings based on new information without worrying about theoretical playoff-pool disadvantages.

Several skill-position risers are still worth drafting despite climbing ADP. JJ says Stefan Diggs, now going around a round earlier after landing in Washington, remains undervalued relative to Michael Pittman and Chris Godwin-tier receivers. He's similarly bullish on Parker Washington in Jacksonville, calling his mid-fifth-round price appropriate given an 80%+ route share last year and a strongly positive Zap-model grade the hosts previously underrated. Marshawn Lloyd is framed as a "CLV doesn't matter" case — his price jumped from round 19-20 to round 15, but JJ says that's fine because it reflects real, positive information (health, LaFleur's offense, Josh Jacobs uncertainty).

Not all camp hype deserves a bump — Denzel Boston and Cortland Sutton get pushback. Rich flags reaches on Denzel Boston over fellow rookie Casey Concepcion as a process mistake; the Zap model has Concepcion in the same tier as Makai Lemon, well above Boston, and hosts attribute Boston's hype to beating modest camp expectations rather than being the better prospect. JJ separately calls Cortland Sutton one of the most overrated attachment points in fantasy, noting his lack of a top-20 WR season and now increased target competition from Pat Bryant and Jaylen Waddle.

Injury news is reshaping value at wideout and tight end, and hosts are buying some discounts, not others. Makai Lemon's lingering injury and reports of a delayed integration into Philadelphia's offense have JJ staying light on him (~5% exposure) while increasing shares of Dontavian Wicks, now a top exposure piece around rounds 15-17. Kenyon Sadiq's hernia-related slide to round 17 doesn't scare JJ off, who compares Jets and Jets-CB Deanzo Pons' injury handling as deliberately managed, non-urgent timelines rather than red flags — unlike Alec Pierce's repeatedly missed return dates. Conversely, Arinda Gadsden's crowded Browns tight end room (Njoku, Kolar) has JJ fading him relative to price, preferring Terrance Ferguson at a discount instead.

Sam Sherman is shifting his August strategy toward late rookies and late-round backs. He's now taking rookies like Jacoby Lane and Cyrus Allen over "boring vet" zero-upside players in the late rounds, and is more willing to wait on running back thanks to newly clarified backfield situations (Marshawn Lloyd, Jaden Blue), freeing up earlier picks for receivers and tight ends.

Sherman fades Josh Allen and Rasheed Rice at their current prices, while staying in on Brock Bowers and a Packers stack. He calls Allen mildly overdrafted at pick 28 given the gap to Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels, though he concedes Allen's weekly floor still often justifies the cost. He's fully in on Bowers given Las Vegas's thin receiver room. His lone top-30 WR fade is Rasheed Rice, whom he sees as scheme-dependent PPR production vulnerable to Kansas City diversifying with Kenneth Walker and Xavier Worthy, plus a real-world contract dispute he views as a fragility signal. He's overweighting Green Bay's passing game (Reed, Golden, Watson) given consolidated routes after Dobbs/Heath/Wicks departures.

What it means for your roster

• Draft Stefan Diggs and Parker Washington at current ADP (Diggs ~round 7-8 tier, Washington mid-round 5) — both hosts view them as legitimately undervalued, not just hype.
• Take Marshawn Lloyd around round 15 as a late-round RB2/3 piece; the price increase reflects real positive signal, not just market overcorrection.
• Prefer Casey Concepcion over Denzel Boston if forced to choose; don't chase Boston past round 13-14 just because he's "looking good in shorts."
• Fade Cortland Sutton and stay cautious on Arinda Gadsden; if you want Cleveland tight end exposure, target Terrance Ferguson instead at a discount.
• Shift Makai Lemon exposure toward Dontavian Wicks (rounds 15-17) given Lemon's injury and reported slow integration.
• Consider late-round flyers on Kenyon Sadiq (~round 17) given Jets' deliberate, non-alarming injury management, but treat Sadiq as a three-tight-end-build piece rather than a lock starter.
• Fade Rasheed Rice relative to ADP and prefer Nico Collins, Malik Nabors, or DK Metcalf-tier receivers if given the choice at similar cost; treat Josh Allen as slightly overpriced at pick 28 relative to Lamar Jackson/Jayden Daniels.