Steve's 2026 NFL Preseason Betting Commandments

This episode of the Even Money Podcast has Ross Tucker and professional bettor Steve Fezik laying out Fezik's rules for betting NFL preseason football, using the chaotic Hall of Fame Game between Arizona and Carolina as a case study. The core argument is that preseason is genuinely beatable with the right framework — home field, coaching tendencies, backup quarterback competitions, and scoring totals all behave differently than in the regular season, and bettors who ignore that are leaving money on the table.

The arguments

Preseason betting is skill, not randomness, and the proof is in how sportsbooks price it. Fezik argues that if the "it's all random" crowd were forced to run a sportsbook and set preseason lines, they would lose so much money they'd get fired — evidence that real edges exist in this market. Tucker doesn't push back on this but notes it still isn't easy, pointing to Fezik's own rough Hall of Fame Game slate (he went 2-8 on personal bets, including two Arizona props that lost on the final play).

Scoring is trending up, and defenses playing vanilla schemes is the reason. Fezik notes the Hall of Fame Game has now gone over the total five straight years, breaking what used to be an automatic under. He credits lack of blitzing and disorganized backup-heavy defenses for inflating totals, and specifically says he'd lean toward overs on any preseason total below 37 points this week, since one punt return, pick-six, or strip-sack can cheaply add seven points.

Mobile backup quarterbacks are a specific preseason profit source. Both hosts cite Haynes King and Carson Beck playing better than expected in the Hall of Fame Game, and Fezik argues a scrambling backup QB is especially valuable in the second half of preseason games, when offensive lines are unsynchronized and defenders are out of position. Tucker connects this to a point from the prior week's show about mobile quarterbacks generally thriving in preseason chaos.

Home field is overpriced, so target road teams catching one to two and a half points. Fezik says home field is worth roughly one point in reality but still gets priced as if it matters more, and because preseason games frequently land on a one- or two-point margin (teams often go for two after garbage-time touchdowns), getting plus-2 or plus-2.5 on the road team is disproportionately valuable. He explicitly says plus-3 or plus-3.5 is not the same kind of value in preseason, unlike in the regular season.

Certain coaches simply shouldn't be trusted straight-up in preseason, and public bias distorts other lines. Fezik flags Dan Quinn's Washington teams as historically bad against the spread in preseason (7-17), and Zac Taylor's Bengals as unbettable early in seasons and in preseason — though he notes Taylor has said starters may again get real run in Week 1 because Cincinnati wants to avoid slow regular-season starts, which could give Cincinnati a first-half edge before fading with third-stringers. He also flags Dallas (9-21 ATS) as a team the public overbets due to star power, and cautions that new-team success (like John Harbaugh with the Giants) isn't automatic just because a coach performed well in preseason elsewhere — Harbaugh's own Ravens were actually 2-7 ATS in preseason over their last nine games.

A clean quarterback competition is a bettable green flag; a settled QB2/QB3 pecking order is a red flag. Fezik says nothing sharpens preseason effort like a live QB2 battle, name-checking the Eagles' Andy Dalton–Tanner McKee competition (with rookie Cole Payton also in the mix) as an example of a roster worth targeting because everyone involved is playing to win a job.

What it means for your roster

• Watch the Eagles' QB2/QB3 battle closely — Dalton, McKee, and rookie Cole Payton are all playing for a job, so expect heavier snaps and real effort from all three; useful signal for deep-league backup QB and handcuff-adjacent decisions.
• Don't overreact to Bengals starters' preseason stat lines in Week 1 — Fezik expects Zac Taylor to play his starters some in the opener, so early scoring/usage may look inflated relative to what happens once third-stringers take over.
• Discount raw box scores from mobile backup QBs in garbage time — Haynes King's and Carson Beck's strong showings were aided by vanilla, unsynchronized second-string defenses, not necessarily a true talent signal for roster stock.
• Treat total preseason scoring as elevated versus recent years — five straight overs in the Hall of Fame Game and a broader scoring uptick suggest backup-heavy offenses and skill-position battles may produce more fantasy-relevant flashes than in prior preseasons.
• Be skeptical of hype from Dallas and Washington preseason performances — both are flagged as poor barometers (Dallas due to public bias inflating expectations, Washington due to Dan Quinn's weak preseason track record), so treat standout stat lines from those rosters cautiously when setting camp-battle expectations.