1129: 15 Transactions for Week 3

This episode of the Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast runs through 15 waiver-wire and buy/sell transactions for Week 3, built almost entirely on usage data (snap share, route share, target share) rather than box-score production. The host's central argument throughout is that early-season fantasy managers overreact to results and underreact to opportunity, and several of this week's calls are explicitly bets against market sentiment.

The arguments

Jonah Coleman is a legitimate street-free-agent target if Denver's backfield injuries persist. With J.K. Dobbins (hamstring) and RJ Harvey (hamstring) both banged up, Coleman played 83% of snaps and handled 80% of Denver's rushes with a 50% success rate. The host notes Coleman graded out well in his prospect model (72nd/49th/88th percentile production markers, 89th percentile in avoided tackles per attempt) and was a preseason target, reinforcing that the opportunity is landing on a player he already believed in.

Drake London's outlook hinges on Michael Penix's return, and the data strongly supports a buy. The host cites a sharp split: with Penix under center since 2024, London has posted .63 PPR points per route run, 2.99 yards per route run, and a 33.6% target rate; without him those numbers fall roughly 30% across the board. There's acknowledged risk in Penix shaking off rust, but the host frames London as a high-upside buy given the size of the historical gap.

Denzel Boston deserves a roster spot in Cleveland despite being viewed as the lesser prospect than Casey Concepcion. Boston is tied with Concepcion in targets but earning far more valuable looks (16.0 average target depth) and outproducing expectation. The host argues Cleveland's likely negative game scripts plus a better-than-expected Deshaun Watson (16th in fantasy points per dropback, top-20 EPA per dropback) should sustain passing volume that benefits Boston.

Josh Downs' expanded role after Alec Pierce's injury could reset his ceiling, and the market may still undervalue him because of his slot-only reputation. After Pierce left Sunday night, Downs ran 83% of routes with 42% coming from the perimeter, and posted a 36% target share. The host stresses Downs already owns a 92nd-percentile target-per-route-run rate historically, so an expanded perimeter role — if it holds — represents a real ceiling change, not just a one-game spike.

In the Eagles backfield, Tank Bigsby is the priority handcuff over Will Shipley, though both have standalone value. Bigsby handled the higher rush share (41% to Shipley's 22%) and got the goal-line work, while Shipley's edge came via routes (57% to 17%). The host expects Philadelphia to lean run-heavy without Barkley, favoring Bigsby, but calls Shipley a legitimate value add given his receiving role.

Amari/Marion Hampton is a sell despite a strong Week 2 workload, because the Chargers' surrounding context is deteriorating fast. The host flags the offense's dismal EPA per play without Ladd McConkie (better than only Atlanta), poor interior offensive line run-blocking, and shaky Justin Herbert play. Hampton's sub-30% route share and history of losing snaps in negative game scripts (down to 50% trailing by 7+, benched trailing by double digits) are dangerous given an upcoming gauntlet of Bills-Seahawks-Broncos-Chiefs-Rams-Texans-Ravens.

Devon Achane is a buy-low despite disappointing points, because his usage this year is actually better than last year's 20-point-per-game pace. Snap share, rush share, and route share are all up or flat year-over-year, and the model's expected points sit at 17/game. The host cites a historical cohort: 17 running backs since 2016 hit Achane's snap/route thresholds for a full season, and 16 of them finished above 19 PPR points per game.

What it means for your roster

• Add Jonah Coleman immediately if you have Broncos exposure or a shallow RB bench — treat him as a must-roster handcuff/starter candidate while Dobbins and Harvey are hurt.
• Buy or add Drake London if his owner is frustrated; the host frames this as a real buy-low with acknowledged risk, not a guaranteed fix.
• Prioritize Denzel Boston pickups in leagues where he's still available (nearly 70% of Yahoo leagues) — usage is outpacing his draft-day prospect grade.
• Speculatively add Josh Downs even amid Week 3 hype, since the host believes the market undervalues a sustained perimeter role.
• Handcuff Bigsby first, Shipley second in Eagles backfield shares — don't overpay in FAAB for Shipley given the likely run-first game plan.
• Sell/trade Amari and Hampton now while his stock is high off a 23-carry, top-10 expected-points week — the Chargers' brutal upcoming schedule and negative-script tendencies make this a limited window.
• Buy low on Devon Achane rather than paying a premium; usage supports a much higher ceiling than his current 11.5 PPG output suggests.