1132: Mailbag - Malik Nabers' Outlook, Guillotine Bidding, and More

This mailbag episode from JJ Zacharise tackles five listener questions, but the throughline is about resisting knee-jerk reactions to small samples — whether that's panicking on Malik Nabors after one bad game, giving up on rookies after slow starts, or overspending in guillotine leagues based on early-season vibes rather than probability.

The arguments

Malik Nabors is a legitimate buy-low despite the Jameis Winston downgrade. JJ argues the week two performance shouldn't be weighted heavily given Nabors played through a shoulder injury he had to pop back into place, faced a good Rams defense on the road in a must-win game for LA, and had Winston coming in cold off the bench. He backs this with data showing Winston ranks first among quarterbacks with more than one start since 2024 in yards per start (almost 290), ahead of Jared Goff, and notes Nabors has posted a yards-per-route-run rate above 2.0 with a 30%+ target share regardless of whether Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, Tommy DeVito, or Russell Wilson was throwing him the ball. The caveat is health — if the injury lingers or leads to a shutdown, none of this matters.

Several under-the-radar players deserve more attention as buy-lows or second-half breakouts. JJ names rookies Makai Lemon (route share and aDOT trending up), Jeremy Bernard (74% route share, 22% target share with Michael Pittman out, tough play style despite one ugly drop-turned-interception), and Carnell Tate (83% route share, 29% target share, underperforming expected points by two per game). He also refuses to bail on Luther Burden despite two bad games, pointing to a 21%+ target share and nearly double the expected fantasy points of Rome Odunze, and flags Michael Wilson as a target-share beneficiary if Trey McBride's unsustainable efficiency regresses. At running back, he prefers Jaylen Warren over Rico Dowdle based on adjusted yards after contact and route share, and likes Bhayshul Tuten's early efficiency marks (top-10 in yards after contact, top-6 in 10+ yard run rate) as reasons Jacksonville should feed him more work.

Drake May warrants some concern but not panic. JJ notes May hasn't posted a positive EPA per dropback since the 2024 wildcard round, but attributes much of this to a brutal slate of matchups (Houston, Denver, Seattle twice, Pittsburgh). He points to May's rushing volume (four scrambles per game, third-most in the league, 30+ rushing yards per game) as a stabilizing floor, plus an easier upcoming schedule and the eventual return of AJ Brown as reasons to hold rather than chase Jared Goff or Mac Jones on waivers — though of the alternatives, JJ ranks Goff highest rest-of-season.

Guillotine league FAB bidding advice is fundamentally roster-dependent and can't be generalized. JJ rejects blanket percentage rules, arguing that league size, scoring, bench size, and — critically — your own roster strength should dictate spending far more than in standard season-long leagues. His core logic: in guillotine formats, a new potential RB1/WR1 becomes available essentially every week, unlike season-long leagues where such opportunities are rare, so a good roster shouldn't overspend early just because a shiny name like Ja'Marr Chase hits the wire. He frames early weeks as high-survival-odds (94.4% advancement in week one of an 18-team league), meaning the priority should be quietly accumulating value with mid-tier, low-competition targets (his example: Rashod Bateman) rather than blowing 30-60% of budget on a single early auction, saving aggressive bidding for when the league thins out.

Week one boom performances are far less predictive than week one duds. Responding to a listener's stickiness question, JJ says he tested whether top-40 week-one performers were more predictive than average and found no meaningful edge — R-squared was essentially null except a slight signal at quarterback. His explanation: bad games reveal a real lack of volume, but good games can come from a single fluky long touchdown just as easily as from real usage, so duds are diagnostic while booms are noisy and shouldn't be over-trusted as proof of a role change.

What it means for your roster

• Buy Malik Nabors now if you can get him at a discount — but monitor the shoulder injury status closely before pulling the trigger, since the case collapses if he's shut down.
• Stash Jeremy Bernard and Makai Lemon as speculative adds in deeper or dynasty-relevant leagues; don't cut Carnell Tate based on target-share-adjusted underperformance.
• Hold Luther Burden through the Caleb Williams injury window rather than dropping him — his target share and expected points still justify a roster spot.
• Prioritize Jaylen Warren over Rico Dowdle in trade or waiver value discussions, and get eyes on Bhayshul Tuten as a buy-low/stash if Jacksonville's usage catches up to his efficiency.
• Don't panic-drop Drake May for Jared Goff or Mac Jones — hold given the softening schedule and AJ Brown's eventual return, though Goff remains the top streaming option among the names mentioned if you do need a fill-in.
• In guillotine leagues, save FAB for mid-tier targets early and reserve big bids for when the field thins — don't overspend on a hyped name like Chase-tier talent unless your roster genuinely needs it, since survival odds are already high in the first few weeks.